Game Changers

You know people talk about game changing technology a lot…. So I find it funny when the real thing comes along to relatively little fan fare. Nobody really paid attention when the I-pod launched. Sure the apple heads were thrilled but at that time mp3 was not a household term and the idea of your computer being the central element to your music collection was pretty well reserved to those of a pretty geeky bent. Today's game changers have had some press sure. But I just am not sure folks really realize the full potential impact of two products that just started to ship.

The first is the new Toshiba Batteries. First story I saw about it was a couple of years ago when it was fresh out of the labs. The past week saw the announcement that they were starting to ship. The quick and dirty? 5000 recharge cycle lithium ion batteries able to be effectively re-charged in 5 minutes. That is 13 years and change at a full charge everyday from a battery technology proven to give 100-200 mile range in electric vehicles. And that is just to the battery maintaining 90% original charge. In other words these babies can last the life of a car through multiple owners and it can be recharged fast enough to be used on extended trips. The only two things missing now are stations with a high capacity recharge capability and some cars that use the technology. 9 gets you one the new flush of plug in hybrid vehicles and even a couple of electric only cars are on the fast track to incorporating these batteries. Charging stations should be relatively easy to install. These batteries can charge and discharge at a high rate. That means a station could house a bank of them that charge off a standard (commercial) outlet and then provide the high capacity needed to fast charge smaller car packs. Stations can charge up overnight during low utility rate periods and as needed during the day… perhaps even off of solar panels though you would need a lot to really make much of a dent in the kind of power storage you are talking about to charge up even a single car with these, much less a line of them. The really nice thing about this? Small installations could be fairly inexpensive to roll out and then they could be very easily expanded as more cars came on line. This really is about as easy an infrastructure change as we could hope for. The hardest transition would be if the cars really take off and the basic power delivery capacity has to be upgraded to deliver more juice to replace gas at the pumps. Make no mistake folks. This battery marks the entrance of practical all electric vehicles. The only real question remaining is will the cost of them make those practical cars luxury items, or an everyman choice? Of course this is not to mention the nice bonus of laptops and cell phones that can be quickly charged from a standard outlet. Are these perfect? No, odds are they will be pricey to start with and the capacity/ energy density is still lower than it ultimately needs to be. But these are a very big deal.

The second game changer to launch is the new nanosolar product. 1$ a watt. Not fiction, not some day. But shipping now and production is bought up for a year and counting. Current Solar panel installation ROI tends to be about 20 years. This cuts that by 75%. Combine it with the above technology with a battery that could have an effective life of better than 10 years and you might manage to improve the ROI time even further. Existing installations tend to use SLA batteries and need to be replaced every 5-8 years…. Granted the added cost of the lithium might more than offset that but if those make it into massive production to support electric vehicles then you will have a high likely hood of mass produced high capacity packs designed to be safe in car wrecks. Think of it this way. You are a housing contractor. If you look at current solar options for grid tie sell back systems your selling point to the owner is that the added cost starts showing ROI after 20 years. With these you get to pitch 5 years… or in other words less time than some car financing options. Again this is truly game changing technology. While I doubt it will usher in an era of universal solar installations, this will do a great deal to shift the decision to 'go solar' into the territory of financially intelligent (if somewhat long sighted) rather than the current 'eco morality feel good' choice it primarily is. IE companies currently install solar for the PR value much more than any potential financial benefit, private installations are often choices of conscious or even made for independence in spite of the added cost. Combine it with tax incentive programs for alternative energy sources and this panel is poised to get solar installations changed from the exception to the expected in new build properties.

Like it or not I think the true 'green' revolution is here. This is the start of the nitty gritty details on how it actually happens. Two imperfect but practical new products which are shipping. Perhaps I am jumping the gun here, but I doubt it. For once the numbers are starting to tilt in the favor of some alternative energy products. Finally, real products instead of marketing pipe dreams and hype. Give these another two years and I doubt anyone will not know about them.