About a year ago I took a look at where I thought the '08 election was headed. So far I think I was pretty on the money with the sole exception of my take on Gore. I really thought he would at least dabble his toe in the water a little. But for now he is completely out of it. No Polls, no endorsements, nothing. If he maintains this lack of involvement then it bodes well for Clinton because I really think if he came out and endorsed Obama it would put Barak over the top for good.
I still think it is Clinton's race to loose. The current Delegate count is paltry compared to what is about to go down next tuesday and the sweeping range of states going to the polls is one far more in line with the general election than is the early going onesy twosy deals we have had so far. Super Tuesday is going to be the deciding factor. 24 states are casting votes and if anyone walks away with a decisive victory they will have the baton. Right now my betting money is on Hillary. There is to much experience in her campaign when it comes to dealing with the national stage. To date it seems to me that Barak has relied somewhat on snake charming... hands on old fashioned pump enough crowds up and roll on them through election night. But in the comming week that just won't be possible. You can hit the key areas of a state in a week and build a serious wave of momentum heading into an election, but you can't do that in a week in 24 states which means the deciding factor won't be emotion. It will be a more general view of Obama carrying the day. Perhaps the wave is big enough for him to ride it a little longer. But my guess is the next set of debates is going to frame heavily his somewhat thin depth when it comes to concrete plans of how he wants to lead this country. Calling for change is nice. People have heard him and now they are listening. Soon they are going to want to know more than he wants change. They are going to want to know what KIND of change, and how fast it will happen. And if you ask me this week is the week he has to deliver something.
If he does and does it well I think we are looking at a split Super Tuesday (within 5 points) and a grueling remainder to the rest of the democratic primary. If he doesn't answer the bell then I think Clinton walks away with a 10% or more lead and she will be damn hard for Barak to catch at that point.
Edwards is road Kill as far as the nomination goes and he would probably serve the party well by tossing the towel in and trying to push his votes in a direction that will settle the question of Hillary and Barak before it becomes to divisive for the party. If I were a Democrat I would be seriously concerned right now. Hillary will not concede. And Barak looks to be in it for the long haul. The one thing the party can simply not tolerate once it hits the national stage is a conflicted core with folks on the loosing side upset enough to jump ship.... or worse, to out and out go rouge and split the party thus putting two Democratic candidates in the general election.
On the other side we have the republican race begining to come into focus. Guiliani has been a virtual no show in the results thus far and is trailing Ron Paul. Huckabee seems to be popular but not popular enough to be a threat and will likely fall out barring a miracle on super tuesday. Which leaves the field as McCain and Romney. The Republicans had better suck it up and get behind McCain if you ask me. He will stack up far better than Romney against either of the two Democratic front runners. If they want any hope, and I mean any hope at all they had better circle the wagons around one candidate and pray like hell Hillary and Obama go right down to the wire and splinter the democratic party.
The real interestin thing going on in the republican race to me is Ron Paul. Romney or McCain makes no difference to my mind. If they come out facing a unified democratic party behind Either Hillary or Obama I think they are toast. However, if we see a splintered Democratic party still licking its wounds from a civil war in the party then it opens up the door for the republicans to steal an election that by all rights should be a democratic cakewalk. But there is Ron Paul just sitting there waiting to be a stinker. He is polling better than Ross Perot. He has a track record in congress that will sell well on the national stage if only he can get on it. He ain't going nowhere and if Huckabee and Gulianni bow out and he continues to pull a 10th of the vote... and then marches off to mount a libertarian backed second bid republican campaign in the general election he will be the deciding factor.
Call me a ghoul if you will. But what I really want to see is an honest to god split of the Democratic party down the Obama/Hillary fault line. I want to see an embattled republican candidate with a shaky hold on the republican party. And I want to see Ron Paul sitting there with all three of them on even footing on the national stage with the Media unable to ignore him. In short I want an election that will mount a credible attack on the two party system and rattle it to its very core. I doubt it could be surmounted. But if a crack can be put in the armor, I think you could see a serious shift in the mindset of the most apathetic voting block. They could see an opening through which they could vent all their frustration if only they could be handed an option to actually challenge the existing system.
Not that I think there is a snowballs chance in hell it will happen that way... but I would like to see it. On the issue of a Democratic party split I would give it as high as 1 in 10 odds right now... and I would move them to 50/50 if we have a hoss race coming out of next Tuesday. But the Republicans have no issues right now which would prevent them closing ranks behind their eventual nominee... and that as they say is that. I do expect to see Ron Paul out on the general election campaign trail unless he just becomes completely irrelevant. If he polls 5% or better on Super Tuesday I think he will be on the general election Ballot in some shape form or fashion.
For those hoping that Obama will storm through super Tuesday like he did South Carolina... I wouldn't hold your breath. But if Hillary misjudged the tactics in South Carolina and the next week sees a serious backlash against her campaign in the Media it might get right interestin... but no matter what, I just don't see Obama taking super tuesday overall with more than say a 5% lead and if he does that he and everyone in his campaign will be dancing a jig in cut time. I hope I am wrong actually. I would rather see Obama set on his way to a cakewalk nomination with a fat super tuesday pounding of Hillary. If it happens it will be one for the history books.
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