Well it has been four weeks since my last Braves look and low and behold they are out in front of the division. Thank god the Phillies are off to such a rough start. I would hate to be in a hoss race with those bats. As is if they don't get their act together soon they are going to have to come flying down the home stretch just to be in contention. Course the Marlins pitching is off the hook and that is shaping up to be one heck of a race. Lot of season left, but baring any major equation changes (injuries etc...) its going to come down to pitching. The Marlins have more sticks and they are going to have their say before this is over so I hold to saying we have to have the best pitching in the division... and right now we only have the best in the most important category(wins) and trail in most other marks.
I like the Nationals but where the Braves are clicking along in cruise control right now and the Marlins are struggling at the plate, the Nationals are playing lights out across the board. It isn't impossible they could sustain it the whole way through but the odds are very much against it. If they keep it this tight up to the all star break we could well have a good three way stretch race and if the Phillies wake up this will be the most exciting division in baseball.
Areas of concern.
It is taking Kolb longer than I would like to get back to what he is good at... pitching ahead in the count. Pretty much all of his problems have been due to working behind in the count. This is good and bad news. The bad news is he is having confidence issues and those have a habit of lingering with a closer. The good news is he is still getting saves, and he is not pitching his game. If he were in a groove and getting rocked I would be far more worried than I am.
Estrada is still not producing quite the same. However he still has a clutch habit and his K/walk ratio is just fine. All in all the signs are good and over the course of the season it is likely his average will rise from his current dissapointing .240 level
Thompson going down is a problem. We really can't afford mediocity from the starters... in the long run having thompson out for an extended period of time will catch up to us unless we get a surprise performance for whoever steps into his shoes. Say what you want about Thompson but his is 11-3 with a 2.53 era since July last year. That is outstanding.
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