A grab all rant fest, tech review, book review and whatever strikes my fancy to talk about.
Monday, November 10, 2008
Tech Review: 2008 Macbook Pro
Like em, love em or hate em. Apple does not take half measures when it comes to the Macbook line and that goes double for the recent revamp of Macbook and Macbook Pro's. Glo(a)ssy screen, all button glass trackpad, unibody aluminum, dual graphics cards, sparse but essential port list and new display port. Most new laptops do good to break ground in a single area. Most new laptops are doing one ups on tech specs. Apple routinely ignores what 'most' are doing and instead looks to what can be better. At least that is what can be better according to Jobs. Whether or not you are a fan of his particular flavor of Koolaid or not I think it is hard to not find some things to like in these new designs. Granted it is also hard not to find things to not like.
The good:
Solid. This is the third laptop I have personally purchased. I have handled countless others either through browsing or helping folks with their computer problems. This is the first laptop I have ever held that actually matches my expectations in craftsmanship when considering the price of the device. Metal, Glass, no creaks, no mushy keys/keyboard. A Power connection mindful of how expensive it is to have a laptop pulled from a table. With perhaps the sole exception of the display hinges there is no single thing that screams "will die with constant use" as all other laptops I have experience with. My Dell D820 was/is solid even after 2 yeas of use.... and you can read my impressions of that machine. They were and are still very positive. The Macbook Pro is just in a different world.
Pretty Picture. The display cuts both ways. But glare aside the picture is just gorgeous. LED backlighting is all it is cracked up to be and then some. Most times a laptop display is one of the worst compromises when it comes to choosing to use a laptop over a desktop. This is by far the best looking display I have ever had the pleasure to use for any extended period of time. Full stop, end of story. There are certainly some issues but we will deal with them in a bit.
Sound. There is a special circle in hell reserved for naughty audiophiles where they will be subjected to their favorite music played through laptop speakers. If you really love music then the poor tinny excuse for sound reproduction that comes from laptops the world over is somewhat akin to nails on a chalk board. However... while the speakers on this bad boy are not a threat to Bose I think it is safe to say they are one of the first actual 'speakers' to be had on a laptop. Certainly they are the first of which I am aware of on a 15.4 machine. I would presume that there are some 17" plus desktop behemoths that may have had decent sound but I do not really consider them 'laptops'. I had a positive take on my Dell D820 speakers but let me put it in perspective. My positive take on the Dell was essentially rooted in the fact they were loud enough to be useful... ie skype calls, system sounds etc... and were not so excessively tinny at volume as to make you want to rip your ear drums out. They still were not capable of more than the most desperate use for listening to something like music or even a movie. I began using my speakers on this laptop while attempting to tame my Itunes collection and found to my surprise that the sound quality was almost *gasp* good.... circa mid 80's fm with lack of decent base.
Multitouch whole button trackpad. Its different of that there is no doubt. However after two weeks of use all I can say is that trying to go back to my old trackpad on my work Dell (D830) is beyond painful. While I have my thoughts regarding 'right click' I have to say that so long as the system is designed around the concept of a single click mouse it just is not much of an issue. Besides the secondary click in a specific corner works 'good enough'. I used to be of the opinion that multi touch was a gimic not long for this world. All I can say is that it is one of those things you have to live with for a little while to understand it. While not a replacement for a good stand alone mouse this qualifies as a non-hinderance device. To put this into perspective. On my previous two machines if I were to work for any length of time doing anything besides typing notes at a meeting I would automatically connect my external mouse. After two + weeks I have yet to attach an external mouse to this machine. If I start doing some serious coding, or sketch-up work it will get broken out... but probably not otherwise.
Dual Graphics Solution. The Macbook Pro brings an integrated and stand alone Nvidia graphics solution to the table. Integrated for battery life and day to day grind stuff. Dedicated card for some fun and or added grunt when needed during graphics intensive work. Now if only they had made the stand alone upgradeable. Ironically the more interesting of the two is the integrated option as this is the first system with the new Nvidia integrated set. This marks the first real competitor to the Intel integrated solution which became almost ubiquitous after its introduction with Centrino. For those interested in how good it is I can tell you it runs X-plane on default settings. The standalone 256mb card will run it on very high detail settings and default densities... but runs best on high detail with longer fields of view. It is no dual SLI rig but for a 15.4 notebook it is more than respectable.
Port placement. No ports, jacks etc... on the front of the box (I'm looking at you macbook pro 17inch). They are all neatly arranged on the left side. Slot load DVD/Burner on the right and nothing on the back. (display would obstruct the way it is designed). Clean as a whistle in comparison to most Laptops.
The So So:
Integrated Ichat camera/microphone. A surprisingly rare combination still in laptops but one which is definitely growing and already standard fare on all mac laptops. If you don't want to use a webcam fine... but if you ever want to with a laptop then having to drag one around with you is... well a drag. Camera's are so tiny and cheap these days the only reason one should not be on there is if it is a security issue. The microphone is perhaps even more important. This one does its job... nothing special but most importantly nothing bad. It works.
Port count. The mag power connection aside (which is old hat for mac anyway) the ports on the Macbook Pro are sparse. 2 usb, 1 firewire, 1 32mm express card slot, power, mic, headphone/digital out, Gig-E and the new mini display port. All on one side. Very nice touch of a flap on the express card port rather than some annoying blank libel to be lost the first time you use a card. The ports are key and they are definitely 'with it'. No legacy connectors, no 'Dock' connector, no standard VGA/DVI/S or HDMI connection. For the most part I think they nailed it as far as an 'essential' list. I honestly have a hard time deciding if this is a problem or not on the Mac. The biggest crime is probably the mini display port. Granted Mac is fighting a chicken and the egg problem with this port and they have a history of breaking the ground on such things. But really... this port is likely to be a pain in the @$$ to deal with for a road warrior. Baring a PC adoption of this port it will NEVER become a standard and with HDMI or even USB I am just not sure I see this one happening.
Keyboard. Jobs anti-button fetish does occasionally hit snags. First let me make it clear the quality of the keys is not an issue. They are SCHWEET!!!! My complaint is the lack of them. Granted my complaint is longstanding with Apple on this one and I find it is still there after all this time. Home - End - Pg Up - Pg Down and a separated Delete/Backspace option are not negotiable in my opinion. Bravo on giving the function keys jobs to do. This one is definitely a bubble issue with me. The size/spacing etc.. of the keyboard is insanely good and no doubt that in large part drives the lack of additional space for extra function keys as you find on typical laptops. Again love hate.... hate love. Doing typical typing it is not an issue. Bouncing around code and doing other wise odd text selection gymnastics leaves you doing the apple keystroke combination finger yoga.
Integral slot load optical drive. Got to help the construction of the device. But I just cannot bring myself to like a drive that cannot be easily replaced. Optical drives will at some point go the way of the floppy but it is not yet and it is REALLY annoying if one dies on your laptop if you need one on a daily basis. Additionally I really like the component setup on many machines that allow you to swap in a secondary battery when needed if you did not need the drive. I don't place this in the 'bad' category primarily because Mac has been doing these slot loaders for a while now and I am not aware of any real failure issues above and beyond a typical tray device.
Pixel count. The display is gorgeous. But it is also somewhat lacking in real estate. Don't get me wrong, 1440X900 is extremely useable. However, you run out of pixels very quickly if you are used to larger desktop setups. Document reviewing and large complicated work environments like IDE's are less than ideal experiences. On the other hand most GUI design just has not caught up to high resolution but small displays. My last system was a 15.4 inch design with 1920 x 1050 resolution. Awesome in some uses, but OS menus and dialogs were often a problem. On that system the problem was being able to read smaller elements. In this case the biggest problem is vertical space. 1200x1024 is pretty much the assumed minimum these days when it comes to application design. Toss in the OS X dock at the bottom and that 900 runs awful short of your typical display in a lot of instances. This is one area Apple has been lagging behind on. I can only guess, but I would imagine it has something to do with tradeoffs on other pieces of the puzzle... like glass, LED and clarity. There are also considerations for display element size (afore mentioned density issues). Hopefully sooner rather than later someone will be able to separate font size and pixel size. That way you can design things like OS dialog/menu's etc... for a specific size rather than specific amount of display elements. IE smaller dot pitch screens display smaller font point for point.
The Bad:
Glass Gloss Glare Display is certainly hit or miss. The backlight can overpower most any indoor lighting problems but forget dealing with sunshine. It is a mirror under an uncomfortably large range of lighting situations and with the black bezel it will always have at least some reflection. As lovely as this screen is under the right circumstances it is really a problem under the wrong ones. Trade offs on glossy screens are nothing new... but they are new to the 15.4 macbook pro. In the past Apple has offered a choice. A Crucial choice since they are the ONLY providers of the hardware. If a Matte option is not produced and they migrate the 17" Pro to glossy this is going to be a real area of contention between apple and its longstanding core of graphics professionals. For me the Pro's outweigh the cons on the glare but I can see where it would not for some folks. Do go check this out at the store or through a friend if possible before purchasing (also applies for the new macbook as well). And be sure you move it around to catch lights at the less than optimum angle.
Trackpad Woes. Yes I love the trackpad and yes it is in the good section. However some of the magic is having problems. Since it is so large that your palms are generally in contact while typing there is some smarts in play trying figure out when you are trying to use it. It works for the most part but it is fairly slow to switch to accepting inputs at times. Also While I personally have not been having the problem there is a pretty big uproar on the Apple forums with folks reporting some click problems on the new laptops. IE clicks do not register. There is word that Apple will be releasing a software update to address the problem. I am hopping it is tied in with the issue I am having and both will be resolved.
Lack of an included VGA/DVI/S adaptor for the mini display port. Even Apple does not yet have a screen out that directly utilizes the new port on these machines. The first (the new drool inducing Cinema display) should be shipping later this month if it is not already... but it is insanely priced for a monitor at 800 bucks vrs 3-400 for a decent non-mac alternative. To not include the dongle and then have the nerve to sell them for 30 freaking dollars is uncool in the extreme and is pretty much the only sour note in my experience thus far with my transition to Apple.
Lack of the native ability to close the screen without sending the device to sleep. I am fine with a default behavior to do this. But there should be an option to change it as needed. One truly annoying example of why this is needed is airtunes. I use my laptop to drive nice speakers. While I am not actively utilizing the laptop I like to keep it closed so that the display does not get dusty and is better protected against accidents. I also like to remain logged into messenger and to have up to date E-mail without having to leave the display open. For me this is a really annoying issue. For others it might not be a big deal. There is an application available for free that enables this behavior however I have read of a few instances in which people had problems with the device over heating. It seems the screen stays on as a result of this program. What truly annoys me is obviously this mode of operation is allowed by the OS as the system does operate with the lid closed when an external monitor and input devices are attached. Granted in the grand scheme of things this problem is a paper cut... highly annoying but ultimately not a huge deal.
Battery life. It sucks. Dedicated graphics battery life is 2-3ish. Integrated is better so long as you are not doing video/flash etc... Previous generation was a solid 4-5 hour machine. What really bites is the reduced the battery size. The new CPU and Graphics were supposed to make this a zero sum change in battery life. In reality not so much. This is not a Morning to lunch machine. You need to close the lid as often as possible if you need to actually stretch much beyond 2 hours of use with any kind of safety margin. While not a major issue for me I have go to think it verges on a deal breaker for some eyeing it for a college machine where lectures are long, and accessible power outlets scarce. I have little doubt the drop in battery size was directly tied to the weight. The unibody gained weight over the previous iteration even with the battery diet. When will manufacturers learn that useable battery life is one of the few acceptable weight penalties most real mobile users are willing to pay. If I were after a truly svelte portable machine this is not where I would be looking. The macbook and or air both are more attractive from a portable standpoint. They should have left the battery capacity alone. On the brighter side there is a chance for a software update that may improve the battery issue as evidently there are issues with the new Nvidia chips. However the improvement there is likely going to be related to the sleep drain. Currently it is more than a percent an hour which is quite annoying compared to most other laptops that often loose only 2-3% a DAY in sleep mode including the previous Macbook Pro.
Conclusion:
This is a real slick machine and you will be hard pressed to find a sexier design... especially in this class of machine (mobile muscle). But like most bombshells it comes with baggage. Only you can decide if you are willing to put up with the 'drama' in order to have this baby on your arm. All in all this is a damn nice machine. But its quirks are not to be 'glossed over' lightly. Hands on experience is highly recommended prior to plunking down hard earned money for what will likely be a long term companion in your life. One thing that cannot be denied is that Apple set a new bar in construction with the new unibody style. One can only hope it is a sign of things to come for Laptop design in general. If initial net reviews are any indication the new display is polarizing... from the glare, to the LED, to the Imac style black bezel it engenders strong opinions from both extremes... sometimes from the same person. Lack of Blue Ray/HDMI is a major bummer for many but of limited concern from my view point. HDMI has limitations and Apple may just be right when it says that Blu Ray is likely to be short lived in the face of HD online content. Lack of higher resolution options is largely off set by the reality of utilizing external displays when such is needed... besides if you really need it in a laptop it is available in the 17 inch machine which is almost as portable as most other manufacturers 15.4 designs.
President Elect Obama: Thoughts, Concerns and What Comes Next
So much is being said about the Obama campaign effort and the folks that ran it I cannot resist a few comments. One... the Obama campaign was not 'new'. It was the epitome of a campaign. At least that dewy eyed idealistic view to which most subscribe at some point or other in the course of learning about how our democracy works. I wrote a post about "The Audacity of Hope" which I somewhat snidely referred to alternatively as "Mr. Obama goes to Washington". Well I stand corrected. Occams Razor says the simplest explanation is probably the correct one. To explain the success of the Obama campaign one must subscribe to one of two theories. One, they were that savvy and that good at reading the tea leaves and called all the right shots.... or that there was something fundamentally different about them from typical campaigns. Namely that they were not trying to 'create an image'. They were campaigning for a candidate who knew where he stood and who was not searching for what to say to make people more likely to vote for him... but was instead searching for better ways to say what it was he believed in so that people could decide to vote for him. And they did that.... they didn't do it where they were 'supposed to' according to the 'book'. They did it EVERYWHERE. If the Obama camp actually did pull off creating 'the image' of Obama... well frankly they should go work for Madame Cleo and be banned from Vegas. I have had my doubts about Obama... and many remain. But of one thing I am fairly certain at this point. He is a new breed. Whether or not that is a good or bad thing remains to be seen. Whether or not he even would have won a more typical election will be a discussion for years to come. Bush, Iraq and a number of other factors had the deck stacked pretty hard against the Republicans.
The Obama campaign is Amazon when it first came on the scene. Before Amazon nobody had really figured out how to make 'online' business work. After it the game is different. Nobody will win a national election from this point forward without harnessing the internet at least as effectively as Obama. This was what gave them the ability to pull in small money on a scale simply not believed possible before just as Amazon was able to deliver 'wholesale' to the public in a way previously thought impossible. It is what allowed them to reach out and touch so many people.
So what about the massive turnout? Well it didn't really happen. More ballots were cast than in any other election... but as a percentage of registered voters the turn out was effectively the same as for 2004. The big story of the Obama campaign in history books is most likely to be the money... not who it put in the voting booth. The story regarding turnout and the difference in the campaign is the defeat of Hillary in the Primaries... not as much the presidential win vrs McCain.
Obama's first moves:
Obama continues to show a mix of old school vrs new school. Campaign team ? New. VP ? Old. Chief of Staff? Old. His first major staff appointment is a 7 year vet of the white house in the same roll circa Slick Willie. Has a nasty history of partisan dealing. A lot of Obama's image is riding on how he allows his chief of staff to operate. I do not immediately assume that his past history in the Clinton White House is an indication of how he will operate in an Obama White House. He will take his lead from Obama just as he did from Clinton in the past.
As for fears of how Obama would treat with shall we say 'questionable' leaders of the world? I think Obama should be putting some fears to rest based on his initial response to Iran. Granted the true test is yet to come.
The decision to create a national CTO (not to mention the campaign in general) gives me hope that this administration will a hell of a lot more technically savvy and might just push at least some aspects of US Bureaucracy into the 21st century.
Sunday, October 26, 2008
Personal Tech Review: Making the Mac Jump
Why Mac?:
To some extent my decision to go with Mac was a process of elimination. I have used Windows and several flavors of Linux over the past few years and have just found them lacking. All things being equal my first choice would have been to get a new XP laptop however, since Microsoft has decreed that XP will die so I would have to pay extra to get an older OS these days. Vista bites the wax tadpole and I have zero interest in paying one single penny of my money for it much less extra to get the OS I want in the first place.
All that aside Apple has had one thing I have been drooling over for the last few years. The Macbook pro design. I have been waiting patiently for the PC laptop equivalent for going on 5 years... and the closest yet has been the freakin HP netbook. Seems simple enough, make a high quality, durable case in as slim a package as possible. And yet Apple remains alone in the field of a high end aluminum laptop design. Dell is working on their magnesium composite designs but they just can't seem to get them as slim. Lenovo has gotten into 'air' territory with their exorbitantly priced X300 but still missed the boat on style. Form does not trump function. However when it comes to Laptops, form is function when they are your daily companion. A Nice Keyboard is a necessary element. A good screen is a MUST have. A Durable case a key element. Take two equally functional laptops... and the one with better form wins. The new Macbook and Macbook Pro bring all of this in spades. Clean, elegant and incredibly solid design. Superb LCD evenly backlit screen. New gigantic multi-touch capacitive glass trackpads that is also a multi-function button. Credible speakers (at least on the Pro). Glassed screen and of course aluminum case. In short the design is just out of this world.
Apple has long had a design edge but in the time that Jobs has been back he has engineered two other HUGE changes in Apple computers which is leading to their growth. OS X, and the move to Intel chips. The Intel Chips and boot camp have changed a major issue with regards to making a jump.... now you can jump back to windows even after taking the plunge if you absolutely have to. OS X provides a solid OS which makes a strong argument for not needing to jump back. It is stable. The programs are intuitive and consistent in a way Microsoft can only dream about.
The Apple Premium:
Much has been made of the premium nature of Apple with regards to equipment cost. Apple does not go after the bottom of the market. But if you compare them with equivalent PC equipment (ie of similar quality, spec etc...) you will find they are certainly not the most expensive. A great example is the cost comparison between the Mac Air and it's only real competitor in the Lenovo X300 and X301. Suffice it to say that Macbook's and Macbook Pro's are very competitively prices for the specs they bring to the table.
The Transition:
Once upon a time the switch from PC to Mac was one of no return. Incompatible file formats, completely different software etc... meant you faced a completely new world and often couldn't even talk to the old one. Today? AIM, GMAIL, Yahoo Mail, POP Mail, Exchange accounts make for a seamless transfer. If you know all your account information then you can be up and running on typical activities in no time. Itunes is by and large the most common media management option and it is cross platform these days. If you get by with windows media player then you probably have an issue... at least if you have a large wmv collection as there is no solution for that out of the box with Mac.... just as there are no out of the box solutions for quicktime on PC.
However think of it this way... if your most common interactions with a computer involves a url, mp3 or mpg... PC, Mac or LINUX makes relatively little difference these days. And Mac is probably easier to deal with than PC. In a week of playing with OS X and its default applications I am in awe. Apple has long been about ease of use but it has been elevated to high art since the old days. What quirks there are largely are consistent meaning you only have to learn them once and then they apply pretty much every where else. OS X has a consistency of design that Microsoft users can only dream of.
The remaining major concern of such swaps has to remain Microsoft Office. Currently Office users have relatively little issue since a current version of Office for Mac is available ( this has been an on and off again situation with Mac software ). So while it is not free you can make a relatively easy transition either by buying the apple native suite, or by loading up your existing office disc in an XP install on boot camp or fusion. For those just worried about being able to to office type tasks you should remember that open office is free and quite capable... and can even read/edit all but the newest office formats. There is also the iWork suite available very reasonably from apple (70 bucks).
Basic file transfers which used to be such a bane of OS swaps is now almost childishly simple with usb thumb drives, or even external hard drives.
Conclusion:
I think the best way to sum up our choice is that the question is no longer " Why Mac?". The questions is now "Why NOT Mac?".
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Update: Nokia N810
So I guess the single biggest question I had prior to owning this thing was how much I would actually use it. The answer has been mixed. At first I toyed with it all the time. I read a few books with FBReader and think it does well enough that I have considered using it as a E-book reader. Battery life is the limiter there. Once the newness wore off itgot relegated to my backpack for 2-3 months and rarely came out. The UI was painfully slow way to often. Anyway, one of the largest reasons I got it was for long trips. I finally went on one, a road trip from Alabama to Boston and back covering just over a week. And it came ito it's own. E-mail and web access along with periodic GPS information on the road made this a very valuable trip companion. Its easy to use sizeover my laptop largely negated any problems with the sometimes slow UI that had been responsible for its long naps in my rucksack. Anyway after I got back I became determined to tinker with it again and see if I could not begin using it more consistently. But after I got back I once again was generally to annoyed with the user interface to break it out rather than wait for time on a laptop etc... A huge factor in all this was the lack of stability in the RSS reader and the E-mail application. These represented the bulk of what i wanted to access with the device and they were some of the buggiest pieces of software I had ever used. I initially thought my ability to take notes with my bluetooth keyboard would keep it employed but even that prooved problematic. The keyboard connection had serious problems with duplicating keystrokes or failing to register all together. I tried using it for a couple of weeks but eventually found myself reaching more and more for my legal pad when I knew I had to take serious notes on something.
Enter Diablo. The Diablo update is annoying for folks on earlier versions of 2008 because it requires a full re-flash of the device. This means an awful lot of tweaks and such are lost and backing up this device can be frustrating pain. However I finally decided that since I just was not using it all that often I didn't have anything to lose so I just flashed it and dealt with whatever I lost along the way. Diablo, or the lack of crap loaded thanks to the re-flash or some combination led to a much more responsive device. Apps loaded faster, web updated quicker and youtube capability was back on the web browser (had to use a standalone application shortly after getting the device originally due to a flash update issue). Most importantly the RSS reader and E-mail applications gained some much needed stability. Once I got my feeds all in order and IMAP access to G-mail up and running it quickly became my default device around the house. So I have been using it now for the better part of 2 months on a daily basis and my laptop at home only gets used when I really need a keyboard or larger screen. It is also experience a revival at work as the connection with my igo keyboard is now much more consistent and I am able to use it as my primary note taking device.
Overall:
I have had my ups and downs with this device, and for a little while I thought I was going to have to reverse many of my previous thoughts on this device. The Diablo update saved it in my eyes and now it is largely upholding my early impressions. Still once I get down to it I think this is superb hardware hampered by half assed software. I somewhat over estimated the ability of the maemo community to plug some gaps. I really thought Nokia or the community would gin up some sort of serious PIM application and office document capacity. I came to the understanding that Maemo was also severely flawed which led to the device spending 3-4 months of the 10 I have owned it largely unused. The Diablo update has not removed all the problems but it has made the device useable in several key areas for me. It is good enough now that the device has become genuinely useful.
Currently its biggest problem in my eyes is that it just does not integrate well with my other toys. By contrast my HTC TynTyn is an extension of my work and personal computing in ways I can only dream about the N-810 being... largely thanks to tightly integrated Office and Outlook clients. The one boon of suffering through Microsoft's mobile OS.
I make no retraction on my words regarding the GPS. It is horrible and the new update and AGPS beta do not seem to really improove anything.
Song/picture/movie handling (PMP duties) are not good compared to I-pod but capable. The biggest problem being that the fancy management programs like Canola over taxes the hardware and video codec support is spotty (and that is putting it nicely). A lot of the warts could be overlooked if it just plain responded faster... but pictures are not fast to load, and video's are just a joke. Music management is good for small collections but large collections get unwieldy in a hurry.
For the future:
I am seriously looking at the 3g I-Phone in part because this device HAS become so useful. The more time I have spent with the apple golden child the more I am swayed by its one crowning glory. Immediate touch screen response. The on screen keyboard while annoying is 'good enough'. The two things holding me back are the keyboard and the lack of tethering. But the bulk of my tethering these days is to the tablet... not my laptop. So I likely would not feel the need for tethering. The more I have used it the more impressed I have become with I-phones ability to get the most out of its screen. The more I experience the responsiveness the more annoyed I get with the relative un-responsiveness of my HTC Tyn Tyn and the tablet... not to mention the two devices vrs one I could have in the I-phone.
When I made my initial decision to buy the Nokia the apple toys were not in the running for three reasons. I-Phone lack of 3g, Touch lack of bluetooth tethering and both lacking Exchange support. The I-Phone now has 3g and Exchange sync. While it is still lacking on the bluetooth front much of that can be gotten via jail breaking.
If I were buying new tech right now the 3g I-Phone is what I would get especially if they go to a 32gb version. The wimax tablet is a non-starter for me and the new hardware has yet to show its face... and in the end I am not sure I will sink money into a device like this again without Exchange/Office document capability. Also in the running is the HTC Touch Pro and Touch HD. Both have screens rivaling the Tablet with cellular capability AND full exchange integration. However I am keeping a close eye on Android. They have already loaded early versions on the tablet and I imagine that work will continue especially now that devices with it are finally starting to hit shelves. If Google nails exchange capability (something they are committed to doing they say) then the tablet will re-enter my thoughts. Maemo is tragically flawed at this time and barring a more dedicated support it will drag this nice piece of hardware down with it.
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Posted By Tmortn to TANSTAAFL at 9/30/2008 01:21:00 PM
Presidential Update: Nomination, VP's and the Financial Crisis
Of course we now have the VP nominations to talk about. I think enough dust has settled from the Palin decision to take a better look at it. But first let us talk about Biden. The choice is one I have a hard time understanding from Obama. He road 'change' and 'new' and 'not typical washington' all the way to the Democratic nomination. He flaunted his lack of credentials to a large extent by showing how inept those who had them were already proving to be. Then he picks a VP candidate who pretty much embodies all of those characteristics. Same old washington? Check. Not new? Check. Not someone credible as representing non-partisan change politics? Check. Biden is about as stereotypical politician as you can get this side of an SNL skit. The only reason I could see going that route would be to add some 'gravitas' to the ticket and Biden just does not add that. He is most famous for telling a wheelchair bound person to stand up, and for plagiarizing speeches. On the other hand he is all and all unremarkable and safe in terms of VP picks. He might help swing his home state, he is aggressive and can walk a more dangerous line in terms of his interactions with the opposition. In otherwords picking him was a page out of Politics 101. A very disconcerting move in my mind for a candidate predicated on changing politics.
On the flip side we have McCain breaking new ground, anointing a wet behind the ears freshly minted Governor of Alaska. 2 years state governor experience and prior to that mayor of a flyspeck bush town in the hinterlands of Seward's icebox. To say the least she was not on the radar, and she is NOT politics as usual when it comes to VP picks. In short she is the kind of pick I much more expected from Obama. She enhances aspects of McCain in the way Biden dims down aspects of Obama... the choices here could not be more diametrically opposed. Any arguments about her ability to perform her job or even to step into presidential shoes if McCain dies are largely moot because it would be hard to argue she has less experience than Obama. To debate the differences will only hurt Obama because democrats cannot not shine a light on Palin in that regard that will not also land on Obama. I for one think Palin would be a better choice than Biden in terms of being president. On the other hand I have compared the Republican effort in this election as doomed to repeat Mondales fate when facing Regan... I didn't think they would go so far as to pick a stand in for Geraldine Feraro to boot :-) Ok that is it for reffering to the second major party nomination of a woman for VP and the first republican nod. In my mind it just is not an issue.
So the stage is set. McCain has rolled the dice and for the most part I think he succeeded in showing folks he is still a Maverick, not just a tired cliche. Obama has moved to the center a bit to solidify his shaky party. The question now is did Obama dial it back to much or did McCain reach to far? For the most part it does not matter. Forget the stage that has been set by the past year of posturing by the candidates. The scene has been changed and the stage is fresh. Financial problems are the new Iraq. It is not going to be fixed quickly. In all likely hood it is going to get worse before it gets better. Right now I honestly believe that a presidential win for either candidate is going to be a poison pill "Herbert Hoover" style. For those not up on presidential history, Hoover was the president in office when October 29th 1929 happend and it rapidly torpedoed his administration through no real fault of his own. Of course this situation is slightly different as this election is rapidly going to become focused on this particular problem. So they will have an advantage Hoover did not have. But I do not think that is going to be sufficient to shelter them from the fallout of the first serious economic meltdown of the new millennium. In one sense it could be far worse as they will spend the next couple of months promising they can avert and/or fix the problem and then be clearly 'to blame' when their solutions fail to work. It isn't that their plans have no chance. I just don't see them being able to back out years/decades of problem rapidly enough to matter come the next election cycle. The current attention span of public discourse just is not sufficient which is a shame. To make matters worse the public patience has already been severely tried by the debacle that has become Iraq and the war on terror.
Financial Crisis:
This crisis is nothing new. We saw a massive downturn in the late 90's when the tech bubble burst. We saw the savings and loan scandal in the late 80's and now we have the sub prime crisis. They ALL have a very common thread. Irresponsible high risk economic decision making on a MASSIVE scale. What makes this one worse than the previous two is the scale and distribution of the risk. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac alone comprised 12 trillion dollars of assets, much of which has been poisoned by the sub prime meltdown. The securities floated from many other institutions based on the same mess have circulated the globe. A very large part of me wants to say just let them lie in the graves they dug, consequences be damned. The problem with that is this has the potential to destroy multiple national economies as we now know them. How so? Economies are largely based on trust. The higher flying international trade has gotten the more based on trust it has become. Investment is all about trust. I am going to give you X amount of Money in hopes I will get Y amount back. When faith in that process dies it kills investment. As for what actually drives that trust? Good luck finding out or explaining it. Reading tea leaves, monitoring skirt lengths or even super bowl victories have as good a track record of predicting it as 'expert opinion'. What really is not up for debate is that when trust in the process fails it is devastating. Basic economic interaction today is based on trust. Trust that a piece of paper is worth goods and services. Stop and think about that for a second. We accept money in exchange for the lion's share of our efforts through the day. We do this because it is something we trust to be more productive than going out and trying to meet our needs in other ways... like hunting. Trust in the investment processes is fundamental to the monetary system. Without it banks are a non-starter. They can only afford to hold your money if their is profit in it for them, and without investment there is no way for banks to make money short of taking yours. That in turn reduces the appeal of banks in general which starts a vicious cycle. If you want a crash course in some of the potential side effects study post WW 1 German economics, or for a more recent example check out Zimbabwe.
Anyway, when you hit times like this it takes wide reaching leadership from the top to chart a course out of it. In short, problems like this are why government exists. The problem is we have been so prosperous for so long that we have allowed our government to invent new roles and responsibilities for itself and now we are stretched to far to react well to problems like this one. In short, the US government is just as over leveraged as the whole sub prime mortgage industry. Thus we are in a catch 22. A card government has to play is the bottomless bucket of cash card... IE we spend it first and ask where the hell it came from later. It is something of a slight of hand trick and the idea is that the results of spending the money eventually serves to justify from whence it came. Sort of arguing that the chicken comes before the egg, or that the ends justify the means. The problem with that method is it can backfire and it might become obvious to everyone that the egg does indeed come before the chicken and that the means are as important as the end result. Which is right? There is no way to tell. To the victors go the spoils, or in other word what actually happens will in fact determine what was right. The problem is you can only pull so much money out of a hat before people begin to question money period... and the US government has been pulling money from nowhere for quite a while now. You may not think of it as such but I am sure you are familiar with the term 'Deficit spending' as it has been a standard sound bite for most of the war on Terror. When the common person engages in deficit spending we pull out a credit card. It is the same for the government in that they spend money they do not have. The difference is the US government doing it is like you doing it when you own the credit card company. If you really consider that for a while I think you will begin to see the problems. A little is fine, a lot bankrupts the company.
Let me try to place the proposed financial system bailout in perspective. The number being thrown about for it is 700 billion dollars. 1000 billion is a trillion. Government revenue for 2007 was estimated at about 2.4 trillion... or 2,400 billion. Translation. The proposed bailout represents about 30% of the US governments income from 2007. For every $1 dollar in taxes you spent that means $0.30 would go to the bailout. The problem is before the bailout the government already had a budget spending something like $1.14 dollars for every dollar they received. In other words the US government was already spending more money they they collected, and now they are talking about spending ~30% more. Another way to look at this is the government did not even collect more than 700billion total until 1985. The only time we have seen deficit spending in that range was at the hight of the cold war and Reganomics... and even Regan only got it up to 25% ('82). The current 2008 budget is estimating 13.9% deficit spending. This would ADD another 30% to toss us out there at 43.9%. Imagine if you will... that you went out and overan your household budget by 43%. That is you had to go on credit for almost half of what you earn in a year. Assuming 10% of your budget was discrectionary (able to spend on anything) it would take you 4+ years of spending it on nothing else to catch back up. Or you have to impact other budget items... like saving for retirement etc... You could make minimum payments to your card and ease the pain in return for paying back craploads more money over a much longer term. Now imagine if you did this every year. Sooner or later you get so far behind it just does not work and you end up spending all available money just to deal with interest. The US government is rapidly working itself into a similar situation.
Something has GOT to give and there are only 3 chunks of government spending large enough to even think about carving this kind of money out of in any kind of reasonable time frame. They are DOD, Social Security, and Medicare. All of them sit around 20%, or in other words those three things account for 60% of the US budget year in and year out. Social Security is the piggy bank that gets raided when we 'deficit spend' and it is overdrawn to say the least so we would have to pull from somewhere else. The only other choice is to produce more money. In the past that effectively meant sacking another country for their wealth. Today with paper currency a choice is also to just print more of it. Taking money from any of the three major budget areas has severe consequences. Generating money from thin air has even more severe consequences... and conquest is really no longer a viable option. Now, sit down and try to figure out how you juggle the problems and I think you will see why I think Obama and McCain are completely and utterly screwed. Change... it is an over tired cliche, but change is coming no matter who wins and not just because it is in their campaign slogans. Change is coming courtesy of the financial crisis, ready or not here it comes.
Friday, May 23, 2008
Gas prices solutions: 55mph speed limit vrs Telecomuting
NO
It is not safer, and unless people actually adhere to the limit it will not do anything to improve gas mileage. It would improve ticket revenue however.
If you question my statement about safety just go look it up and find whatever sources you deem credible. There were more wrecks and more fatal wrecks by any measure made during the double nickel era and was followed by a sharp decline after it was repealed. Simple physics says it should be safer... less speed less damage etc. That is true enough but the problem is that the vast majority of people paid zero heed to the signs. Average highway speeds did not decline at the onset of 55mph limits... in fact average highway speed has generally increased over time with improved car design. Today's typical sedan is a far cry from a 70's piece of heavy iron with leaf springs. However because a fair percentage of drivers will ALWAYS adhere rigidly to the posted speed limits this meant there was often a greater relative speed difference between cars on the highway. Relative speed difference is what makes wrecks dangerous. It does not matter if we are talking about a car and a light post or two cars. The relative speed difference is the determining factor in how bad it will be. You also have to remember that the equation for deriving kinetic energy is exponential. That means the energy that has to be dissipated by a car moving at 80mph is not 4 times that of a car moving at 20mph... it is more like 16x the energy.
The equation is E = .5 (m * v^2) or Energy equals half of mass times velocity squared.
Use kg for weight and meters per second for velocity and you will arrive at joules. Map some speeds and you will see what happens. If everyone stayed within +- 5mph of 55 it would indeed be safer... but when speeds are split 55 - 85 that 30mph difference is worse than say a wreck between 25 and 55. Highway wrecks involving 55mph difference.. ie running into a stationary object.. are pretty much the same as hitting it at 85... you are just more sure of fatality to a few more decimal places. Crash tests generally take place around 35-45mph and very few cars can maintain their integrity at that speed much less higher velocity impacts.
So barring a completely different and vastly more effective enforcement mechanism there is no chance lowering the speed limit will increase safety or lower overall gas usage. Both simply because people will not obey it... not because the idea couldn't produce those results.
So what can be done about gas prices? Obviously numerous alternatives are in the wings. However for the most part those options are only in the wings because the higher price of gas has made them attractive. If gas went back down to $2-3 a gallon those ventures would dry up in pretty short order. Why? Because the new technologies are going to run consumers at least as much in total cost of owner ship as current cars with fuel costs around that level. Alternatives are needed so I am not that sure lower gas prices are a good thing. But if you want to lower them it is easy. You lower demand.
The majority of gas demand in the US is driven by the daily work commute of the average American. Cut a day of work and you cut that source of demand by ~20%. But I have to work you say? Fine... work from home. The overwhelming majority of white collar work in the US is computer based. We have this wonderful thing called the internet which virtually all said white collar workers have access to at home. They can do computer work at home and only come on days where face to face events are required. As a standing policy I would suggest a 3/2/2 workweek system. 3 in , 2 out and weekend.
Mon, Wed and Friday in the Office. Tuesday and Thursday as standard remote work days. That would produce a large drop in gas demand if it were implemented across the board in the US. It is realistic, and it is overdue. Lower traffic to work leads to lower gas consumption, less congestion, less smog, less emissions and improves quality of life as you spend less time away from home. It seems so simple. But decades of entrenched thought dictates what the work week is and means. While technically easy to implement this calls for a major change in how corporate bean counters and managers think.
Wednesday, April 09, 2008
MLB The Show '08
So... I don't like the standard game mode for all the usual reasons. Fielding just does not work well when you are bugs bunny (playing everyone). And reactions are always messed up because you don't know which player will be selected. But 'Road To the SHOW' is awesome. At least for a pitcher.
What did they get right?
Setting pitches up realistically, hitters strengths and weaknesses are not givens... IE leave a ball in a hot zone and it leaves the park. Most games just don't do well (like most people) with the fact that even a hall of fame caliber hitter is only successful 3 out of 10 times on average even if they get something to hit. That said, screw up in a count favoring the hitter and mistakes will get hammered. Get ahead and hitters get more defensive and are less likely to jump on something... but its still more percentages than 'given'... ie they will hammer it behind in the count and they will miss ahead in the count. Fielding for a pitcher works fairly well though they seem unrealistic on lack of response on shots up the middle. That seems to be tied to your players fielding ability... ie rack up a higher fielding ability with training and more up the middle balls become playable (tappers etc...).
Variable strike zone with ups is only too realistic and VERY frustrating at times.
What did they get wrong?
Default pitch selection signals are horrendous... or maybe that was supposed to reflect bad calling. The game seems to think you have to mix high and low regardless of the pitcher on the hills capabilities and it will call a crap load of up in the zone pitches. There are only a handful of big league pitchers that are successful up in the zone consistently and even they spend most of their time in the lower quarter of the zone. Watch any game and you will see that it is extremely rare for a catcher to ask for a pitch to intentionally be 'up' in the zone.
If you are going to have a 'sweet spot' release point mechanic and you nail it then the pitch should go to the location or reasonably close.
Players should not start at 'F' qualities across the board. Initial point distribution should allow a good 'all round' player or one strong in a couple of areas to be so weak in others. Choosing starting points seems pointless since everything is so awful anyway. If a player was straight F's they wouldn't be in pro ball. Remember those are the attributes that got them a contract. Applying those attributes in games consistently is then what gets them to the show.
The 'missions' or whatever they want to call them are very hit or miss. For a pitcher they love to have random 'strike the batter out' requests which are mostly silly, especially considering how many other little details they got right. Pitchers rarely are on the hook to deliver a strike out. Runner(s) in scoring position with less than two outs is the ONLY time they would even work with a strike out in mind rather than JUST getting them out. At the least getting an out without a runner scoring should have always been a 'positive result'. Measuring pitching success rarely comes down to individual batters. Instead there should have been a pitching chart evaluation for the cumulative outing. IE what percentage of batters were you ahead in the count on, what was your strike/ball ratio, how many times did not let the lead off man on? Etc... these are all things that could have been standard evaluations after the game that were not really to be seen.
Training... man they really goofed that one if you ask me. What they should have done is provided a basic set of points per period in between games and then made players choose what areas to work on. Great performances in games would then have generated bonuses to attributes that were successfully used. IE if a pitcher got a lot of clutch outs they would be granted improvements to clutch performance and been able to focus training elsewhere. Heavy successful use of a pitch would develop aspects of that pitch etc...
All in all though the pitching experience is fantastic from my standpoint. I play every pitch and can REALLY get into the game. Hitters actually seem to respond to the way they are pitched. IE a hiiter who has their weakness exploited will adjust and you can then get them in other areas of the zone (or get hammered if you keep doing the same thing). Larger game trends like reliance on a certain pitch in certain situations will also get you in trouble. The mental game of pitch selection and location is there better than in ANY other game I have ever played.
Road to the show for a fielder is less well done. I don't think they should have limited player involvement to only the plays they were involved in directly. They should have just made it at least every pitch that was put in play. You don't have any chance to get in the 'mental' game of a fielder. Also hitting goals are asinine. Goals like 'reach base safely, or don't strike out' should be for an entire game, not specific at bats. Again hitting just isn't the kind of activity that lends itself well to such specific goals in a given AB. Hit and Run success should be weigted against the quality of pitch received and what was done... getting the ball on the ground to the correct side of the field successfully for a hit is NOT the only means of judging it a success. It is a percentage play in the right counts... which brings up signs. When you bat or are on base then checking signs should be pretty much a given part of every pitch except in obvious 'swing away' circumstances. Also the camera should provide a hitters eye perspective rather than just low behind the catcher... the eye hight is extremely important for pitch recognition etc... Though in the long run for a real decent pitch recognition mechanic in a game they are going to have to have a good 3d image for real depth perception judgement
Speaking of that the camera for base runners rounding second should be given a view of the third base coach... or the third base coach should be in a window. Pick Off warnings should come from the base coach and not from the announcers.
Fielding should include backing plays up... pitchers have a LOT of back up responsibilities but I have yet to see them come into play, and the camera angle for most of the backups of third/home are completely unusable.
Spring training... Why the hell do you only go to spring training if you are auditioning for a new contract? Starters play every year, and up and comers content for roster spots. Top Prospects should always be battling for position in spring training. If you want to give an established 'veteran' the option to skip playing spring training out fine. But honestly I think that is where the 'improvement' dynamic should have been most relevant with it being limited in season by success in games. Practice during the season is largely aimed at keeping sharp.. not on developing except in the minors in some cases.
Foul tips... jeesus H _(*@)(*#&% Christ. Every other at bat sometimes seems like the impossible out where all they do is fould the ball off. It does happen... but rarely does it happen more than a couple of times a game, Early on I literally had like 10 batters in a row where they would foul off an average of 6-10 2 strike pitches... was nutz. Happens WAAAAY to much.
All that said, I love the road to the show for a pitcher. You actually play a game of ball and most of the game is 'right' in terms of what happens though the fielding is sometimes goofy.
Sunday, February 10, 2008
Election 2008: And then there were four
Well last post I said with a hoss race the odds were 50/50 on a party split. I might be smoking crack rock but I think I will stick to them odds. Of course now that the race is polling this closely a lot of folks are talking about a Clinton/Obama ticket. Never say never and there is a lot to say for this one happening. Obama has an obvious 'uniting' theme to get folks behind a Clinton running mate... but the weirdness factor and fox in the hen house element tells me this isn't likely. I really like the idea of Obama departing from politics as usual when it comes to considering potential running mates. The Republicans are going to have a problem with McCain and if Obama chooses wisely and pulls someone in from outside the party, perhaps even from the Republican camp, he could change the rules of the game and split off a chunk of the republican herd... not that he is there by any stretch of the imagination... but its nice to think about what if.
Don't let the close delegate count fool you. For the most part Clinton is still in the drivers seat. Most bobble heads agree that a Convention nomination favors Hillary... all that backlog of dirty behind the scenes politickin of all the Clinton years will pull a LOT of weight when the doors shut on the convention. Obama needs a clear enough mandate from the party to neutralize the super delegate vote otherwise it is likely he will get oh so close... and yet so far from a front running nomination. The scary thing will be if Obama rolls in an eyelash in front of Clinton, and the super delegates toss it to Hillary. It is anyones guess what happens then. Obmama can't go rogue. His message is of uniting and going rogue is the ultimate divisive move. However... the party can split in a less spectacular fashion. Simply dividing the vote will likely knock the democrats out of the running. If Obama pulls ~5% through write ins etc... he hands the election to the Republicans, even if he is no longer a candidate. His fans CAN go rogue.
Talks of a split aside, if you are a Democrat then watching what is evolving has got to be painful. Having a democratic nomination come down to the convention is going to make it very tough on whoever gets it. The mud is slinging and the more it flies the more divided the party will be. This will put enormous pressure on the democrats to scramble immediately just to collect the pieces of their typically scattered party before really focusing on their opponent. Meanwhile the more archaic, less democratic nomination scheme of the Republicans is already doing its thing. Despites the problems McCain has in his own party the writing is on the wall and the healing process begins NOW barring some kind of last mile surge by Mike Huckabee, the issue facing the republicans from here on out will be about getting behind McCain. And after the Republican convention they will come out swinging for the undecideds while the Democrats will be fighting for their own party votes.
A Hillary Nomination is going to throw those undecideds up for much harder contention because the break thus far has been overwhelmingly for Obama. Gen X and Y is starting to throw their weight around and for the most part they will not be happy with a Clinton nod.
**** Update ******
Since I wrote all the above Obama has swept the Potomac primaries and the race is taking on a decidedly different air. A while back I said for Barak to aspire to anything more than a VP nod he would have to string together a solid campaign in a similar manner to the early Dean run in the last election. I did not think it was very likely he could do that and if I wasn't watching it with my own eyes now I would find it hard to believe, yet here he is looking like he has the momentum with a rapidly deflating Hillary striving hard to grasp the crown she thought was fated for her. When Hillary and Bill played the dirty card in South Carolina I said he had to redefine the game or they would out politick him... and damn if he hasn't. Obama has done something no candidate has accomplished since Regan, he has captured the imagination of the American people. He has consistently refused to play the game on his opponents terms and instead has stuck to his ideals and lofty approach to political discourse. The Clinton's held out the bait and it looked like the only responses Barak made would only paint him in a tighter and tighter corner... and he has all but ignored it. Instead he has kept his eye on the prize and refused to get sidetracked with an momentum sucking quagmire of racial posturing. In short he has been a grownup in what has long since degraded into an immature childish dirty game of name calling that we call our national elections of late. Instead he has walked the straight and narrow and come through a very dangerous period in his campaign smelling like roses and looking like he has the hole shot to the convention.
I sincerely hope that I have misjudged the american people and overestimated the Clinton's. I don't agree with all that Obama wants to do. I still think he is long on vision and short on plans if you know what I mean. But at the same time I am the absolute first person to say that the president is the figurehead... the office is the bully pulpit and it is not exactly required that he have it all planned to the 5th significant digit. I don't expect his message to change between now and the convention. I think he has committed to his campaign what and who he is and that change in the sense of choosing different ways of presenting himself just is not a change he is interested in.
My only word of caution to those who see an inevitable Obama coronation at this point is to remember that the Clinton's have been on the ropes numerous times in their long storied careers. True the outlook is bleak... but they have a habit of pulling off the unexpected turn around when least expected. Right now is when they are most dangerous. Do NOT count them out, do NOT take your eyes off of them, they will bite. On the other hand I think they have made one tragic miscalculation. They are now 'the man'. Hillary did such a fine job of establishing herself as a good capable senator that she planted herself in the establishment and it is rankling her to no end. She has fought and fought and fought and finaly has accidentally clawed her way right into the kind of position many of her opponents have found to their disadvantage over the years. It took a freshman senator with a clear element of newness to clearly outline this facet of her for the general public... but the longer this election goes on the more apparent it becomes that she has embraced being the person in power to folks who never could see past the personae to the raw calculated ambition underneath. She thought she could meld the two elements into a final crowning achievement by taking her 'revolution' all the way to the highest office in the land... only here she is so close, only to be getting pushed out by someone with more 'street cred' when it comes to being the radical person fighting for change.
If you wanted to put this in sports parlance here is how I call it right now. Obama has finally taken the ball and it is now his nomination to loose. But he has GOT to put Clinton away. Rolling into the convention without a decisive delegate count in his favor strong enough to rule out the possibility of a brokered convention puts it all back up for grabs. He is now the Patriots on their way to their last score in this years super bowl. Just keep in mind who actually won that game. Put plain... he needs Texas and Ohio the same way he swept the Potomac. It is the next to last hill to climb for the Cinderella man. My hats off to him. If he has done nothing else, I think he has managed to somewhat elevate the level of the game in the world of politics this election... of course their was no where to go but up. But improvement is improvement and I grant him his due.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Election 2008: Where it all stands
I still think it is Clinton's race to loose. The current Delegate count is paltry compared to what is about to go down next tuesday and the sweeping range of states going to the polls is one far more in line with the general election than is the early going onesy twosy deals we have had so far. Super Tuesday is going to be the deciding factor. 24 states are casting votes and if anyone walks away with a decisive victory they will have the baton. Right now my betting money is on Hillary. There is to much experience in her campaign when it comes to dealing with the national stage. To date it seems to me that Barak has relied somewhat on snake charming... hands on old fashioned pump enough crowds up and roll on them through election night. But in the comming week that just won't be possible. You can hit the key areas of a state in a week and build a serious wave of momentum heading into an election, but you can't do that in a week in 24 states which means the deciding factor won't be emotion. It will be a more general view of Obama carrying the day. Perhaps the wave is big enough for him to ride it a little longer. But my guess is the next set of debates is going to frame heavily his somewhat thin depth when it comes to concrete plans of how he wants to lead this country. Calling for change is nice. People have heard him and now they are listening. Soon they are going to want to know more than he wants change. They are going to want to know what KIND of change, and how fast it will happen. And if you ask me this week is the week he has to deliver something.
If he does and does it well I think we are looking at a split Super Tuesday (within 5 points) and a grueling remainder to the rest of the democratic primary. If he doesn't answer the bell then I think Clinton walks away with a 10% or more lead and she will be damn hard for Barak to catch at that point.
Edwards is road Kill as far as the nomination goes and he would probably serve the party well by tossing the towel in and trying to push his votes in a direction that will settle the question of Hillary and Barak before it becomes to divisive for the party. If I were a Democrat I would be seriously concerned right now. Hillary will not concede. And Barak looks to be in it for the long haul. The one thing the party can simply not tolerate once it hits the national stage is a conflicted core with folks on the loosing side upset enough to jump ship.... or worse, to out and out go rouge and split the party thus putting two Democratic candidates in the general election.
On the other side we have the republican race begining to come into focus. Guiliani has been a virtual no show in the results thus far and is trailing Ron Paul. Huckabee seems to be popular but not popular enough to be a threat and will likely fall out barring a miracle on super tuesday. Which leaves the field as McCain and Romney. The Republicans had better suck it up and get behind McCain if you ask me. He will stack up far better than Romney against either of the two Democratic front runners. If they want any hope, and I mean any hope at all they had better circle the wagons around one candidate and pray like hell Hillary and Obama go right down to the wire and splinter the democratic party.
The real interestin thing going on in the republican race to me is Ron Paul. Romney or McCain makes no difference to my mind. If they come out facing a unified democratic party behind Either Hillary or Obama I think they are toast. However, if we see a splintered Democratic party still licking its wounds from a civil war in the party then it opens up the door for the republicans to steal an election that by all rights should be a democratic cakewalk. But there is Ron Paul just sitting there waiting to be a stinker. He is polling better than Ross Perot. He has a track record in congress that will sell well on the national stage if only he can get on it. He ain't going nowhere and if Huckabee and Gulianni bow out and he continues to pull a 10th of the vote... and then marches off to mount a libertarian backed second bid republican campaign in the general election he will be the deciding factor.
Call me a ghoul if you will. But what I really want to see is an honest to god split of the Democratic party down the Obama/Hillary fault line. I want to see an embattled republican candidate with a shaky hold on the republican party. And I want to see Ron Paul sitting there with all three of them on even footing on the national stage with the Media unable to ignore him. In short I want an election that will mount a credible attack on the two party system and rattle it to its very core. I doubt it could be surmounted. But if a crack can be put in the armor, I think you could see a serious shift in the mindset of the most apathetic voting block. They could see an opening through which they could vent all their frustration if only they could be handed an option to actually challenge the existing system.
Not that I think there is a snowballs chance in hell it will happen that way... but I would like to see it. On the issue of a Democratic party split I would give it as high as 1 in 10 odds right now... and I would move them to 50/50 if we have a hoss race coming out of next Tuesday. But the Republicans have no issues right now which would prevent them closing ranks behind their eventual nominee... and that as they say is that. I do expect to see Ron Paul out on the general election campaign trail unless he just becomes completely irrelevant. If he polls 5% or better on Super Tuesday I think he will be on the general election Ballot in some shape form or fashion.
For those hoping that Obama will storm through super Tuesday like he did South Carolina... I wouldn't hold your breath. But if Hillary misjudged the tactics in South Carolina and the next week sees a serious backlash against her campaign in the Media it might get right interestin... but no matter what, I just don't see Obama taking super tuesday overall with more than say a 5% lead and if he does that he and everyone in his campaign will be dancing a jig in cut time. I hope I am wrong actually. I would rather see Obama set on his way to a cakewalk nomination with a fat super tuesday pounding of Hillary. If it happens it will be one for the history books.
Amazon Kindle: Is the e-book finally here?
Enter e-ink technology. To date this incredible technology has been largely stillborn due to DRM strangulation, publisher greed and an inability to cut the desktop/laptop tether. But the Kindle is doing a lot to change that. Its EVDO connection cuts the umbilical and gives you access to new materials in most places through the device itself. Imagine if when you finished your current book you could just select the next book you want to read, you got charged for the new book and the pages re-loaded to the new book (you get to keep the old ones of course) and you could do it anywhere. IE you didn't have to go home to your computer, you didn't have to go to the store. You could do it anywhere you had a cellphone connection. That is what the Kindle has done. A paid for wireless connection to the book store.
That connection is the true power of the kindle. In a stroke Amazon has joined a reflective display on par with the printed word with wireless access to the published world. It is the first real honest to god step on the way to a paperless world.
So if I think it is so great then why haven't I taken the plunge? Because by and large it is the first step. The first real step... but the first step none the less. Granted I may still take the plunge on the kindle. I travel enough that the idea of having a highly portable device with multiple books on it is very seductive. But the Kindle still suffers from the same ultimate problem of previous attempts at e-book systems... the fact that they are trying to be the only answer is Amazon's most grievous error. paper doesn't care who or what is printed on it. The Kindle only works (largely) through the Amazon store. When you start talking about its ability to work in other ways you encounter all the old intractable problems of previous efforts. Conversion, tied to a computer etc... Had Amazon managed to unite all e-book publishers, or at least made the kindle work wirelessly with all existing e-book outlets (including their own) then I would have been on it to begin with... because then they would have been going down the path of making e-books what they should be. A tool for accessing ANY book. Not just the particular library of a given set of agreements.
You see.... Amazon's solution is 'good enough' for a good bit of popular pleasure reading. But it does not currently nor will it ever (based on the current system) have the simple freedom I have now just in ordering books from their site. IE if a book exists to be bought I can probably buy it through Amazon. This simple amazing feat that they accomplished is what built them. But this e-book technology has no such freedom. I cannot purchase any book available through amazon and request it be delivered in electronic format for the Kindle. If I could I would own one because I could make the eventual swap to an entirely electronic library. No, I can only order what is specifically available in electronic format and that is a very small subset of what is available. Amazon has not really broken the design of prior e-book publishing schemes... they just broke new ground on the method of delivery. It is impressive but ultimately limited.
If Amazon announced that ANY book available for purchase on their site would be provided for the kindle, and that any book I had purchased through them in the past would be available free of charge for the kindle I would order one right now at double the cost. And I think a large number of other people would as well. The ability to transfer my previous amazon purchases to a new electronic storage format and the ability to have the complete amazon library as the basis for future purchases would be enough for me to swallow the still ultimate limitation of one company trying to own the 'new' paper. Because you see... Amazon is perhaps the greatest distributor ever of published material. And limiting to only what they have available means having access to the vast majority of what is available for sale in the printed world.
The issue of books aside... if you are a blog reader, read a lot of best sellers etc... then the kindle is probably for you whether your realize it or not. Access to online material does not have the same issues as the existing printed world and most newspapers are waking up and smelling the coffee on this one. As a periodical distribution technology the Kindle is going to shine and it may well be what keeps it going long enough to make a dent in the book world.
Specifically regarding the device itself... without having held it in my hands and used it myself I can't really speak to its quality, usefullness etc... but based on the numerous reviews I have read and videos I have watched I can tell you this thing is good enough if you want it to be. If you are as yet unfamiliar with e-ink displays all I can tell you is to go see it for yourself. If you have never seen it in person you are likely still thinking of it in terms of what you are used to with computer displays and that just isn't a good comparison. e-ink has more in common with printed paper than it does an LCD. It is that good. So go check it out. Sure there is a refresh delay when changing pages... but there is when you flip a page as well. Harsh criticism of the refresh rate is rooted in computer display tech... not reading tech. An e-ink device is not a computer that lets you read a book. It is a book that has some aspects of a computer. Its abilities are miraculous if you think of them in comparison with a static book. They are inconsequential and largely insurmountable flaws when compared to even a PDA in computer comparisons.
The kindle is a good electronic book... in many ways it is the first electronic book. But it is also trying to be a computer with an e-ink display. On that front the verdict is not nearly so kind... and for me what I want is most certainly a computer with an e-ink display. Perhaps in the not to distant future I will be writing about the device itself rather than the idea of it. However I think that is not likely until at least Kindle 2.0 (e-ink is a rapidly developing tech)... or as I mentioned, a change in how Amazon approaches providing material for the Kindle.
Election 2008: Race and Gender in America
Welcome one, Welcome all to the re-birth of the Billary show. Bill Clinton the X factor of election '08 is in da house and he is a Teflon strawman able to say things Hillary (or any candidate) could never say or get away with in an election. His role is nothing new as major supporters of candidates have been in this position before, but none would get listened to as much as Bil. If Barak goes after Bill he chases the wild goose and goes off topic and Hillary can flay him for it. If he ignores Bill he is equally hosed unless he can actually convince everyone to ignore him or hope he self destructs. Both highly unlikely considering the past. I don't envy Barak, he is up against one of the slickest political teams ever assembled, run by two of the best pure politicians... and unfortunately Bill is the slicker by far and he is now comfortably tucked away in a largely un-asailable position. He goes to far he is just an ardent supporter of his wife "I just love my wife and perhaps I am just over compensating for not always being there for her....". He gets attacked he asks why he is being debated instead of the candidate.. "Hey Hillary is running not me....". Pretty much anything that can happen bad to Clinton can be deflected into support for Hillary. It is beautiful. It is the never before seen dynamic of a former president being the spouse of a front running presidential candidate. They are playing a well known hand but with never before encountered circumstances... which means the playbook for how to handle it has been tossed out the window. Sure it is a high wire act, but they are the flying Clinton's, used to the heady tripwire laden, land mine abundant field of the national stage. Never you worry they will keep up their end. It is up to Barak to find the right response to this new dynamic... and he had best find it soon.
Admiration for the genius of the Clinton machine aside, I find their tactics appalling and despicable. Turning SC into a racial debate is like taking candy from a baby, and is demeaning to the state as a whole because right now the Clinton's have managed to phrase the outcome of the election in such a way that it will only be judged racially by the media (and thus largely by the sheep of the general public). If Barak wins it will be pointed out that it was due to Black support for a black candidate and not because he was the best candidate. If Hillary wins it will be because they were able to transcend race when casting the vote... regardless of the fact that means whoever wins South Carolina will do so because of the support of the Black vote. Why is that? Because South Carolina IS 60% BLACK. This is highly unfair to the people of SC. Is race and issue? Certainly. Are the vast majority of folks swayed by race and race alone when it comes to choosing a candidate ? NO. Is it wrong to desire a candidate that is more similar to you? No. If white presidents have not been derided in the popular media as having won only because they are white and through support of a largely white voting population, it should not be a reasonable claim that Barak winning SC is only due to the color of his skin. It should be because he is the most appealing candidate to the voters there.
I think Barak has to take the high road here. He doesn't have to be the Black candidate, and he does not have to be 'unblack' or anything. He just has to be American. As for how to do that without directly speaking to the racial spin slowly but surely developing as the filter through which his entire campaign will be viewed? All I know is it is going to be tricky. Talking to it just means that many more sound bites where all a potential voter hears is Obama talking about race. Not addressing it means allowing the opponent to define the race with innuendo. In a chess match this is called a fork. He is forked if he does and forked if he doesn't. The ball is as always, in the Clinton's hands and they have to drop it for him to run with it... at least so long as he allows them to define the game. Barak has got to come up with a new game with new rules. Sooner or later he is going to have to break the mold he is being shoved into... and the way he has been campaigning is not going to be enough.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
The 700mhz auction: What is all the fuss about?
Let us keep it simple. Remember the world before cell phones? Remember the internet before AOL started giving all you could eat access for 19.99 a month? Remember how big a change it made for folks to be able to reach folks anywhere with a cell phone and how the internet suddenly became useful when you could actually use it all the time?
Well *fingers crossed* the result of the 700mhz auction is going to bring those two factors together. Cheap all you can eat access to the internet on the go. No more being limited to wifi hotspots. No more penny per kb cellular data access charges. The idea will be that you could have a cellphone, laptop, pda, etc... with a 700mhz based system in it and you will have a reasonable monthly fee for access to the internet.
Most wonder how having the internet on the go with you will change anything over just having it at your house. To me those are the exact same people that said having a cell phone would not really be any different from having a phone at your house. I think it is hard to overestimate the impact universal web access will have. And it will have it in both anticipated and unanticipated ways. It will be cellphones on steroids.
What sucks is that this could already be happening. And the reason it isn't happening already is unfortunately a possible reason why the 700mhz spectrum could end in more of the same. Expensive mobile data costs from the same old providers with no way in for someone who wants to change the game.
That is the fuss. The diametrically opposed forces behind the auction that want to use the technology in one way or the other. Google has done as much as they can to ensure that no matter who wins the use of the spectrum will be far more open and accessible that wireless data spectrums of the past. But the true fate will ride in the hands of the auction winner. I for one hopes Google puts their money where their mouth is and goes after it with every bit of market power they now possess.
What could this be for Google? This could be the last mile. 700mhz could put Google almost immediately in touch with just about everyone in America. Right now you can only reach google's services through an ISP... ie through existing telco and cable companies for a fee. Google would likely do the exact same thing they have always done and give away the service in return for your eyballs on adds. In effect it would complete the circle of Googles life. Many seem to think their advertisement model is new. It isn't. Giving away the content to the masses in return for advertisement dollars from marketers is the broadcast TV model of doing business. And if Google wins a block of the auction they could step in and provide internet access in return for add revenue much the way ABC/NBC/FOX etc give away sitcoms for add revenue based on commercials. If they can support broadband rates of access then mobile communications becomes cheap rather than a significant monthly cost. America could go from being the most expensive mobile data/voice nation to the cheapest. And then our rate of inovation would finally have a chance to have a go at just what would be possible with universal one the go data access.
The pieces of the puzzle as I see them fitting together.
Android: the cellular OS system designed by Google and soon to be unleashed on the world. This means they are ready to support mobile on the go systems. They want people on existing systems, but Android will not care what spectrum is used to access it. This means if the race to the bottom is won by an existing technology google has adaptable software that will be relevant no matter who wins. But if Google does own a piece of the pie then suddenly making a physical handset would be likely. But even if they do not, the different way google does business will have an easy time attacting hardware developers to the new spectrum without the headaches of designing hardware for existing cellular networks. The design limitations will be what customers want, not what networks want/will allow.
Google Mobile Data centers + Google Dark Fiber + Google 700mhz ownership: We all have heard about Google's mobile data centers but nobody has really explained what they will be good for. Sure they can help provide added horsepower in high traffic areas of the backbone. But they could also be dumped at the base of a radio tower with access to some of the Google Dark Fiber and provide the last mile wirelessly to folks via the 700mhz spectrum. With the mobile data centers this means Google can roll this out in a hurry and then formalize the infrastructure at a later date (if needed). Getting the bandwidth will mean nothing if they are not posed to exploit it. These three pieces of the google pie, of which they already contain two, could enable them to deploy a parallel internet backbone with widespread wireless access in relatively short order. No building, No hiring. Just dump crates where they are needed and wire them up, manage them remotely. Voila, Google is now in the drivers seat for internet access.... if the access hardware support falls into place with it.
So Google has a mobile device OS, Massive amounts of fiber nationwide, portable data centers that could be deployed to provide last mile wireless access to the fiber over the 700mhz spectrum (if they or a willing 700mhz owner) gets control of the spectrum.... the only thing missing is the hardware that uses the spectrum. Laptop cards, USB dongles, SD devices, Compact flash devices can come quickly and retrofit multiple devices in short order. The next generation will have it built in. We could see this happen in two years. To my eyes Google is positioned about as well as they can be. Success is not dependent on them having control of it all, it just so happens that it probably would be best if they did.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Real ID
Hint to those not in the know in DC. There is no such thing as an un-hackable, un re-createable ID. Why is this? It exists, therefor it can be copied. If it is done once it can and will be done again by someone else. All this is doing is racking up state budgets with a program they can't afford and placing a greater burden on law abiding citizens and stoking fear. Not fear of the enemy, fear their papers will not be in order. Fear the DHS mandated pat down will lead to a back room and someone with a rubber glove looking to probe you in places you would rather not be probed... and that will be the GOOD possibilities. The bad possibilities are that going into such a back room will begin to mean the same thing it does in other places of the world where many folks disappear. It will make people even more insular and less interested in travel which means less money spent on tourism and on and on and on. It will also make them despise their own government more and more. A trend that has been building for several decades here in the good old U S of A.
What is next? Approval required for any international travel? Border checks between states? Not allowing American citizens into federal buildings? Oh wait that last is a potential reality for any citizens of states that decide the tell the federal government to shove it on a requirement slipped into a military funding bill without proper hearing on the congressional floor... real democratic that little piece of work.
DHS, wake up and smell the shit you are shoveling. Homeland security is not about pestering the citizens of the state you are hired to make secure. It isn't about papers being in order or painful application processes. If terrorism has a book... you are following it by doing your absolute best to prove you are so paranoid about your own citizenry that you begin to turn against them, to suspect them, and in the end to successfully turn them in to the enemy... this kind of stuff is the stuff of which Revolutions are made.
No Taxation without representation. No Real ID... far fetched comparison? The air of late is starting to remind me of what I have seen of the McCarthy hearings. Are you a memeber of the communist party vrs Are you a terrorist? Why did you visit Afgahnistan? Why did you take a job in the middle east? Why did you room with a Pakistani in College?
Now perhaps you are thinking I am going a bit over the top here. Am I against the idea of having a unified ID? No not really. But we pretty much already have one in SS. There are far better ways to implement this than through state drivers licenses. If the Federal government wants a mandated federal ID then the federal government should implement and fork out for it. They have no business levying requirements on the states to do so. They have no business levying how states will or will not implement security in their borders. The Federal goverment is about EXTERNAL security and about inter state dispute. Hence Passports for international travel are fine by me. Federal requirements for ID to travel domestically? NO. If the Federal government wants to do this then it needs to have a truly open discussion on the house and senate floor on a single purpose bill... not some sneaky ass buried line item added as a last minute rider on a bill no one in their right mind was going to vote against.
When you have to 'sneak' things by then there might just be a problem. Remember this is a democracy. If people Choose to be less safe, more prone to identity theft then that is the RIGHT of the people if they do not want a particular policy in place. It is not for members of government to decide for us by circumventing the full process of government to get something they think is necesarry. My opposition to Real ID isn't to the concept of a unified national ID, it is to the underhanded, un-constitutional, and just plain unamerican way in which it has been brought about. It is due to the irrational uses the ID is to be put to and senseless reasons for justifying its existence. This will NOT stamp out fake ID. This will NOT stop underaged smoking. Nothing which has been proposed would even have denied ID to the Terrorists responsible for 9/11 had Real ID been in place at the time. So what is the damn point? I am against it because the concept and implementation and supposed purpose are damn near Orwellian in nature. Isn't that enough?
Thursday, January 17, 2008
NOKIA N810 Internet Tablet, a personal look
So I have had one of these gizmos for about a week now. Gizmo is definitely the right word for what this device is. I like it… actually I LOVE it but this is not to say it is for everyone. I have been eying the Nokia Internet Tablets since the introduction of the 770 with a great deal of interest but the N810 (3rd iteration) is the first that got me to take the plunge. So let us take a look at what tipped me over the edge.
Overview:
If you didn't already know, this thing is about 25% bigger than the iphone, It has a higher resolution (800x480) transreflective LED b/l touch screen. It is kicking 400mhz with 256/128 on the ROM/RAM front and has two additional flash memory cards, one which is an integral card at 2gb and one miniSD slot. It has Bluetooth, wi-fi and a micro USB connection that can support USB host but is primarly for USB client (serves as a card reader for the internal and removable flash cards). It has a built in GPS receiver and slide out qwerty keyboard. Most importantly it is operating on Linux… a huge blessing AND curse but more on that later. The upshot is this device is very malleable to many purposes rather than custom delivered to one manufacturer controlled configuration. The N810 is truly a device that is defined by you… and not by NOKIA. If you are not going to take the time to extract what you want from the device then you are most likely going to be left a bit cold at the thought of plunking down the money for a pocket sized web browser/e-mail machine…. About the only things it really does good out of the box.
The Good:
The Size:
The slender design is just dead sexy… well if not sexy it is SOLID. I stayed away from the previous tablets due to their lack of keyboard and because they were falling to the wrong side of the dividing line between true pocket friendliness and joke inducing pocket transport (is that a tablet in your pants or…. I am sure you know the rest ). The 770 and 800 were both good devices but the lack of keyboard and pudgy (by mobile standards) size seemed to lead most to relegating them to the backpack when on the go. This dropped them more into comparisons with micro laptops rather than with PDA/smartphones. The 810's design focus on slender with a reduced bezel distilled the tablet line to focus entirely on its strongest feature, a mobile touch screen with real world resolution and plopped its size right into the upper bands of PDA's and smartphones. The limiting factor of most current smart phones/PDAs is and will continue to be QVGA… I am of the opinion the size is far too limiting in regards to what you can display on the screen at one time and is fatally flawed. In contrast, full screen mode on the Nokia internet tablets can display the most popular web page resolution without scrolling sideways (800 width) and you typically only have to scroll down and up (finger friendly). Even on 1024+ sites you tend to be able to see the primary content without side to side scrolling. With the N810's weight loss and slender form you now have this functionality in a true pocket sized package. I understand many bemoan the fact you have to slide out the keyboard for the direction pad… but not having become accustomed to the previous iterations I have to say finger dragging works just fine for me. I will grant it is wise to have a micro fiber cloth handy, but as a long time Windows Mobile smart phone user I am long since accustomed to dealing with the grime of heavy traffic finger screens. Perhaps one day this issue will be dealt with. But for now I will gladly take the smaller more pocket friendly size over a few mm extra here and there for more buttons on the closed up device.
Construction Quality:
Metal Metal and more Metal. This device feels like a solid little bar of aluminum in a good way. It has none of the fragile feel of many cell phones these days. It feels like it was designed to have a long useful and active life, not to be discarded lightly or left behind often. This has been a common thread with all of the tablet devices and I can't help but notice many are still are devoted to their 770 tablets. A wonderful change of pace from the typical chintzy feel of most high end mobile devices these days. Nokia and Apple understand the need for quality construction at least in some of their products.
OS:
The implementation of Linux is good and bad, here is the good. It gives you CHOICE. Nokia didn't lock the device down, they left it wide open for folks to develop and tinker with it to their hearts desire. Thus this is a solid base from which to do some serious mobile device tinkering. Included GPS gives you location information and the open source community gives you metric crap loads of code to sort through as a starting point to creating your ultimate on the go companion. They did an excellent job implementing an interface that is finger friendly though admittedly not quite up to snuff when compared to Apple's superb i-phone and touch interface. It is still light years ahead of windows mobile and the various flavors of symbian I have been exposed to over the years. Given the fact Apple devices are pretty much always in configuration lock down hell it really was never much of a choice for me. I like tinkering, and I crave the ability to make the device behave the way I want it to rather than ONLY the way the designers anticipated. One size fits none in my book. Apple does a great job creating targeted devices that perform admirably at what they decided the device would do… but I much prefer the Nokia approach to open provide an open ended device for the community to work on.
Connectivity:
Connectivity options that are to be found are well implemented and only have one glaring omission (Bluetooth PAN is not supported by default). The high mobility laptop makers should take note of the cell phone tethering wizard and follow suit. Wi-Fi is point and click though I have yet to attempt a WEP connection. USB host presents lots of great possibilities but they are largely thwarted by the micro USB connector… price to pay for the slenderness I suppose. Obviously a standard host port is not an option here (yes its THAT thin), though I think a mini b connector should have been chosen over the largely unknown micro. However, it DOES do host and there are solutions for it. Since it uses an up to date Linux kernel that means the sky is the limit if you are determined enough. On the software front the availability of Pidgin and Skype in full trim rather than mobile hacks makes for a very capable device when it comes to standard instant communication options. Gizmo is a bit to new to know how useful that will be and of course it includes support for standard SIP VOIP protocol so enter your account details and off you go as well. All in all very slick and tidy. Wrap it all up with a full fledged Xterm and Linux command line warriors ride off into the sunset with a very large grin firmly planted on their faces.
Available Software:
Open source repository based package installation software. While the standard Nokia repositories can be a bit flaky, there are several third party repositories with most of the same software and the new/beta/alpha developer community code. The package handling system keeps the pain of Linux software building/installation safely hidden from those not inclined to such things. Additionally it gives you access to programs that would cost you $$$ in typical mobile device software frameworks.
Browsing:
Firefox pared down to its essentials, AJAX works, Flash works. You can watch youtube and you are only limited by your connection speed. This is the best browsing you are going to get in a mobile device this side of an i-phone or UMPC running a full up desktop OS on the larger side.
The Bad
Cellular Voice/Data:
I hadn't had it for 5 minutes before I fell into the camp of followers who wish like hell this thing had a sim chip slot and GSM cellular radio. I had seen pictures of the size comparisons but it really hadn't sunk in just how close this thing is in size to my HTC slider phone. The screen difference is like night and day. Granted I think I understand the reluctance on Nokia's part to not include cell capability and It obviously isn't a deal breaker for me. Pairing with a phone isn't all bad but it is somewhat of a pain to need two devices. On the plus side, as long as Bluetooth networking and DUN are able to tie into a phone connection you can be agnostic about your carriers technology… also you don't need separate data plans if you didn't want to use the device as a phone. Personally I think they should develop a GSM world wide 3g version. Paired with a wristwatch status screen and Bluetooth headset this could be a killer device on your hip. This hardware with cellular capability is what Open Moko should be trying to get their hands on.
In the long run, Nokia is at the cross roads of smart phones and UMPC with these devices. The trend is most certainly towards mobile broadband connectivity of some sort in devices of this nature. I think the time is coming soon when there will need to be a cellular capable version of the tablet. For now I think not including it is the right choice. But CES just launched the attack of the MID's which are all firmly aiming at the Nokia Tablet and I-pod Touch successes and most of them are rolling in with Cellular options. Sooner or later the cell phone market is going to get much more friendly to mobile data access and having multiple plans, or multiple access per plan will not be such a painful consideration. I think that is going to be the glory day of the MID, Nokia Internet Tablet type device. We could be getting close to the Star Trek datapad here.
GPS:
Why in gods name did they not go with a sirfIII chipset? The cold start up time for the GPS receiver is old school… as in before mobile GPS really became very useful old school. Its reception works ok in the car on the open road, but GPS is most useful for something like city exploring… and in urban canyons it fails miserably. However, the bigger sin by far was not bundling a fully capable program with the built in receiver. The map application is mostly good only for showing that the receiver works than for any practical application of GPS. You have to fork over 100+ more dollars to get the real software. To add insult to injury the included maps take up most of the internal card space. The internal receiver, bad or not, with included functional software would have been acceptable. Crappy receiver with crippleware is just silly for the added cost to the device. There are uses for it as is… and the open source mapper provides much of what is missing provided you download the maps ahead of time or have an unlimited cellular data plan to access via your phone.
Look for the next generation to work on this… I have yet to see anyone with a posted online review/opinion of the device fail to hammer this particular issue. If GPS is what has you paying attention to on this device I would say wait or look elsewhere unless you have a serious need for a single device with some of its other capabilities.
Camera:
I suppose there are uses for a VGA webcam on a device like this but I just am not sure what. Gizmo is the only software out of the box that uses it and the user base isn't there. Not to mention video calling has been a technical reality for about 10 years now and widely practical for the last 5 and it just hasn't taken off. That is about all the camera would possibly be good for and it requires very good lighting for any kind of reasonable image. This is a feature check box… I think they would have done better to repurpose the space for the camera to minib USB or even upping back to full SD on the memory card. I could see a use for one of the higher resolution mobile cameras (2.0mp or better)… document 'scanning', business card pictures etc. It wouldn't surprise me to see the N-95 5mp camera show up on the next iteration. While I would still question just how useful it would be, I can see far more use at that point than with this current one.
PAN Connectivity:
Boo hiss on the lack of Bluetooth PAN support out of the box. One might interpret this as Nokia not wanting the device to work easily with Win Mo 6 phones seeing as they have largely moved to a DUN less setup by default and Nokia is sticking to DUN. Enabling PAN would make the device truly handset agnostic at the potential expense of Nokia phone sales. I would be one such to interpret it as so. There is NO reason why PAN should not have been included or added once it became obvious many phones were moving to incorporating it at the expense of DUN. As is, it takes a fairly involved hack to get it up and running, and the hack is something of a moving target as Nokia is releasing OS updates…. This is one of those things that should be getting easier, not more difficult. I like coding and have a fair amount of experience digging around Linux config files etc… it took me about 3 days to Google up the fix for the latest release of OS2008 which was different from the easy to find work around for the first iteration of OS2008, which were in turn different from the OS2007 and OS2006 hack details. Suffice to say if you have a PAN connection phone without DUN and root means the under soil portion of a plant to you then I would highly advise you steer clear if you are anticipating using the tablet tethered to a cell phone, unless you are also willing to switch to a phone with DUN profile
Storage:
My guess is Nokia was to far into the design by the time it became obvious that miniSD was pretty much dead on the vine with flash makers trending to Full SD or Micro. Had the trend to micro been more obvious at the time my guess is they would have kept the dual card setup of the 800 and just moved to micro. Ah how easy to say in hind sight. On the other hand it isn't like 10gb or even 14gb (new 12gb micros are coming) combined flash storage is bad. Personally I would prefer a battery covered micro paired with a full SD external. SD seems to be creeping into compact flash territory with some added peripherals in addition to memory cards being designed for the SD interface, add in the fact the max capacity/speed of SD is far superior. I see a very strong case for biting off the added size.
OS:
The customized mobile UI means that vast stretches of Linux open source software is off limits. This shows most acutely in the lack of thunderbird ports and or Open Office ports which present the most glaring gaps in functionality of the device that is currently available. To some extent such complaints are so much howling at the moon. After all there is only so much one can ask of 400mhz and 128mb of RAM so some of the lacking ports are more due to technological limitations than to desire for them. Pretty much anything else that is obvious has been ported already.
Office Software:
No Calendar, No Office Document viewing for either OO or MS Office? A mostly irrelevant contact and e-mail client? How could they let this device out the door without a FULL PIM suite? Sure there is a Garnet VM for Palm PDA folks. But the software was just not designed for this display and it shows. This is the single most glaring gap in the default device. Currently there is no solution either from Nokia or from the development community around the device. Linux has long been in search of a capable Exchange client and the search continues. I keep hoping someone will come out with a Client side for Google Apps that works standalone and syncs with the online apps. Google is making steady progress in the direction of challenging the MS stranglehold on professional PIM and office software usage.
Charging:
No charging over USB, standard Nokia charger needed. Old story with Nokia and it is still a problem. Just throwing in a USB to charger input cable would have been nice. They could have done two miniB USB connectors, both capable USB ports instead of a micro USB and single purpose power port. I really don't think anyone would have complained about the 1, maybe 2mm difference in the thickness that MAY have been required to do so.
Conclusion:
Well if you read this you might say… geee there seems to be a lot more bad about this device than good. In my mind if that is the way you read it then the device probably isn't for you. If you are of the mind… yeah but I can change a lot of those problems, or they might change in time anyway. Then I think you understand why I love this device. Software gripes can be addressed, The GPS is good enough despite the flawed execution, and there just isn't anything else in this hardware class that is as open ended a device. It has its flaws of that there is no doubt. But it has some serious strengths. For example I paired it with a stowaway Bluetooth keyboard and BAM I had a pretty capable little note taking setup that was much smaller and more flexible than even a micro laptop setup. There is software for pairing it with a bluetooth OBDII scanner for running diagnostics on your car ECU (model years 96 and beyond). Unlike smart phones you can comfortably read text without feeling like you are constantly scrolling/flipping the page etc… it fits a good amount of data on the screen at once at readable levels. It has a high quality build with plenty of thoughtful touches, buttons are not in high traffic hold points, built in kickstand with multiple notches for different angles, protected Micro card slot, USB port, and battery case release button. A screen that can still be viewed in full sunlight.
N810 vrs N800 decision points.
If you are one of the folks agonizing over a choice between the 800 and 810 the key considerations are size, GPS, storage, and of course the slide out keyboard. I feel very confident saying the 810 will go with you more places than the 800. The size reduction gets the tablet into upper end of the smart phone range as opposed to being well outside of it for the 800. Put another way the 800 will likely stay in your backpack where the 810 will go in your pocket. The keyboard is the second major factor. For me, this kind of device without a keyboard is a deal breaker and is probably the single largest factor in me deciding against the 770 and 800, but to each their own. Storage can be an issue, two SD slots provides a great deal more flexibility in storage and even periphial interfaces for the 800. The drawback is the bulk of the 800, your call. MicroSD into a mini adaptor now gives up to 12gb on a single chip. If I could choose one thing to change on the 810 I think it would be for a full size SD in place of the mini. Last and definitely least is in my opinion is the GPS. Yes it has it but it is horribly implemented and the decision to not put in a sirf III chipset or one of equivalent capability was moronic…. This is a last gen GPS without a good bundled software solution. For the added cost of the 810 over the 800 + the cost to upgrade the GPS software to practical status you could by a nice dedicated Garmin or TOM TOM unit. If integration and one device is a huge deal then look into the upcoming SD based sirf III chips for the n800, or go with a blue tooth receiver on either device (seriously)…. To give you an idea how much this receiver sucks, I will probably continue to use my sirf III Bluetooth receiver with my 810.
Unlike many I just do not think cost should be a major deciding factor, there are non-cost reasons to go with the 800 over the 810. And the reasons for choosing the 810 over the 800 have to do with specific features that are not shared… IE you can't really address them with the 800 so added cost just goes with the territory. For example do not cheat yourself out of a built in keyboard if you need it… it will just make you hate settling. If you need the slimmer size you will regret the larger clunk. The only case in which money should be the decider is if you just can't afford the 810 and the 800 will still meet your personal needs. If the answer for you is the 810 then I would just keep saving rather than settling on the 800.
N810 vrs i-pod touch/i-phone decision points.
If you only want web browsing and music/video content management then don't discount the Touch and/or i-phone. Key lack of the touch is no Bluetooth so no tethering for cellular data access, wifi only. Lack of a keyboard on either kills them for me. Touch screens are good at many things… typing isn't one of them. They also hold the edge in size, but at the cost of some VERY valuable pixels, granted there is a heaping serving of Apple mojo to stretch the pixels they do have to their absolute max with out of this world zoom technology.