I have been talking about it since Hillary took a seat in the Senate. Now it looks like the first few shots have been fired officially with the NY GOP starting up its "Stop Hillary Now" fundraising. Personally I think such a move this early only serves to show just how scared republicans are of Hillary and they should be. I have little doubt she will make a run... and a strong one at that. The Dems just don't have anyone else to point to as a candidate and she has the motzy. The real question now is if she wants to be re-elected in '06? Two years is a long time to campaign out of the spotlight but at the same time the Clinton's are the best Democratic fundraisers in history.
My call right now is that she will either step down without standing for re-election or put on an all out blitz for re-election. The last thing she would want is a failed campaign to start off her '08 bid. Both options have their merits, however not standing for re-election means breaking cover with 3 years to '08 and I don't see that happening. So two things to look for. One, no mention of a presidential bid. Two, no promises not to leave her post for the presidency. You will probbaly see the GOP try to force her into a similar promise to the one she made and has held to from her '00 campaign. If she gets forced into that then to make a run after being re-elected would risk destroying the credibility she has built by not seeking the VP nomination in '04.
Given that something dosn't cause it to fizzle (and there is plenty that could go wrong) a Hillary campaign will be simply fascinating from an academic standpoint. She would be the first credible female candidate. If she wins then the presidency will have been split in its office for more than 2 decades between two families. And of course there is the real wild card in the deck.... Bill. Frankly Bill is the key to a bid by Hillary. How the public percieves him, how the parties percieve him. Management of Bill's impact on the election will be the key to success or defeat in my eyes. Not that I think Hillary is a front for another Bill term or anything like that... anyone who thinks that woman is interested in playing second fiddle is deluding themselves. But to think an Ex-president as the spouse of a candidate will not play a major role is just wishfull thinking.
As for how I feel personally about the possibility? I am not a fan of either of the major parties or their candidates. I am kinda glad W can't run for a 3rd term... the republicans do not really seem to have a real strong candidate to replace him at this point. Condoleza Rice presents a rather intruiging option but she just dosn't have the political currency. She could wind up being a VP candidate though. Guilliani would be the odds on favorit at this point but I wouldn't rule out Cheny (scary as that seems). What would I like to see? How about an outraged Colin Powell running on his own? If the Dems do back Hillary and Condi makes the VP ticket you are going to have change in the wind and people are going to be far more willing to re-evaluate who they vote for becasue for the first time in a loooong time they will have something different confronting them at election time. Thus '08 represents a potential crack in the armor of the two major parties for the right 3rd party candidate. Powel is one of the few with enough appeal that he might could make something of it... but his age will be a serious consideration for '08. Not that I think it will happen. One Powell just dosn't have the drive, and two, the election process is just too heavily weighted against a 3rd party candidate.... But oh would it make for a hell of a race!!
No comments:
Post a Comment