It has been a while since I have visited the topic of the next presidential election and particularly the status of former first Lady Hillary Clinton and my thoughts on her upcoming bid for the next presidency.
Despite the fact some thought she would not, she has officially declared her candidacy. For any that have read through my blog they know The upcoming presidential election is one I view with a great deal of interest.
The New Al Gore
Hillary in 08
For the most part I stand by my original Thoughts mentioned there though it seems the new runner in the game is Barak Obama. I do not know too much about Barak but I will be looking into him and putting up my detailed thoughts at a later time... but from the standpoint of an interesting election he poses the added dimension of a credible African American candidate as opposed to the 1 dimensional sensationalist characters we have been presented with through the last couple of decades (Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson etc...).
I am not to sure about my thoughts on Gore... He is still insisting he will not make another bid for the presidency and while we are still almost two years away from the election it takes time to gather the resources of a realistic presidential bid. Granted he is in a somewhat unique position in that he is already so well known. Should Gore toss his hat in the ring even at the 11th hour he has enough standing to be a serious contender for the democratic nomination. The only problem is this will be a heavily contested election and it will take some deep pockets to see it through. While waiting late isn’t a bad strategy, waiting to long can mean all the money is gone to someone else. Unless Gore has a serious War Chest already he will need to start gathering resources soon to make a serious bid.
While I think his resurgence in status is going to lead to him being back on the presidential trail, it is not impossible he may let it pass by and decide to play king maker. If he does not run then his endorsement is going to be a key element for ANY democratic candidate but for Hillary it may well be a requirement. Not because of what Gore's backing would give her... but what a lack of backing from Gore would do to her in particular. IE Gore worked with her as Vice president and if he doesn't run AND he doesn’t back her then he is as good as saying... She isn't up to the task. If he runs this is muted because he then is only saying he thinks he can do a better job and it will be up to the people to decide if that is the case or not.
If I had to call the democratic dynamics now I would list them as this.
First, Hillary has the baton and at this point it is her race to lose considering all DECLARED candidates. She must have Gore backing her if he doesn't jump into the race. If he doesn't back her then she better hope he is either not doing so because he is in the race or because he abstains entirely from backing anyone. If he backs someone else he is declaring she can't do the job... and with 8 years in the white house with her he is in a unique position to pass that judgment and people will listen to it, all the more so if he is not in the race (IE his status will not be biasing him). After that it is all in how they handle Bill. However... lemme say this. Betting against the Clinton's when it comes to politickin is like betting against the house in Vegas. The house does lose occasionally, but that isn't the way the odds tilt. Bill will behave, and the issue of his former presidency will be handled as well as it can be. The only question is if it is a fatal flaw or manageable quirk of a Hillary Campaign. Don’t think Hillary will be a Female Bill. She is a different beast entirely. She doesn’t have the glib demeanor and she isn’t nearly as smooth. She is ruthlessly ambitious and knows how to reach her audience just look at her success in New York. In some ways she actually reminds me of Dubbya in that she isn’t afraid to alienate folks in order to strongly reach those she needs. So long as they make the right assumptions about who that is in her Campaign she is the one to beat.
Barak? Well I will get more in depth with him later as I mentioned but at first blush he reminds me an awful lot of John Edwards last time around. He is a nobody who is very good in front of the camera and is in a position to speak strongly yet without substance. He has nothing to lose. In order for him to make it he has to do a Howard Dean without the melt down... that is, keep an incredible surge of popularity going all the way to the end. It has been a while since we have seen a presidential candidate with that kind of magnetism. He could be it, but odds are he is a little to far from left field at this point.
Gore. Whether he wants to run or not Gore is going to figure into this election. He seems poised to play a similar Game to the one Newt Gingrich is playing. IE I don't want it but if We (as in We the People) ask him to then he will. In short Gore knows he can't go up there in a pure politics play. His original campaign was one of politics. He was the incumbent vice president and the political machine pushed him out by default in default way and it didn’t suit him at all. Now he has popularity much more reminiscent of Clinton when he started pulling stunts like playing the sax on late night TV... only unlike Bill, Gore has his popularity building on real serious issues facing the nation. Gore may actually get drafted, and if he heeds the call of the people and continues to play it loose with just the right amount of seriousness then he will be hard to dismiss. Consider it in this light. He currently holds about 10% of democrats in polls and he has repeatedly said he ISN’T interested. That number will take a huge jump the second he tosses his hat in the ring. How much will depend on just how good an entrance he can make.
John Edwards is going to be in the mix as well. Considering he hasn't really come to my attention as anything other than his being Kerry's vice presidential nominee I doubt he is going to do anything different than he did before. IE he will be popular but not near enough to get the nomination. He may once again be a front runner for the vice president slot. Though all in all I think Barak will take that if he doesn't pull off a miracle and actually land the nomination for all the same reasons Edwards wound up on Kerry’s ticket.
Well this has been all Democratic so far. My focus on the Democrats is largely dictated by the fact it is going to be awful hard for the republicans to win. I think the race is for the democratic nomination. Bush is in the toilette ratings wise and if he could run again I just don't see him making it. While I am not on record for it I did think he was likely to win his second election. Mostly because I thought Kerry was a joke. The time was not right for people to want a change in leadership and Bush had him by the Balls with the issue of his change of heart on the War.
However the war play that effectively defeated Kerry in '04 is what has Bush not looking good now, nor the republican power structure in general. The war is a mess and there is no doubt the republicans are holding the bag for the past 4 years. It won't be impossible for a republican to win, but I think it will take a complete splintering of the democratic party, poor campaign by their nominee and a compelling republican candidate. One or two of those I can see happening but not all three.
Of interest to me is what Condi does. She has enough credibility to be a serious candidate. But the last 8 years ultimately are not going to reflect well on her. So in a sense she and anyone else tied strongly to this administration are hamstrung. If she or any of them distance themselves by blasting the administration then the democrats have them in the exact same vise the republicans put Kerry in over the war issue and it will be just as effective. The true power of Condi for the republicans may be as a harbinger of change. IE an African American Woman on the ticket. If she can't get the nomination she probably needs to be the vice president pick of choice for whoever gets it. But hey come on... who doesn't want to see the final presidential debates featuring Hillary vrs Condi?
Giuliani is on a lot of people's lips but he has a MAJOR problem. He is the same old formula, same old presentation etc etc etc. The same old same old has ended in two effective stale mates the past two elections. The Democrats know this, they feel it and they are responding because they lost. The people are tired of the same old same old and currently they are tired of republican leadership. Unless the
Giuliani campaign picks up some serious magic I think he or whoever gets the republican nomination is going to play the role of Mondale in 80. I'll take Giuliani seriously after he (or any generic political image candidate) wins the nomination if he/they put Condi on the ticket as vice president AND successfully manage to distance themselves from the current administration without going anti war. And that will be a neat trick indeed.
Lastly I want to clearly state that while I have made a big deal out of Hillary and Condi, or Sen. Clinton and Dr. Rice if you prefer, being women (and to a lesser Extent Barak). This has nothing to do with their credentials. Being a woman doesn't make them a better or worse candidate. However, election reality is that image plays a HUGE role. The simple fact that they are women, and in Dr. Rice's case a minority, means that a basic fundamental element of presidential image since the inception of the United States of America is going to change. Up until this point we have not seen a major party ticket with anything other than Old White Men. In a perfect world it wouldn't matter if the candidate where a green polka dotted hermaphroditic 35year old so long as they were the best candidate. But to date we do not live in a perfect world. The fact they (or anyone else) are women, or a member of a minority, is in no way shape form or fashion germane to the discussion of their capabilities as leaders. However, in reality it is most certainly germane to the issues of creating a campaign image and how they will be presented. And that has an unfortunate amount to do with who does and does not become president of the United States of America.
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