So the time for new laptops rolled around. It was time for a change. And not just any change, we decided to make the leap from PC to Mac. So a Macbook for her and a Macbook Pro for me. Baseline models which are running $1400 and $2000 respectively.
Why Mac?:
To some extent my decision to go with Mac was a process of elimination. I have used Windows and several flavors of Linux over the past few years and have just found them lacking. All things being equal my first choice would have been to get a new XP laptop however, since Microsoft has decreed that XP will die so I would have to pay extra to get an older OS these days. Vista bites the wax tadpole and I have zero interest in paying one single penny of my money for it much less extra to get the OS I want in the first place.
All that aside Apple has had one thing I have been drooling over for the last few years. The Macbook pro design. I have been waiting patiently for the PC laptop equivalent for going on 5 years... and the closest yet has been the freakin HP netbook. Seems simple enough, make a high quality, durable case in as slim a package as possible. And yet Apple remains alone in the field of a high end aluminum laptop design. Dell is working on their magnesium composite designs but they just can't seem to get them as slim. Lenovo has gotten into 'air' territory with their exorbitantly priced X300 but still missed the boat on style. Form does not trump function. However when it comes to Laptops, form is function when they are your daily companion. A Nice Keyboard is a necessary element. A good screen is a MUST have. A Durable case a key element. Take two equally functional laptops... and the one with better form wins. The new Macbook and Macbook Pro bring all of this in spades. Clean, elegant and incredibly solid design. Superb LCD evenly backlit screen. New gigantic multi-touch capacitive glass trackpads that is also a multi-function button. Credible speakers (at least on the Pro). Glassed screen and of course aluminum case. In short the design is just out of this world.
Apple has long had a design edge but in the time that Jobs has been back he has engineered two other HUGE changes in Apple computers which is leading to their growth. OS X, and the move to Intel chips. The Intel Chips and boot camp have changed a major issue with regards to making a jump.... now you can jump back to windows even after taking the plunge if you absolutely have to. OS X provides a solid OS which makes a strong argument for not needing to jump back. It is stable. The programs are intuitive and consistent in a way Microsoft can only dream about.
The Apple Premium:
Much has been made of the premium nature of Apple with regards to equipment cost. Apple does not go after the bottom of the market. But if you compare them with equivalent PC equipment (ie of similar quality, spec etc...) you will find they are certainly not the most expensive. A great example is the cost comparison between the Mac Air and it's only real competitor in the Lenovo X300 and X301. Suffice it to say that Macbook's and Macbook Pro's are very competitively prices for the specs they bring to the table.
The Transition:
Once upon a time the switch from PC to Mac was one of no return. Incompatible file formats, completely different software etc... meant you faced a completely new world and often couldn't even talk to the old one. Today? AIM, GMAIL, Yahoo Mail, POP Mail, Exchange accounts make for a seamless transfer. If you know all your account information then you can be up and running on typical activities in no time. Itunes is by and large the most common media management option and it is cross platform these days. If you get by with windows media player then you probably have an issue... at least if you have a large wmv collection as there is no solution for that out of the box with Mac.... just as there are no out of the box solutions for quicktime on PC.
However think of it this way... if your most common interactions with a computer involves a url, mp3 or mpg... PC, Mac or LINUX makes relatively little difference these days. And Mac is probably easier to deal with than PC. In a week of playing with OS X and its default applications I am in awe. Apple has long been about ease of use but it has been elevated to high art since the old days. What quirks there are largely are consistent meaning you only have to learn them once and then they apply pretty much every where else. OS X has a consistency of design that Microsoft users can only dream of.
The remaining major concern of such swaps has to remain Microsoft Office. Currently Office users have relatively little issue since a current version of Office for Mac is available ( this has been an on and off again situation with Mac software ). So while it is not free you can make a relatively easy transition either by buying the apple native suite, or by loading up your existing office disc in an XP install on boot camp or fusion. For those just worried about being able to to office type tasks you should remember that open office is free and quite capable... and can even read/edit all but the newest office formats. There is also the iWork suite available very reasonably from apple (70 bucks).
Basic file transfers which used to be such a bane of OS swaps is now almost childishly simple with usb thumb drives, or even external hard drives.
Conclusion:
I think the best way to sum up our choice is that the question is no longer " Why Mac?". The questions is now "Why NOT Mac?".
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Update: Nokia N810
A while back I wrote up some thoughts on the Nokia N-810 internet tablet right after I bought it. I wanted to take some time to revisit it now that I have owned it for several months (Jan - Sept '08).
So I guess the single biggest question I had prior to owning this thing was how much I would actually use it. The answer has been mixed. At first I toyed with it all the time. I read a few books with FBReader and think it does well enough that I have considered using it as a E-book reader. Battery life is the limiter there. Once the newness wore off itgot relegated to my backpack for 2-3 months and rarely came out. The UI was painfully slow way to often. Anyway, one of the largest reasons I got it was for long trips. I finally went on one, a road trip from Alabama to Boston and back covering just over a week. And it came ito it's own. E-mail and web access along with periodic GPS information on the road made this a very valuable trip companion. Its easy to use sizeover my laptop largely negated any problems with the sometimes slow UI that had been responsible for its long naps in my rucksack. Anyway after I got back I became determined to tinker with it again and see if I could not begin using it more consistently. But after I got back I once again was generally to annoyed with the user interface to break it out rather than wait for time on a laptop etc... A huge factor in all this was the lack of stability in the RSS reader and the E-mail application. These represented the bulk of what i wanted to access with the device and they were some of the buggiest pieces of software I had ever used. I initially thought my ability to take notes with my bluetooth keyboard would keep it employed but even that prooved problematic. The keyboard connection had serious problems with duplicating keystrokes or failing to register all together. I tried using it for a couple of weeks but eventually found myself reaching more and more for my legal pad when I knew I had to take serious notes on something.
Enter Diablo. The Diablo update is annoying for folks on earlier versions of 2008 because it requires a full re-flash of the device. This means an awful lot of tweaks and such are lost and backing up this device can be frustrating pain. However I finally decided that since I just was not using it all that often I didn't have anything to lose so I just flashed it and dealt with whatever I lost along the way. Diablo, or the lack of crap loaded thanks to the re-flash or some combination led to a much more responsive device. Apps loaded faster, web updated quicker and youtube capability was back on the web browser (had to use a standalone application shortly after getting the device originally due to a flash update issue). Most importantly the RSS reader and E-mail applications gained some much needed stability. Once I got my feeds all in order and IMAP access to G-mail up and running it quickly became my default device around the house. So I have been using it now for the better part of 2 months on a daily basis and my laptop at home only gets used when I really need a keyboard or larger screen. It is also experience a revival at work as the connection with my igo keyboard is now much more consistent and I am able to use it as my primary note taking device.
Overall:
I have had my ups and downs with this device, and for a little while I thought I was going to have to reverse many of my previous thoughts on this device. The Diablo update saved it in my eyes and now it is largely upholding my early impressions. Still once I get down to it I think this is superb hardware hampered by half assed software. I somewhat over estimated the ability of the maemo community to plug some gaps. I really thought Nokia or the community would gin up some sort of serious PIM application and office document capacity. I came to the understanding that Maemo was also severely flawed which led to the device spending 3-4 months of the 10 I have owned it largely unused. The Diablo update has not removed all the problems but it has made the device useable in several key areas for me. It is good enough now that the device has become genuinely useful.
Currently its biggest problem in my eyes is that it just does not integrate well with my other toys. By contrast my HTC TynTyn is an extension of my work and personal computing in ways I can only dream about the N-810 being... largely thanks to tightly integrated Office and Outlook clients. The one boon of suffering through Microsoft's mobile OS.
I make no retraction on my words regarding the GPS. It is horrible and the new update and AGPS beta do not seem to really improove anything.
Song/picture/movie handling (PMP duties) are not good compared to I-pod but capable. The biggest problem being that the fancy management programs like Canola over taxes the hardware and video codec support is spotty (and that is putting it nicely). A lot of the warts could be overlooked if it just plain responded faster... but pictures are not fast to load, and video's are just a joke. Music management is good for small collections but large collections get unwieldy in a hurry.
For the future:
I am seriously looking at the 3g I-Phone in part because this device HAS become so useful. The more time I have spent with the apple golden child the more I am swayed by its one crowning glory. Immediate touch screen response. The on screen keyboard while annoying is 'good enough'. The two things holding me back are the keyboard and the lack of tethering. But the bulk of my tethering these days is to the tablet... not my laptop. So I likely would not feel the need for tethering. The more I have used it the more impressed I have become with I-phones ability to get the most out of its screen. The more I experience the responsiveness the more annoyed I get with the relative un-responsiveness of my HTC Tyn Tyn and the tablet... not to mention the two devices vrs one I could have in the I-phone.
When I made my initial decision to buy the Nokia the apple toys were not in the running for three reasons. I-Phone lack of 3g, Touch lack of bluetooth tethering and both lacking Exchange support. The I-Phone now has 3g and Exchange sync. While it is still lacking on the bluetooth front much of that can be gotten via jail breaking.
If I were buying new tech right now the 3g I-Phone is what I would get especially if they go to a 32gb version. The wimax tablet is a non-starter for me and the new hardware has yet to show its face... and in the end I am not sure I will sink money into a device like this again without Exchange/Office document capability. Also in the running is the HTC Touch Pro and Touch HD. Both have screens rivaling the Tablet with cellular capability AND full exchange integration. However I am keeping a close eye on Android. They have already loaded early versions on the tablet and I imagine that work will continue especially now that devices with it are finally starting to hit shelves. If Google nails exchange capability (something they are committed to doing they say) then the tablet will re-enter my thoughts. Maemo is tragically flawed at this time and barring a more dedicated support it will drag this nice piece of hardware down with it.
--
Posted By Tmortn to TANSTAAFL at 9/30/2008 01:21:00 PM
So I guess the single biggest question I had prior to owning this thing was how much I would actually use it. The answer has been mixed. At first I toyed with it all the time. I read a few books with FBReader and think it does well enough that I have considered using it as a E-book reader. Battery life is the limiter there. Once the newness wore off itgot relegated to my backpack for 2-3 months and rarely came out. The UI was painfully slow way to often. Anyway, one of the largest reasons I got it was for long trips. I finally went on one, a road trip from Alabama to Boston and back covering just over a week. And it came ito it's own. E-mail and web access along with periodic GPS information on the road made this a very valuable trip companion. Its easy to use sizeover my laptop largely negated any problems with the sometimes slow UI that had been responsible for its long naps in my rucksack. Anyway after I got back I became determined to tinker with it again and see if I could not begin using it more consistently. But after I got back I once again was generally to annoyed with the user interface to break it out rather than wait for time on a laptop etc... A huge factor in all this was the lack of stability in the RSS reader and the E-mail application. These represented the bulk of what i wanted to access with the device and they were some of the buggiest pieces of software I had ever used. I initially thought my ability to take notes with my bluetooth keyboard would keep it employed but even that prooved problematic. The keyboard connection had serious problems with duplicating keystrokes or failing to register all together. I tried using it for a couple of weeks but eventually found myself reaching more and more for my legal pad when I knew I had to take serious notes on something.
Enter Diablo. The Diablo update is annoying for folks on earlier versions of 2008 because it requires a full re-flash of the device. This means an awful lot of tweaks and such are lost and backing up this device can be frustrating pain. However I finally decided that since I just was not using it all that often I didn't have anything to lose so I just flashed it and dealt with whatever I lost along the way. Diablo, or the lack of crap loaded thanks to the re-flash or some combination led to a much more responsive device. Apps loaded faster, web updated quicker and youtube capability was back on the web browser (had to use a standalone application shortly after getting the device originally due to a flash update issue). Most importantly the RSS reader and E-mail applications gained some much needed stability. Once I got my feeds all in order and IMAP access to G-mail up and running it quickly became my default device around the house. So I have been using it now for the better part of 2 months on a daily basis and my laptop at home only gets used when I really need a keyboard or larger screen. It is also experience a revival at work as the connection with my igo keyboard is now much more consistent and I am able to use it as my primary note taking device.
Overall:
I have had my ups and downs with this device, and for a little while I thought I was going to have to reverse many of my previous thoughts on this device. The Diablo update saved it in my eyes and now it is largely upholding my early impressions. Still once I get down to it I think this is superb hardware hampered by half assed software. I somewhat over estimated the ability of the maemo community to plug some gaps. I really thought Nokia or the community would gin up some sort of serious PIM application and office document capacity. I came to the understanding that Maemo was also severely flawed which led to the device spending 3-4 months of the 10 I have owned it largely unused. The Diablo update has not removed all the problems but it has made the device useable in several key areas for me. It is good enough now that the device has become genuinely useful.
Currently its biggest problem in my eyes is that it just does not integrate well with my other toys. By contrast my HTC TynTyn is an extension of my work and personal computing in ways I can only dream about the N-810 being... largely thanks to tightly integrated Office and Outlook clients. The one boon of suffering through Microsoft's mobile OS.
I make no retraction on my words regarding the GPS. It is horrible and the new update and AGPS beta do not seem to really improove anything.
Song/picture/movie handling (PMP duties) are not good compared to I-pod but capable. The biggest problem being that the fancy management programs like Canola over taxes the hardware and video codec support is spotty (and that is putting it nicely). A lot of the warts could be overlooked if it just plain responded faster... but pictures are not fast to load, and video's are just a joke. Music management is good for small collections but large collections get unwieldy in a hurry.
For the future:
I am seriously looking at the 3g I-Phone in part because this device HAS become so useful. The more time I have spent with the apple golden child the more I am swayed by its one crowning glory. Immediate touch screen response. The on screen keyboard while annoying is 'good enough'. The two things holding me back are the keyboard and the lack of tethering. But the bulk of my tethering these days is to the tablet... not my laptop. So I likely would not feel the need for tethering. The more I have used it the more impressed I have become with I-phones ability to get the most out of its screen. The more I experience the responsiveness the more annoyed I get with the relative un-responsiveness of my HTC Tyn Tyn and the tablet... not to mention the two devices vrs one I could have in the I-phone.
When I made my initial decision to buy the Nokia the apple toys were not in the running for three reasons. I-Phone lack of 3g, Touch lack of bluetooth tethering and both lacking Exchange support. The I-Phone now has 3g and Exchange sync. While it is still lacking on the bluetooth front much of that can be gotten via jail breaking.
If I were buying new tech right now the 3g I-Phone is what I would get especially if they go to a 32gb version. The wimax tablet is a non-starter for me and the new hardware has yet to show its face... and in the end I am not sure I will sink money into a device like this again without Exchange/Office document capability. Also in the running is the HTC Touch Pro and Touch HD. Both have screens rivaling the Tablet with cellular capability AND full exchange integration. However I am keeping a close eye on Android. They have already loaded early versions on the tablet and I imagine that work will continue especially now that devices with it are finally starting to hit shelves. If Google nails exchange capability (something they are committed to doing they say) then the tablet will re-enter my thoughts. Maemo is tragically flawed at this time and barring a more dedicated support it will drag this nice piece of hardware down with it.
--
Posted By Tmortn to TANSTAAFL at 9/30/2008 01:21:00 PM
Presidential Update: Nomination, VP's and the Financial Crisis
So it has been a while since I talked politics and much has happened. Obama managed to wrest the nomination from Clinton. I for one was not surprised at Hillary's initial reaction when Obama got the delgates. I was surprised when she back tracked on her vow to fight all the way to the convention in less than 48 hours. I really would love to know the details behind that change of heart. It could have been her already regrouping for another run down the road. Because if she had taken the fight all the way in I think all bridges would have been burnt. The Democratic nomination process got pretty dirty towards the end and I think it let McCain steal a march on them.
Of course we now have the VP nominations to talk about. I think enough dust has settled from the Palin decision to take a better look at it. But first let us talk about Biden. The choice is one I have a hard time understanding from Obama. He road 'change' and 'new' and 'not typical washington' all the way to the Democratic nomination. He flaunted his lack of credentials to a large extent by showing how inept those who had them were already proving to be. Then he picks a VP candidate who pretty much embodies all of those characteristics. Same old washington? Check. Not new? Check. Not someone credible as representing non-partisan change politics? Check. Biden is about as stereotypical politician as you can get this side of an SNL skit. The only reason I could see going that route would be to add some 'gravitas' to the ticket and Biden just does not add that. He is most famous for telling a wheelchair bound person to stand up, and for plagiarizing speeches. On the other hand he is all and all unremarkable and safe in terms of VP picks. He might help swing his home state, he is aggressive and can walk a more dangerous line in terms of his interactions with the opposition. In otherwords picking him was a page out of Politics 101. A very disconcerting move in my mind for a candidate predicated on changing politics.
On the flip side we have McCain breaking new ground, anointing a wet behind the ears freshly minted Governor of Alaska. 2 years state governor experience and prior to that mayor of a flyspeck bush town in the hinterlands of Seward's icebox. To say the least she was not on the radar, and she is NOT politics as usual when it comes to VP picks. In short she is the kind of pick I much more expected from Obama. She enhances aspects of McCain in the way Biden dims down aspects of Obama... the choices here could not be more diametrically opposed. Any arguments about her ability to perform her job or even to step into presidential shoes if McCain dies are largely moot because it would be hard to argue she has less experience than Obama. To debate the differences will only hurt Obama because democrats cannot not shine a light on Palin in that regard that will not also land on Obama. I for one think Palin would be a better choice than Biden in terms of being president. On the other hand I have compared the Republican effort in this election as doomed to repeat Mondales fate when facing Regan... I didn't think they would go so far as to pick a stand in for Geraldine Feraro to boot :-) Ok that is it for reffering to the second major party nomination of a woman for VP and the first republican nod. In my mind it just is not an issue.
So the stage is set. McCain has rolled the dice and for the most part I think he succeeded in showing folks he is still a Maverick, not just a tired cliche. Obama has moved to the center a bit to solidify his shaky party. The question now is did Obama dial it back to much or did McCain reach to far? For the most part it does not matter. Forget the stage that has been set by the past year of posturing by the candidates. The scene has been changed and the stage is fresh. Financial problems are the new Iraq. It is not going to be fixed quickly. In all likely hood it is going to get worse before it gets better. Right now I honestly believe that a presidential win for either candidate is going to be a poison pill "Herbert Hoover" style. For those not up on presidential history, Hoover was the president in office when October 29th 1929 happend and it rapidly torpedoed his administration through no real fault of his own. Of course this situation is slightly different as this election is rapidly going to become focused on this particular problem. So they will have an advantage Hoover did not have. But I do not think that is going to be sufficient to shelter them from the fallout of the first serious economic meltdown of the new millennium. In one sense it could be far worse as they will spend the next couple of months promising they can avert and/or fix the problem and then be clearly 'to blame' when their solutions fail to work. It isn't that their plans have no chance. I just don't see them being able to back out years/decades of problem rapidly enough to matter come the next election cycle. The current attention span of public discourse just is not sufficient which is a shame. To make matters worse the public patience has already been severely tried by the debacle that has become Iraq and the war on terror.
Financial Crisis:
This crisis is nothing new. We saw a massive downturn in the late 90's when the tech bubble burst. We saw the savings and loan scandal in the late 80's and now we have the sub prime crisis. They ALL have a very common thread. Irresponsible high risk economic decision making on a MASSIVE scale. What makes this one worse than the previous two is the scale and distribution of the risk. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac alone comprised 12 trillion dollars of assets, much of which has been poisoned by the sub prime meltdown. The securities floated from many other institutions based on the same mess have circulated the globe. A very large part of me wants to say just let them lie in the graves they dug, consequences be damned. The problem with that is this has the potential to destroy multiple national economies as we now know them. How so? Economies are largely based on trust. The higher flying international trade has gotten the more based on trust it has become. Investment is all about trust. I am going to give you X amount of Money in hopes I will get Y amount back. When faith in that process dies it kills investment. As for what actually drives that trust? Good luck finding out or explaining it. Reading tea leaves, monitoring skirt lengths or even super bowl victories have as good a track record of predicting it as 'expert opinion'. What really is not up for debate is that when trust in the process fails it is devastating. Basic economic interaction today is based on trust. Trust that a piece of paper is worth goods and services. Stop and think about that for a second. We accept money in exchange for the lion's share of our efforts through the day. We do this because it is something we trust to be more productive than going out and trying to meet our needs in other ways... like hunting. Trust in the investment processes is fundamental to the monetary system. Without it banks are a non-starter. They can only afford to hold your money if their is profit in it for them, and without investment there is no way for banks to make money short of taking yours. That in turn reduces the appeal of banks in general which starts a vicious cycle. If you want a crash course in some of the potential side effects study post WW 1 German economics, or for a more recent example check out Zimbabwe.
Anyway, when you hit times like this it takes wide reaching leadership from the top to chart a course out of it. In short, problems like this are why government exists. The problem is we have been so prosperous for so long that we have allowed our government to invent new roles and responsibilities for itself and now we are stretched to far to react well to problems like this one. In short, the US government is just as over leveraged as the whole sub prime mortgage industry. Thus we are in a catch 22. A card government has to play is the bottomless bucket of cash card... IE we spend it first and ask where the hell it came from later. It is something of a slight of hand trick and the idea is that the results of spending the money eventually serves to justify from whence it came. Sort of arguing that the chicken comes before the egg, or that the ends justify the means. The problem with that method is it can backfire and it might become obvious to everyone that the egg does indeed come before the chicken and that the means are as important as the end result. Which is right? There is no way to tell. To the victors go the spoils, or in other word what actually happens will in fact determine what was right. The problem is you can only pull so much money out of a hat before people begin to question money period... and the US government has been pulling money from nowhere for quite a while now. You may not think of it as such but I am sure you are familiar with the term 'Deficit spending' as it has been a standard sound bite for most of the war on Terror. When the common person engages in deficit spending we pull out a credit card. It is the same for the government in that they spend money they do not have. The difference is the US government doing it is like you doing it when you own the credit card company. If you really consider that for a while I think you will begin to see the problems. A little is fine, a lot bankrupts the company.
Let me try to place the proposed financial system bailout in perspective. The number being thrown about for it is 700 billion dollars. 1000 billion is a trillion. Government revenue for 2007 was estimated at about 2.4 trillion... or 2,400 billion. Translation. The proposed bailout represents about 30% of the US governments income from 2007. For every $1 dollar in taxes you spent that means $0.30 would go to the bailout. The problem is before the bailout the government already had a budget spending something like $1.14 dollars for every dollar they received. In other words the US government was already spending more money they they collected, and now they are talking about spending ~30% more. Another way to look at this is the government did not even collect more than 700billion total until 1985. The only time we have seen deficit spending in that range was at the hight of the cold war and Reganomics... and even Regan only got it up to 25% ('82). The current 2008 budget is estimating 13.9% deficit spending. This would ADD another 30% to toss us out there at 43.9%. Imagine if you will... that you went out and overan your household budget by 43%. That is you had to go on credit for almost half of what you earn in a year. Assuming 10% of your budget was discrectionary (able to spend on anything) it would take you 4+ years of spending it on nothing else to catch back up. Or you have to impact other budget items... like saving for retirement etc... You could make minimum payments to your card and ease the pain in return for paying back craploads more money over a much longer term. Now imagine if you did this every year. Sooner or later you get so far behind it just does not work and you end up spending all available money just to deal with interest. The US government is rapidly working itself into a similar situation.
Something has GOT to give and there are only 3 chunks of government spending large enough to even think about carving this kind of money out of in any kind of reasonable time frame. They are DOD, Social Security, and Medicare. All of them sit around 20%, or in other words those three things account for 60% of the US budget year in and year out. Social Security is the piggy bank that gets raided when we 'deficit spend' and it is overdrawn to say the least so we would have to pull from somewhere else. The only other choice is to produce more money. In the past that effectively meant sacking another country for their wealth. Today with paper currency a choice is also to just print more of it. Taking money from any of the three major budget areas has severe consequences. Generating money from thin air has even more severe consequences... and conquest is really no longer a viable option. Now, sit down and try to figure out how you juggle the problems and I think you will see why I think Obama and McCain are completely and utterly screwed. Change... it is an over tired cliche, but change is coming no matter who wins and not just because it is in their campaign slogans. Change is coming courtesy of the financial crisis, ready or not here it comes.
Of course we now have the VP nominations to talk about. I think enough dust has settled from the Palin decision to take a better look at it. But first let us talk about Biden. The choice is one I have a hard time understanding from Obama. He road 'change' and 'new' and 'not typical washington' all the way to the Democratic nomination. He flaunted his lack of credentials to a large extent by showing how inept those who had them were already proving to be. Then he picks a VP candidate who pretty much embodies all of those characteristics. Same old washington? Check. Not new? Check. Not someone credible as representing non-partisan change politics? Check. Biden is about as stereotypical politician as you can get this side of an SNL skit. The only reason I could see going that route would be to add some 'gravitas' to the ticket and Biden just does not add that. He is most famous for telling a wheelchair bound person to stand up, and for plagiarizing speeches. On the other hand he is all and all unremarkable and safe in terms of VP picks. He might help swing his home state, he is aggressive and can walk a more dangerous line in terms of his interactions with the opposition. In otherwords picking him was a page out of Politics 101. A very disconcerting move in my mind for a candidate predicated on changing politics.
On the flip side we have McCain breaking new ground, anointing a wet behind the ears freshly minted Governor of Alaska. 2 years state governor experience and prior to that mayor of a flyspeck bush town in the hinterlands of Seward's icebox. To say the least she was not on the radar, and she is NOT politics as usual when it comes to VP picks. In short she is the kind of pick I much more expected from Obama. She enhances aspects of McCain in the way Biden dims down aspects of Obama... the choices here could not be more diametrically opposed. Any arguments about her ability to perform her job or even to step into presidential shoes if McCain dies are largely moot because it would be hard to argue she has less experience than Obama. To debate the differences will only hurt Obama because democrats cannot not shine a light on Palin in that regard that will not also land on Obama. I for one think Palin would be a better choice than Biden in terms of being president. On the other hand I have compared the Republican effort in this election as doomed to repeat Mondales fate when facing Regan... I didn't think they would go so far as to pick a stand in for Geraldine Feraro to boot :-) Ok that is it for reffering to the second major party nomination of a woman for VP and the first republican nod. In my mind it just is not an issue.
So the stage is set. McCain has rolled the dice and for the most part I think he succeeded in showing folks he is still a Maverick, not just a tired cliche. Obama has moved to the center a bit to solidify his shaky party. The question now is did Obama dial it back to much or did McCain reach to far? For the most part it does not matter. Forget the stage that has been set by the past year of posturing by the candidates. The scene has been changed and the stage is fresh. Financial problems are the new Iraq. It is not going to be fixed quickly. In all likely hood it is going to get worse before it gets better. Right now I honestly believe that a presidential win for either candidate is going to be a poison pill "Herbert Hoover" style. For those not up on presidential history, Hoover was the president in office when October 29th 1929 happend and it rapidly torpedoed his administration through no real fault of his own. Of course this situation is slightly different as this election is rapidly going to become focused on this particular problem. So they will have an advantage Hoover did not have. But I do not think that is going to be sufficient to shelter them from the fallout of the first serious economic meltdown of the new millennium. In one sense it could be far worse as they will spend the next couple of months promising they can avert and/or fix the problem and then be clearly 'to blame' when their solutions fail to work. It isn't that their plans have no chance. I just don't see them being able to back out years/decades of problem rapidly enough to matter come the next election cycle. The current attention span of public discourse just is not sufficient which is a shame. To make matters worse the public patience has already been severely tried by the debacle that has become Iraq and the war on terror.
Financial Crisis:
This crisis is nothing new. We saw a massive downturn in the late 90's when the tech bubble burst. We saw the savings and loan scandal in the late 80's and now we have the sub prime crisis. They ALL have a very common thread. Irresponsible high risk economic decision making on a MASSIVE scale. What makes this one worse than the previous two is the scale and distribution of the risk. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac alone comprised 12 trillion dollars of assets, much of which has been poisoned by the sub prime meltdown. The securities floated from many other institutions based on the same mess have circulated the globe. A very large part of me wants to say just let them lie in the graves they dug, consequences be damned. The problem with that is this has the potential to destroy multiple national economies as we now know them. How so? Economies are largely based on trust. The higher flying international trade has gotten the more based on trust it has become. Investment is all about trust. I am going to give you X amount of Money in hopes I will get Y amount back. When faith in that process dies it kills investment. As for what actually drives that trust? Good luck finding out or explaining it. Reading tea leaves, monitoring skirt lengths or even super bowl victories have as good a track record of predicting it as 'expert opinion'. What really is not up for debate is that when trust in the process fails it is devastating. Basic economic interaction today is based on trust. Trust that a piece of paper is worth goods and services. Stop and think about that for a second. We accept money in exchange for the lion's share of our efforts through the day. We do this because it is something we trust to be more productive than going out and trying to meet our needs in other ways... like hunting. Trust in the investment processes is fundamental to the monetary system. Without it banks are a non-starter. They can only afford to hold your money if their is profit in it for them, and without investment there is no way for banks to make money short of taking yours. That in turn reduces the appeal of banks in general which starts a vicious cycle. If you want a crash course in some of the potential side effects study post WW 1 German economics, or for a more recent example check out Zimbabwe.
Anyway, when you hit times like this it takes wide reaching leadership from the top to chart a course out of it. In short, problems like this are why government exists. The problem is we have been so prosperous for so long that we have allowed our government to invent new roles and responsibilities for itself and now we are stretched to far to react well to problems like this one. In short, the US government is just as over leveraged as the whole sub prime mortgage industry. Thus we are in a catch 22. A card government has to play is the bottomless bucket of cash card... IE we spend it first and ask where the hell it came from later. It is something of a slight of hand trick and the idea is that the results of spending the money eventually serves to justify from whence it came. Sort of arguing that the chicken comes before the egg, or that the ends justify the means. The problem with that method is it can backfire and it might become obvious to everyone that the egg does indeed come before the chicken and that the means are as important as the end result. Which is right? There is no way to tell. To the victors go the spoils, or in other word what actually happens will in fact determine what was right. The problem is you can only pull so much money out of a hat before people begin to question money period... and the US government has been pulling money from nowhere for quite a while now. You may not think of it as such but I am sure you are familiar with the term 'Deficit spending' as it has been a standard sound bite for most of the war on Terror. When the common person engages in deficit spending we pull out a credit card. It is the same for the government in that they spend money they do not have. The difference is the US government doing it is like you doing it when you own the credit card company. If you really consider that for a while I think you will begin to see the problems. A little is fine, a lot bankrupts the company.
Let me try to place the proposed financial system bailout in perspective. The number being thrown about for it is 700 billion dollars. 1000 billion is a trillion. Government revenue for 2007 was estimated at about 2.4 trillion... or 2,400 billion. Translation. The proposed bailout represents about 30% of the US governments income from 2007. For every $1 dollar in taxes you spent that means $0.30 would go to the bailout. The problem is before the bailout the government already had a budget spending something like $1.14 dollars for every dollar they received. In other words the US government was already spending more money they they collected, and now they are talking about spending ~30% more. Another way to look at this is the government did not even collect more than 700billion total until 1985. The only time we have seen deficit spending in that range was at the hight of the cold war and Reganomics... and even Regan only got it up to 25% ('82). The current 2008 budget is estimating 13.9% deficit spending. This would ADD another 30% to toss us out there at 43.9%. Imagine if you will... that you went out and overan your household budget by 43%. That is you had to go on credit for almost half of what you earn in a year. Assuming 10% of your budget was discrectionary (able to spend on anything) it would take you 4+ years of spending it on nothing else to catch back up. Or you have to impact other budget items... like saving for retirement etc... You could make minimum payments to your card and ease the pain in return for paying back craploads more money over a much longer term. Now imagine if you did this every year. Sooner or later you get so far behind it just does not work and you end up spending all available money just to deal with interest. The US government is rapidly working itself into a similar situation.
Something has GOT to give and there are only 3 chunks of government spending large enough to even think about carving this kind of money out of in any kind of reasonable time frame. They are DOD, Social Security, and Medicare. All of them sit around 20%, or in other words those three things account for 60% of the US budget year in and year out. Social Security is the piggy bank that gets raided when we 'deficit spend' and it is overdrawn to say the least so we would have to pull from somewhere else. The only other choice is to produce more money. In the past that effectively meant sacking another country for their wealth. Today with paper currency a choice is also to just print more of it. Taking money from any of the three major budget areas has severe consequences. Generating money from thin air has even more severe consequences... and conquest is really no longer a viable option. Now, sit down and try to figure out how you juggle the problems and I think you will see why I think Obama and McCain are completely and utterly screwed. Change... it is an over tired cliche, but change is coming no matter who wins and not just because it is in their campaign slogans. Change is coming courtesy of the financial crisis, ready or not here it comes.
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