Thursday, August 09, 2018

State of AR: Magic Leap has leapt

So Magic leap has finally gotten out of the shadows and is starting to ship a dev kit. The Verge had an interesting take on it you can read here. If you haven't read it and are not familiar with the Microsoft Hololens then the rest of this article will not make much sense.

As someone who has spent a bit of effort professionally trying to figure out what to do with this technology I take some exception to the overall take here. Yes, Magic Leap oversold their capability. Yes, they are behind in some ways compared to Microsoft. But... based on what I am reading here and in other takes, they are ahead in a few crucial ways.

1) A 45% increase in field of vision is huge. Is it still to small for what the dream is? Most certainly, but gains in resolution require monumental gains in processing power and this is a new realm and its form factor is working on smart phone type hardware budgets with top end desktop graphic card needs. If you really need the field of view Meta is waiting for you with open arms and a tethered headset. But being free to roam with a significant increase in field of view is a (pardon me) "leap forward". Despite its limited field of view the capability of the Hololens is still immense, and for properly focused applications you quickly forget the "window". The problem is a lot of AR is trying to do VR, or AR on the scale of VR and it just isn't what it is good at.... and yet all the obvious use cases seem to point you in that direction. You can work around it... but there is nothing obvious about finding what those keys and tricks are. The further away that field of view gets from your focal area the less it will matter in true AR applications as your periphery is able to distinguish fewer and fewer details. 

2) Getting weight off the head. The biggest single draw back to the Hololens in my opinion is the learning curve in getting it on and off. Even after more than a year of getting to do this it is not a simple thing to get it on 'right'. It is easier, and it is quicker, but it isn't simple. Worse. Even at its best, the weight is problematic. I have worn the thing hundreds of times, and gotten to put it on first time users heads a similar amount. It is an 'interesting' solution to the problem... but it isn't fantastic. Steam punk aesthetic aside, the fact the magic leap looks as easy to put on as a pair of goggles and has all the weight of the battery and computing hardware not on your head is a huge deal in the ergonomics front. I haven't gotten to use it yet but it is possible this could be enough to get it from "impressive but not quite there" form factor of Hololens, to "marginally acceptable". Things are only going to get better so long as development on this class of hardware continues.

3) Inside out Self contained 6DOF tracking of your head and a hand controller??? Did I really read that right? If that is correct and you can reach around in space with a controller with confidence approaching the Oculus Rift/HTC Vive hand controllers.... then you have consistent input via the controller (buttons, pad, combinations) and you are in a whole other world from the gaze, bloom, pinch and "idiot talking to idiot software" interface of Hololens. If you can use two controllers at once this thing could be the killer combination AR needs. 6DOF freedom of movement in a mobile package with inside out 6DOF hand tracking and consistent varied interface input capability is simply put, a MASSIVE "leap" past Hololens. Hololens starts off on the wrong foot with the ergonomics and the disappointing field of view. But the dagger in the heart is the frustrating lack of efficient user interface abilities. You are just way to limited and the interface interaction success rate needs to be 99.9% instead of 90ish in ideal circumstances, and trending much worse in less ideal environments. Even so it still has massive potential due to the lack of anything else readily available with its capabilities.

That said there is a general take the author had in this article that I agree whole heartedly with. It is concerning they don't have the mind blowing app/experience to show off. Now is the time to knock people's socks off if you have something and suffice it to say that is not the reaction of the tech world at this point.

However... This stuff is new... and no matter how big their team, they are isolated and in a bubble and have been acting in a lot of secrecy which seriously impedes the ability to find the right match. A LOT of folks are looking for a way to leverage this tech, and where there is money in it few are wanting to talk with each other about it because there is a sense of at some point this is going to take off on an exponential curve and anyone who is on the ground floor stands to reap HUGE rewards.

In this fractured environment the newness of the interface is extremely daunting. There are no established best practices. There is no magic bullet. Many existing design tropes simple do not translate. So what is happening is you are seeing the birth of a new machine/human interface paradigm in real time. Keyboard, Mouse and GUI was not an overnight thing, it took decades. AR is starting to climb the curve. It is a pity Magic leap didn't 'leap' first on the scene. From what I am reading there is a decent chance if they could have launched this at the same time as Microsofts effort it may have had enough steam with the boost in attention to AR to reach a critical mass event to launch the field into the mainstream. Granted.... not at these prices... and not without a fully realized interface and killer application.