About a year ago I took a look at where I thought the '08 election was headed. So far I think I was pretty on the money with the sole exception of my take on Gore. I really thought he would at least dabble his toe in the water a little. But for now he is completely out of it. No Polls, no endorsements, nothing. If he maintains this lack of involvement then it bodes well for Clinton because I really think if he came out and endorsed Obama it would put Barak over the top for good.
I still think it is Clinton's race to loose. The current Delegate count is paltry compared to what is about to go down next tuesday and the sweeping range of states going to the polls is one far more in line with the general election than is the early going onesy twosy deals we have had so far. Super Tuesday is going to be the deciding factor. 24 states are casting votes and if anyone walks away with a decisive victory they will have the baton. Right now my betting money is on Hillary. There is to much experience in her campaign when it comes to dealing with the national stage. To date it seems to me that Barak has relied somewhat on snake charming... hands on old fashioned pump enough crowds up and roll on them through election night. But in the comming week that just won't be possible. You can hit the key areas of a state in a week and build a serious wave of momentum heading into an election, but you can't do that in a week in 24 states which means the deciding factor won't be emotion. It will be a more general view of Obama carrying the day. Perhaps the wave is big enough for him to ride it a little longer. But my guess is the next set of debates is going to frame heavily his somewhat thin depth when it comes to concrete plans of how he wants to lead this country. Calling for change is nice. People have heard him and now they are listening. Soon they are going to want to know more than he wants change. They are going to want to know what KIND of change, and how fast it will happen. And if you ask me this week is the week he has to deliver something.
If he does and does it well I think we are looking at a split Super Tuesday (within 5 points) and a grueling remainder to the rest of the democratic primary. If he doesn't answer the bell then I think Clinton walks away with a 10% or more lead and she will be damn hard for Barak to catch at that point.
Edwards is road Kill as far as the nomination goes and he would probably serve the party well by tossing the towel in and trying to push his votes in a direction that will settle the question of Hillary and Barak before it becomes to divisive for the party. If I were a Democrat I would be seriously concerned right now. Hillary will not concede. And Barak looks to be in it for the long haul. The one thing the party can simply not tolerate once it hits the national stage is a conflicted core with folks on the loosing side upset enough to jump ship.... or worse, to out and out go rouge and split the party thus putting two Democratic candidates in the general election.
On the other side we have the republican race begining to come into focus. Guiliani has been a virtual no show in the results thus far and is trailing Ron Paul. Huckabee seems to be popular but not popular enough to be a threat and will likely fall out barring a miracle on super tuesday. Which leaves the field as McCain and Romney. The Republicans had better suck it up and get behind McCain if you ask me. He will stack up far better than Romney against either of the two Democratic front runners. If they want any hope, and I mean any hope at all they had better circle the wagons around one candidate and pray like hell Hillary and Obama go right down to the wire and splinter the democratic party.
The real interestin thing going on in the republican race to me is Ron Paul. Romney or McCain makes no difference to my mind. If they come out facing a unified democratic party behind Either Hillary or Obama I think they are toast. However, if we see a splintered Democratic party still licking its wounds from a civil war in the party then it opens up the door for the republicans to steal an election that by all rights should be a democratic cakewalk. But there is Ron Paul just sitting there waiting to be a stinker. He is polling better than Ross Perot. He has a track record in congress that will sell well on the national stage if only he can get on it. He ain't going nowhere and if Huckabee and Gulianni bow out and he continues to pull a 10th of the vote... and then marches off to mount a libertarian backed second bid republican campaign in the general election he will be the deciding factor.
Call me a ghoul if you will. But what I really want to see is an honest to god split of the Democratic party down the Obama/Hillary fault line. I want to see an embattled republican candidate with a shaky hold on the republican party. And I want to see Ron Paul sitting there with all three of them on even footing on the national stage with the Media unable to ignore him. In short I want an election that will mount a credible attack on the two party system and rattle it to its very core. I doubt it could be surmounted. But if a crack can be put in the armor, I think you could see a serious shift in the mindset of the most apathetic voting block. They could see an opening through which they could vent all their frustration if only they could be handed an option to actually challenge the existing system.
Not that I think there is a snowballs chance in hell it will happen that way... but I would like to see it. On the issue of a Democratic party split I would give it as high as 1 in 10 odds right now... and I would move them to 50/50 if we have a hoss race coming out of next Tuesday. But the Republicans have no issues right now which would prevent them closing ranks behind their eventual nominee... and that as they say is that. I do expect to see Ron Paul out on the general election campaign trail unless he just becomes completely irrelevant. If he polls 5% or better on Super Tuesday I think he will be on the general election Ballot in some shape form or fashion.
For those hoping that Obama will storm through super Tuesday like he did South Carolina... I wouldn't hold your breath. But if Hillary misjudged the tactics in South Carolina and the next week sees a serious backlash against her campaign in the Media it might get right interestin... but no matter what, I just don't see Obama taking super tuesday overall with more than say a 5% lead and if he does that he and everyone in his campaign will be dancing a jig in cut time. I hope I am wrong actually. I would rather see Obama set on his way to a cakewalk nomination with a fat super tuesday pounding of Hillary. If it happens it will be one for the history books.
Saturday, January 26, 2008
Amazon Kindle: Is the e-book finally here?
I normally try not to write about tech devices which I do not own. I am a fairly firm believer that it is hard to truly come to grips with a device that you do not fork over the money for yourself. Granted this makes it hard to compare devices, but the simple act of choosing one over the other in the end says alot about the device. However, in the case of the Kindle I think the issue is not the device itself. It is the decision to buy one that is at stake. This is not just another hand held whiz bang. It is a device which has the basic premise of replacing the single most important technology development of the last few thousand years, the printed book. Despite the profound impact of computers, they have not made a real dent on the physical publication media with the sole exception of ephemeral current affairs discourse (the news). Computers have been long on the promise of leaving paper behind... but short on actually delivering.
Enter e-ink technology. To date this incredible technology has been largely stillborn due to DRM strangulation, publisher greed and an inability to cut the desktop/laptop tether. But the Kindle is doing a lot to change that. Its EVDO connection cuts the umbilical and gives you access to new materials in most places through the device itself. Imagine if when you finished your current book you could just select the next book you want to read, you got charged for the new book and the pages re-loaded to the new book (you get to keep the old ones of course) and you could do it anywhere. IE you didn't have to go home to your computer, you didn't have to go to the store. You could do it anywhere you had a cellphone connection. That is what the Kindle has done. A paid for wireless connection to the book store.
That connection is the true power of the kindle. In a stroke Amazon has joined a reflective display on par with the printed word with wireless access to the published world. It is the first real honest to god step on the way to a paperless world.
So if I think it is so great then why haven't I taken the plunge? Because by and large it is the first step. The first real step... but the first step none the less. Granted I may still take the plunge on the kindle. I travel enough that the idea of having a highly portable device with multiple books on it is very seductive. But the Kindle still suffers from the same ultimate problem of previous attempts at e-book systems... the fact that they are trying to be the only answer is Amazon's most grievous error. paper doesn't care who or what is printed on it. The Kindle only works (largely) through the Amazon store. When you start talking about its ability to work in other ways you encounter all the old intractable problems of previous efforts. Conversion, tied to a computer etc... Had Amazon managed to unite all e-book publishers, or at least made the kindle work wirelessly with all existing e-book outlets (including their own) then I would have been on it to begin with... because then they would have been going down the path of making e-books what they should be. A tool for accessing ANY book. Not just the particular library of a given set of agreements.
You see.... Amazon's solution is 'good enough' for a good bit of popular pleasure reading. But it does not currently nor will it ever (based on the current system) have the simple freedom I have now just in ordering books from their site. IE if a book exists to be bought I can probably buy it through Amazon. This simple amazing feat that they accomplished is what built them. But this e-book technology has no such freedom. I cannot purchase any book available through amazon and request it be delivered in electronic format for the Kindle. If I could I would own one because I could make the eventual swap to an entirely electronic library. No, I can only order what is specifically available in electronic format and that is a very small subset of what is available. Amazon has not really broken the design of prior e-book publishing schemes... they just broke new ground on the method of delivery. It is impressive but ultimately limited.
If Amazon announced that ANY book available for purchase on their site would be provided for the kindle, and that any book I had purchased through them in the past would be available free of charge for the kindle I would order one right now at double the cost. And I think a large number of other people would as well. The ability to transfer my previous amazon purchases to a new electronic storage format and the ability to have the complete amazon library as the basis for future purchases would be enough for me to swallow the still ultimate limitation of one company trying to own the 'new' paper. Because you see... Amazon is perhaps the greatest distributor ever of published material. And limiting to only what they have available means having access to the vast majority of what is available for sale in the printed world.
The issue of books aside... if you are a blog reader, read a lot of best sellers etc... then the kindle is probably for you whether your realize it or not. Access to online material does not have the same issues as the existing printed world and most newspapers are waking up and smelling the coffee on this one. As a periodical distribution technology the Kindle is going to shine and it may well be what keeps it going long enough to make a dent in the book world.
Specifically regarding the device itself... without having held it in my hands and used it myself I can't really speak to its quality, usefullness etc... but based on the numerous reviews I have read and videos I have watched I can tell you this thing is good enough if you want it to be. If you are as yet unfamiliar with e-ink displays all I can tell you is to go see it for yourself. If you have never seen it in person you are likely still thinking of it in terms of what you are used to with computer displays and that just isn't a good comparison. e-ink has more in common with printed paper than it does an LCD. It is that good. So go check it out. Sure there is a refresh delay when changing pages... but there is when you flip a page as well. Harsh criticism of the refresh rate is rooted in computer display tech... not reading tech. An e-ink device is not a computer that lets you read a book. It is a book that has some aspects of a computer. Its abilities are miraculous if you think of them in comparison with a static book. They are inconsequential and largely insurmountable flaws when compared to even a PDA in computer comparisons.
The kindle is a good electronic book... in many ways it is the first electronic book. But it is also trying to be a computer with an e-ink display. On that front the verdict is not nearly so kind... and for me what I want is most certainly a computer with an e-ink display. Perhaps in the not to distant future I will be writing about the device itself rather than the idea of it. However I think that is not likely until at least Kindle 2.0 (e-ink is a rapidly developing tech)... or as I mentioned, a change in how Amazon approaches providing material for the Kindle.
Enter e-ink technology. To date this incredible technology has been largely stillborn due to DRM strangulation, publisher greed and an inability to cut the desktop/laptop tether. But the Kindle is doing a lot to change that. Its EVDO connection cuts the umbilical and gives you access to new materials in most places through the device itself. Imagine if when you finished your current book you could just select the next book you want to read, you got charged for the new book and the pages re-loaded to the new book (you get to keep the old ones of course) and you could do it anywhere. IE you didn't have to go home to your computer, you didn't have to go to the store. You could do it anywhere you had a cellphone connection. That is what the Kindle has done. A paid for wireless connection to the book store.
That connection is the true power of the kindle. In a stroke Amazon has joined a reflective display on par with the printed word with wireless access to the published world. It is the first real honest to god step on the way to a paperless world.
So if I think it is so great then why haven't I taken the plunge? Because by and large it is the first step. The first real step... but the first step none the less. Granted I may still take the plunge on the kindle. I travel enough that the idea of having a highly portable device with multiple books on it is very seductive. But the Kindle still suffers from the same ultimate problem of previous attempts at e-book systems... the fact that they are trying to be the only answer is Amazon's most grievous error. paper doesn't care who or what is printed on it. The Kindle only works (largely) through the Amazon store. When you start talking about its ability to work in other ways you encounter all the old intractable problems of previous efforts. Conversion, tied to a computer etc... Had Amazon managed to unite all e-book publishers, or at least made the kindle work wirelessly with all existing e-book outlets (including their own) then I would have been on it to begin with... because then they would have been going down the path of making e-books what they should be. A tool for accessing ANY book. Not just the particular library of a given set of agreements.
You see.... Amazon's solution is 'good enough' for a good bit of popular pleasure reading. But it does not currently nor will it ever (based on the current system) have the simple freedom I have now just in ordering books from their site. IE if a book exists to be bought I can probably buy it through Amazon. This simple amazing feat that they accomplished is what built them. But this e-book technology has no such freedom. I cannot purchase any book available through amazon and request it be delivered in electronic format for the Kindle. If I could I would own one because I could make the eventual swap to an entirely electronic library. No, I can only order what is specifically available in electronic format and that is a very small subset of what is available. Amazon has not really broken the design of prior e-book publishing schemes... they just broke new ground on the method of delivery. It is impressive but ultimately limited.
If Amazon announced that ANY book available for purchase on their site would be provided for the kindle, and that any book I had purchased through them in the past would be available free of charge for the kindle I would order one right now at double the cost. And I think a large number of other people would as well. The ability to transfer my previous amazon purchases to a new electronic storage format and the ability to have the complete amazon library as the basis for future purchases would be enough for me to swallow the still ultimate limitation of one company trying to own the 'new' paper. Because you see... Amazon is perhaps the greatest distributor ever of published material. And limiting to only what they have available means having access to the vast majority of what is available for sale in the printed world.
The issue of books aside... if you are a blog reader, read a lot of best sellers etc... then the kindle is probably for you whether your realize it or not. Access to online material does not have the same issues as the existing printed world and most newspapers are waking up and smelling the coffee on this one. As a periodical distribution technology the Kindle is going to shine and it may well be what keeps it going long enough to make a dent in the book world.
Specifically regarding the device itself... without having held it in my hands and used it myself I can't really speak to its quality, usefullness etc... but based on the numerous reviews I have read and videos I have watched I can tell you this thing is good enough if you want it to be. If you are as yet unfamiliar with e-ink displays all I can tell you is to go see it for yourself. If you have never seen it in person you are likely still thinking of it in terms of what you are used to with computer displays and that just isn't a good comparison. e-ink has more in common with printed paper than it does an LCD. It is that good. So go check it out. Sure there is a refresh delay when changing pages... but there is when you flip a page as well. Harsh criticism of the refresh rate is rooted in computer display tech... not reading tech. An e-ink device is not a computer that lets you read a book. It is a book that has some aspects of a computer. Its abilities are miraculous if you think of them in comparison with a static book. They are inconsequential and largely insurmountable flaws when compared to even a PDA in computer comparisons.
The kindle is a good electronic book... in many ways it is the first electronic book. But it is also trying to be a computer with an e-ink display. On that front the verdict is not nearly so kind... and for me what I want is most certainly a computer with an e-ink display. Perhaps in the not to distant future I will be writing about the device itself rather than the idea of it. However I think that is not likely until at least Kindle 2.0 (e-ink is a rapidly developing tech)... or as I mentioned, a change in how Amazon approaches providing material for the Kindle.
Election 2008: Race and Gender in America
So it took till South Carolina for the Democratic race to pull out the gender and race cards. Oh sure its been mentioned many times before now...first woman president, first black president etc... but until now neither has been cast as a Woman candidate or Black candidate, they have just been Candidates. Hillary still isn't being viewed as a woman candidate, largely because Obama isn't going there. But the Clinton's are hinting like mad to poison the well (win) of South Carolina by all but outright saying that if he wins its just because he is black. Of course it might backfire if they win, but at this point that does not seem likely.
Welcome one, Welcome all to the re-birth of the Billary show. Bill Clinton the X factor of election '08 is in da house and he is a Teflon strawman able to say things Hillary (or any candidate) could never say or get away with in an election. His role is nothing new as major supporters of candidates have been in this position before, but none would get listened to as much as Bil. If Barak goes after Bill he chases the wild goose and goes off topic and Hillary can flay him for it. If he ignores Bill he is equally hosed unless he can actually convince everyone to ignore him or hope he self destructs. Both highly unlikely considering the past. I don't envy Barak, he is up against one of the slickest political teams ever assembled, run by two of the best pure politicians... and unfortunately Bill is the slicker by far and he is now comfortably tucked away in a largely un-asailable position. He goes to far he is just an ardent supporter of his wife "I just love my wife and perhaps I am just over compensating for not always being there for her....". He gets attacked he asks why he is being debated instead of the candidate.. "Hey Hillary is running not me....". Pretty much anything that can happen bad to Clinton can be deflected into support for Hillary. It is beautiful. It is the never before seen dynamic of a former president being the spouse of a front running presidential candidate. They are playing a well known hand but with never before encountered circumstances... which means the playbook for how to handle it has been tossed out the window. Sure it is a high wire act, but they are the flying Clinton's, used to the heady tripwire laden, land mine abundant field of the national stage. Never you worry they will keep up their end. It is up to Barak to find the right response to this new dynamic... and he had best find it soon.
Admiration for the genius of the Clinton machine aside, I find their tactics appalling and despicable. Turning SC into a racial debate is like taking candy from a baby, and is demeaning to the state as a whole because right now the Clinton's have managed to phrase the outcome of the election in such a way that it will only be judged racially by the media (and thus largely by the sheep of the general public). If Barak wins it will be pointed out that it was due to Black support for a black candidate and not because he was the best candidate. If Hillary wins it will be because they were able to transcend race when casting the vote... regardless of the fact that means whoever wins South Carolina will do so because of the support of the Black vote. Why is that? Because South Carolina IS 60% BLACK. This is highly unfair to the people of SC. Is race and issue? Certainly. Are the vast majority of folks swayed by race and race alone when it comes to choosing a candidate ? NO. Is it wrong to desire a candidate that is more similar to you? No. If white presidents have not been derided in the popular media as having won only because they are white and through support of a largely white voting population, it should not be a reasonable claim that Barak winning SC is only due to the color of his skin. It should be because he is the most appealing candidate to the voters there.
I think Barak has to take the high road here. He doesn't have to be the Black candidate, and he does not have to be 'unblack' or anything. He just has to be American. As for how to do that without directly speaking to the racial spin slowly but surely developing as the filter through which his entire campaign will be viewed? All I know is it is going to be tricky. Talking to it just means that many more sound bites where all a potential voter hears is Obama talking about race. Not addressing it means allowing the opponent to define the race with innuendo. In a chess match this is called a fork. He is forked if he does and forked if he doesn't. The ball is as always, in the Clinton's hands and they have to drop it for him to run with it... at least so long as he allows them to define the game. Barak has got to come up with a new game with new rules. Sooner or later he is going to have to break the mold he is being shoved into... and the way he has been campaigning is not going to be enough.
Welcome one, Welcome all to the re-birth of the Billary show. Bill Clinton the X factor of election '08 is in da house and he is a Teflon strawman able to say things Hillary (or any candidate) could never say or get away with in an election. His role is nothing new as major supporters of candidates have been in this position before, but none would get listened to as much as Bil. If Barak goes after Bill he chases the wild goose and goes off topic and Hillary can flay him for it. If he ignores Bill he is equally hosed unless he can actually convince everyone to ignore him or hope he self destructs. Both highly unlikely considering the past. I don't envy Barak, he is up against one of the slickest political teams ever assembled, run by two of the best pure politicians... and unfortunately Bill is the slicker by far and he is now comfortably tucked away in a largely un-asailable position. He goes to far he is just an ardent supporter of his wife "I just love my wife and perhaps I am just over compensating for not always being there for her....". He gets attacked he asks why he is being debated instead of the candidate.. "Hey Hillary is running not me....". Pretty much anything that can happen bad to Clinton can be deflected into support for Hillary. It is beautiful. It is the never before seen dynamic of a former president being the spouse of a front running presidential candidate. They are playing a well known hand but with never before encountered circumstances... which means the playbook for how to handle it has been tossed out the window. Sure it is a high wire act, but they are the flying Clinton's, used to the heady tripwire laden, land mine abundant field of the national stage. Never you worry they will keep up their end. It is up to Barak to find the right response to this new dynamic... and he had best find it soon.
Admiration for the genius of the Clinton machine aside, I find their tactics appalling and despicable. Turning SC into a racial debate is like taking candy from a baby, and is demeaning to the state as a whole because right now the Clinton's have managed to phrase the outcome of the election in such a way that it will only be judged racially by the media (and thus largely by the sheep of the general public). If Barak wins it will be pointed out that it was due to Black support for a black candidate and not because he was the best candidate. If Hillary wins it will be because they were able to transcend race when casting the vote... regardless of the fact that means whoever wins South Carolina will do so because of the support of the Black vote. Why is that? Because South Carolina IS 60% BLACK. This is highly unfair to the people of SC. Is race and issue? Certainly. Are the vast majority of folks swayed by race and race alone when it comes to choosing a candidate ? NO. Is it wrong to desire a candidate that is more similar to you? No. If white presidents have not been derided in the popular media as having won only because they are white and through support of a largely white voting population, it should not be a reasonable claim that Barak winning SC is only due to the color of his skin. It should be because he is the most appealing candidate to the voters there.
I think Barak has to take the high road here. He doesn't have to be the Black candidate, and he does not have to be 'unblack' or anything. He just has to be American. As for how to do that without directly speaking to the racial spin slowly but surely developing as the filter through which his entire campaign will be viewed? All I know is it is going to be tricky. Talking to it just means that many more sound bites where all a potential voter hears is Obama talking about race. Not addressing it means allowing the opponent to define the race with innuendo. In a chess match this is called a fork. He is forked if he does and forked if he doesn't. The ball is as always, in the Clinton's hands and they have to drop it for him to run with it... at least so long as he allows them to define the game. Barak has got to come up with a new game with new rules. Sooner or later he is going to have to break the mold he is being shoved into... and the way he has been campaigning is not going to be enough.
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
The 700mhz auction: What is all the fuss about?
Digital broadcast TV is going to vacate the upper ranges of the spectrum they have been using for the last several decades. Those of you who recall actually watching terrestrial broadcast TV will know the 700mhz band as channels 52-69. This means that one of the best broadcast ranges for wireless data transmission will now be available for use. The auction is for who gets control. Why is this such a big hairy deal?
Let us keep it simple. Remember the world before cell phones? Remember the internet before AOL started giving all you could eat access for 19.99 a month? Remember how big a change it made for folks to be able to reach folks anywhere with a cell phone and how the internet suddenly became useful when you could actually use it all the time?
Well *fingers crossed* the result of the 700mhz auction is going to bring those two factors together. Cheap all you can eat access to the internet on the go. No more being limited to wifi hotspots. No more penny per kb cellular data access charges. The idea will be that you could have a cellphone, laptop, pda, etc... with a 700mhz based system in it and you will have a reasonable monthly fee for access to the internet.
Most wonder how having the internet on the go with you will change anything over just having it at your house. To me those are the exact same people that said having a cell phone would not really be any different from having a phone at your house. I think it is hard to overestimate the impact universal web access will have. And it will have it in both anticipated and unanticipated ways. It will be cellphones on steroids.
What sucks is that this could already be happening. And the reason it isn't happening already is unfortunately a possible reason why the 700mhz spectrum could end in more of the same. Expensive mobile data costs from the same old providers with no way in for someone who wants to change the game.
That is the fuss. The diametrically opposed forces behind the auction that want to use the technology in one way or the other. Google has done as much as they can to ensure that no matter who wins the use of the spectrum will be far more open and accessible that wireless data spectrums of the past. But the true fate will ride in the hands of the auction winner. I for one hopes Google puts their money where their mouth is and goes after it with every bit of market power they now possess.
What could this be for Google? This could be the last mile. 700mhz could put Google almost immediately in touch with just about everyone in America. Right now you can only reach google's services through an ISP... ie through existing telco and cable companies for a fee. Google would likely do the exact same thing they have always done and give away the service in return for your eyballs on adds. In effect it would complete the circle of Googles life. Many seem to think their advertisement model is new. It isn't. Giving away the content to the masses in return for advertisement dollars from marketers is the broadcast TV model of doing business. And if Google wins a block of the auction they could step in and provide internet access in return for add revenue much the way ABC/NBC/FOX etc give away sitcoms for add revenue based on commercials. If they can support broadband rates of access then mobile communications becomes cheap rather than a significant monthly cost. America could go from being the most expensive mobile data/voice nation to the cheapest. And then our rate of inovation would finally have a chance to have a go at just what would be possible with universal one the go data access.
The pieces of the puzzle as I see them fitting together.
Android: the cellular OS system designed by Google and soon to be unleashed on the world. This means they are ready to support mobile on the go systems. They want people on existing systems, but Android will not care what spectrum is used to access it. This means if the race to the bottom is won by an existing technology google has adaptable software that will be relevant no matter who wins. But if Google does own a piece of the pie then suddenly making a physical handset would be likely. But even if they do not, the different way google does business will have an easy time attacting hardware developers to the new spectrum without the headaches of designing hardware for existing cellular networks. The design limitations will be what customers want, not what networks want/will allow.
Google Mobile Data centers + Google Dark Fiber + Google 700mhz ownership: We all have heard about Google's mobile data centers but nobody has really explained what they will be good for. Sure they can help provide added horsepower in high traffic areas of the backbone. But they could also be dumped at the base of a radio tower with access to some of the Google Dark Fiber and provide the last mile wirelessly to folks via the 700mhz spectrum. With the mobile data centers this means Google can roll this out in a hurry and then formalize the infrastructure at a later date (if needed). Getting the bandwidth will mean nothing if they are not posed to exploit it. These three pieces of the google pie, of which they already contain two, could enable them to deploy a parallel internet backbone with widespread wireless access in relatively short order. No building, No hiring. Just dump crates where they are needed and wire them up, manage them remotely. Voila, Google is now in the drivers seat for internet access.... if the access hardware support falls into place with it.
So Google has a mobile device OS, Massive amounts of fiber nationwide, portable data centers that could be deployed to provide last mile wireless access to the fiber over the 700mhz spectrum (if they or a willing 700mhz owner) gets control of the spectrum.... the only thing missing is the hardware that uses the spectrum. Laptop cards, USB dongles, SD devices, Compact flash devices can come quickly and retrofit multiple devices in short order. The next generation will have it built in. We could see this happen in two years. To my eyes Google is positioned about as well as they can be. Success is not dependent on them having control of it all, it just so happens that it probably would be best if they did.
Let us keep it simple. Remember the world before cell phones? Remember the internet before AOL started giving all you could eat access for 19.99 a month? Remember how big a change it made for folks to be able to reach folks anywhere with a cell phone and how the internet suddenly became useful when you could actually use it all the time?
Well *fingers crossed* the result of the 700mhz auction is going to bring those two factors together. Cheap all you can eat access to the internet on the go. No more being limited to wifi hotspots. No more penny per kb cellular data access charges. The idea will be that you could have a cellphone, laptop, pda, etc... with a 700mhz based system in it and you will have a reasonable monthly fee for access to the internet.
Most wonder how having the internet on the go with you will change anything over just having it at your house. To me those are the exact same people that said having a cell phone would not really be any different from having a phone at your house. I think it is hard to overestimate the impact universal web access will have. And it will have it in both anticipated and unanticipated ways. It will be cellphones on steroids.
What sucks is that this could already be happening. And the reason it isn't happening already is unfortunately a possible reason why the 700mhz spectrum could end in more of the same. Expensive mobile data costs from the same old providers with no way in for someone who wants to change the game.
That is the fuss. The diametrically opposed forces behind the auction that want to use the technology in one way or the other. Google has done as much as they can to ensure that no matter who wins the use of the spectrum will be far more open and accessible that wireless data spectrums of the past. But the true fate will ride in the hands of the auction winner. I for one hopes Google puts their money where their mouth is and goes after it with every bit of market power they now possess.
What could this be for Google? This could be the last mile. 700mhz could put Google almost immediately in touch with just about everyone in America. Right now you can only reach google's services through an ISP... ie through existing telco and cable companies for a fee. Google would likely do the exact same thing they have always done and give away the service in return for your eyballs on adds. In effect it would complete the circle of Googles life. Many seem to think their advertisement model is new. It isn't. Giving away the content to the masses in return for advertisement dollars from marketers is the broadcast TV model of doing business. And if Google wins a block of the auction they could step in and provide internet access in return for add revenue much the way ABC/NBC/FOX etc give away sitcoms for add revenue based on commercials. If they can support broadband rates of access then mobile communications becomes cheap rather than a significant monthly cost. America could go from being the most expensive mobile data/voice nation to the cheapest. And then our rate of inovation would finally have a chance to have a go at just what would be possible with universal one the go data access.
The pieces of the puzzle as I see them fitting together.
Android: the cellular OS system designed by Google and soon to be unleashed on the world. This means they are ready to support mobile on the go systems. They want people on existing systems, but Android will not care what spectrum is used to access it. This means if the race to the bottom is won by an existing technology google has adaptable software that will be relevant no matter who wins. But if Google does own a piece of the pie then suddenly making a physical handset would be likely. But even if they do not, the different way google does business will have an easy time attacting hardware developers to the new spectrum without the headaches of designing hardware for existing cellular networks. The design limitations will be what customers want, not what networks want/will allow.
Google Mobile Data centers + Google Dark Fiber + Google 700mhz ownership: We all have heard about Google's mobile data centers but nobody has really explained what they will be good for. Sure they can help provide added horsepower in high traffic areas of the backbone. But they could also be dumped at the base of a radio tower with access to some of the Google Dark Fiber and provide the last mile wirelessly to folks via the 700mhz spectrum. With the mobile data centers this means Google can roll this out in a hurry and then formalize the infrastructure at a later date (if needed). Getting the bandwidth will mean nothing if they are not posed to exploit it. These three pieces of the google pie, of which they already contain two, could enable them to deploy a parallel internet backbone with widespread wireless access in relatively short order. No building, No hiring. Just dump crates where they are needed and wire them up, manage them remotely. Voila, Google is now in the drivers seat for internet access.... if the access hardware support falls into place with it.
So Google has a mobile device OS, Massive amounts of fiber nationwide, portable data centers that could be deployed to provide last mile wireless access to the fiber over the 700mhz spectrum (if they or a willing 700mhz owner) gets control of the spectrum.... the only thing missing is the hardware that uses the spectrum. Laptop cards, USB dongles, SD devices, Compact flash devices can come quickly and retrofit multiple devices in short order. The next generation will have it built in. We could see this happen in two years. To my eyes Google is positioned about as well as they can be. Success is not dependent on them having control of it all, it just so happens that it probably would be best if they did.
Saturday, January 19, 2008
Real ID
I have a real problem with the Real ID concept. Not allowing people on planes without an approved 'real id' or a passport? Even if flying state to state when you can drive across borders without any such ID check? This smacks far to much of 'Papers Please'. DHS is fast becoming a fear mongering blight on the nation. What exactly are they trying to fix? They want to make it more difficult to get a fake ID... and yet the 9/11 folks had REAL ID's all on the up and up. The reason for which states issued them ID have not changed, students on visa etc... and will not EVER change so it doesn't matter how difficult you make it to get an ID. How 'copy proof' it is made. That isn't the problem. The problem is we have and will always have people visiting this country who will need to function in society. If you make ID a requirement to function in society you have just ensured you WILL issue said ID to the people you don't want to have it. Because you will not know who will misuse it and who will not.
Hint to those not in the know in DC. There is no such thing as an un-hackable, un re-createable ID. Why is this? It exists, therefor it can be copied. If it is done once it can and will be done again by someone else. All this is doing is racking up state budgets with a program they can't afford and placing a greater burden on law abiding citizens and stoking fear. Not fear of the enemy, fear their papers will not be in order. Fear the DHS mandated pat down will lead to a back room and someone with a rubber glove looking to probe you in places you would rather not be probed... and that will be the GOOD possibilities. The bad possibilities are that going into such a back room will begin to mean the same thing it does in other places of the world where many folks disappear. It will make people even more insular and less interested in travel which means less money spent on tourism and on and on and on. It will also make them despise their own government more and more. A trend that has been building for several decades here in the good old U S of A.
What is next? Approval required for any international travel? Border checks between states? Not allowing American citizens into federal buildings? Oh wait that last is a potential reality for any citizens of states that decide the tell the federal government to shove it on a requirement slipped into a military funding bill without proper hearing on the congressional floor... real democratic that little piece of work.
DHS, wake up and smell the shit you are shoveling. Homeland security is not about pestering the citizens of the state you are hired to make secure. It isn't about papers being in order or painful application processes. If terrorism has a book... you are following it by doing your absolute best to prove you are so paranoid about your own citizenry that you begin to turn against them, to suspect them, and in the end to successfully turn them in to the enemy... this kind of stuff is the stuff of which Revolutions are made.
No Taxation without representation. No Real ID... far fetched comparison? The air of late is starting to remind me of what I have seen of the McCarthy hearings. Are you a memeber of the communist party vrs Are you a terrorist? Why did you visit Afgahnistan? Why did you take a job in the middle east? Why did you room with a Pakistani in College?
Now perhaps you are thinking I am going a bit over the top here. Am I against the idea of having a unified ID? No not really. But we pretty much already have one in SS. There are far better ways to implement this than through state drivers licenses. If the Federal government wants a mandated federal ID then the federal government should implement and fork out for it. They have no business levying requirements on the states to do so. They have no business levying how states will or will not implement security in their borders. The Federal goverment is about EXTERNAL security and about inter state dispute. Hence Passports for international travel are fine by me. Federal requirements for ID to travel domestically? NO. If the Federal government wants to do this then it needs to have a truly open discussion on the house and senate floor on a single purpose bill... not some sneaky ass buried line item added as a last minute rider on a bill no one in their right mind was going to vote against.
When you have to 'sneak' things by then there might just be a problem. Remember this is a democracy. If people Choose to be less safe, more prone to identity theft then that is the RIGHT of the people if they do not want a particular policy in place. It is not for members of government to decide for us by circumventing the full process of government to get something they think is necesarry. My opposition to Real ID isn't to the concept of a unified national ID, it is to the underhanded, un-constitutional, and just plain unamerican way in which it has been brought about. It is due to the irrational uses the ID is to be put to and senseless reasons for justifying its existence. This will NOT stamp out fake ID. This will NOT stop underaged smoking. Nothing which has been proposed would even have denied ID to the Terrorists responsible for 9/11 had Real ID been in place at the time. So what is the damn point? I am against it because the concept and implementation and supposed purpose are damn near Orwellian in nature. Isn't that enough?
Hint to those not in the know in DC. There is no such thing as an un-hackable, un re-createable ID. Why is this? It exists, therefor it can be copied. If it is done once it can and will be done again by someone else. All this is doing is racking up state budgets with a program they can't afford and placing a greater burden on law abiding citizens and stoking fear. Not fear of the enemy, fear their papers will not be in order. Fear the DHS mandated pat down will lead to a back room and someone with a rubber glove looking to probe you in places you would rather not be probed... and that will be the GOOD possibilities. The bad possibilities are that going into such a back room will begin to mean the same thing it does in other places of the world where many folks disappear. It will make people even more insular and less interested in travel which means less money spent on tourism and on and on and on. It will also make them despise their own government more and more. A trend that has been building for several decades here in the good old U S of A.
What is next? Approval required for any international travel? Border checks between states? Not allowing American citizens into federal buildings? Oh wait that last is a potential reality for any citizens of states that decide the tell the federal government to shove it on a requirement slipped into a military funding bill without proper hearing on the congressional floor... real democratic that little piece of work.
DHS, wake up and smell the shit you are shoveling. Homeland security is not about pestering the citizens of the state you are hired to make secure. It isn't about papers being in order or painful application processes. If terrorism has a book... you are following it by doing your absolute best to prove you are so paranoid about your own citizenry that you begin to turn against them, to suspect them, and in the end to successfully turn them in to the enemy... this kind of stuff is the stuff of which Revolutions are made.
No Taxation without representation. No Real ID... far fetched comparison? The air of late is starting to remind me of what I have seen of the McCarthy hearings. Are you a memeber of the communist party vrs Are you a terrorist? Why did you visit Afgahnistan? Why did you take a job in the middle east? Why did you room with a Pakistani in College?
Now perhaps you are thinking I am going a bit over the top here. Am I against the idea of having a unified ID? No not really. But we pretty much already have one in SS. There are far better ways to implement this than through state drivers licenses. If the Federal government wants a mandated federal ID then the federal government should implement and fork out for it. They have no business levying requirements on the states to do so. They have no business levying how states will or will not implement security in their borders. The Federal goverment is about EXTERNAL security and about inter state dispute. Hence Passports for international travel are fine by me. Federal requirements for ID to travel domestically? NO. If the Federal government wants to do this then it needs to have a truly open discussion on the house and senate floor on a single purpose bill... not some sneaky ass buried line item added as a last minute rider on a bill no one in their right mind was going to vote against.
When you have to 'sneak' things by then there might just be a problem. Remember this is a democracy. If people Choose to be less safe, more prone to identity theft then that is the RIGHT of the people if they do not want a particular policy in place. It is not for members of government to decide for us by circumventing the full process of government to get something they think is necesarry. My opposition to Real ID isn't to the concept of a unified national ID, it is to the underhanded, un-constitutional, and just plain unamerican way in which it has been brought about. It is due to the irrational uses the ID is to be put to and senseless reasons for justifying its existence. This will NOT stamp out fake ID. This will NOT stop underaged smoking. Nothing which has been proposed would even have denied ID to the Terrorists responsible for 9/11 had Real ID been in place at the time. So what is the damn point? I am against it because the concept and implementation and supposed purpose are damn near Orwellian in nature. Isn't that enough?
Thursday, January 17, 2008
NOKIA N810 Internet Tablet, a personal look
So I have had one of these gizmos for about a week now. Gizmo is definitely the right word for what this device is. I like it… actually I LOVE it but this is not to say it is for everyone. I have been eying the Nokia Internet Tablets since the introduction of the 770 with a great deal of interest but the N810 (3rd iteration) is the first that got me to take the plunge. So let us take a look at what tipped me over the edge.
Overview:
If you didn't already know, this thing is about 25% bigger than the iphone, It has a higher resolution (800x480) transreflective LED b/l touch screen. It is kicking 400mhz with 256/128 on the ROM/RAM front and has two additional flash memory cards, one which is an integral card at 2gb and one miniSD slot. It has Bluetooth, wi-fi and a micro USB connection that can support USB host but is primarly for USB client (serves as a card reader for the internal and removable flash cards). It has a built in GPS receiver and slide out qwerty keyboard. Most importantly it is operating on Linux… a huge blessing AND curse but more on that later. The upshot is this device is very malleable to many purposes rather than custom delivered to one manufacturer controlled configuration. The N810 is truly a device that is defined by you… and not by NOKIA. If you are not going to take the time to extract what you want from the device then you are most likely going to be left a bit cold at the thought of plunking down the money for a pocket sized web browser/e-mail machine…. About the only things it really does good out of the box.
The Good:
The Size:
The slender design is just dead sexy… well if not sexy it is SOLID. I stayed away from the previous tablets due to their lack of keyboard and because they were falling to the wrong side of the dividing line between true pocket friendliness and joke inducing pocket transport (is that a tablet in your pants or…. I am sure you know the rest ). The 770 and 800 were both good devices but the lack of keyboard and pudgy (by mobile standards) size seemed to lead most to relegating them to the backpack when on the go. This dropped them more into comparisons with micro laptops rather than with PDA/smartphones. The 810's design focus on slender with a reduced bezel distilled the tablet line to focus entirely on its strongest feature, a mobile touch screen with real world resolution and plopped its size right into the upper bands of PDA's and smartphones. The limiting factor of most current smart phones/PDAs is and will continue to be QVGA… I am of the opinion the size is far too limiting in regards to what you can display on the screen at one time and is fatally flawed. In contrast, full screen mode on the Nokia internet tablets can display the most popular web page resolution without scrolling sideways (800 width) and you typically only have to scroll down and up (finger friendly). Even on 1024+ sites you tend to be able to see the primary content without side to side scrolling. With the N810's weight loss and slender form you now have this functionality in a true pocket sized package. I understand many bemoan the fact you have to slide out the keyboard for the direction pad… but not having become accustomed to the previous iterations I have to say finger dragging works just fine for me. I will grant it is wise to have a micro fiber cloth handy, but as a long time Windows Mobile smart phone user I am long since accustomed to dealing with the grime of heavy traffic finger screens. Perhaps one day this issue will be dealt with. But for now I will gladly take the smaller more pocket friendly size over a few mm extra here and there for more buttons on the closed up device.
Construction Quality:
Metal Metal and more Metal. This device feels like a solid little bar of aluminum in a good way. It has none of the fragile feel of many cell phones these days. It feels like it was designed to have a long useful and active life, not to be discarded lightly or left behind often. This has been a common thread with all of the tablet devices and I can't help but notice many are still are devoted to their 770 tablets. A wonderful change of pace from the typical chintzy feel of most high end mobile devices these days. Nokia and Apple understand the need for quality construction at least in some of their products.
OS:
The implementation of Linux is good and bad, here is the good. It gives you CHOICE. Nokia didn't lock the device down, they left it wide open for folks to develop and tinker with it to their hearts desire. Thus this is a solid base from which to do some serious mobile device tinkering. Included GPS gives you location information and the open source community gives you metric crap loads of code to sort through as a starting point to creating your ultimate on the go companion. They did an excellent job implementing an interface that is finger friendly though admittedly not quite up to snuff when compared to Apple's superb i-phone and touch interface. It is still light years ahead of windows mobile and the various flavors of symbian I have been exposed to over the years. Given the fact Apple devices are pretty much always in configuration lock down hell it really was never much of a choice for me. I like tinkering, and I crave the ability to make the device behave the way I want it to rather than ONLY the way the designers anticipated. One size fits none in my book. Apple does a great job creating targeted devices that perform admirably at what they decided the device would do… but I much prefer the Nokia approach to open provide an open ended device for the community to work on.
Connectivity:
Connectivity options that are to be found are well implemented and only have one glaring omission (Bluetooth PAN is not supported by default). The high mobility laptop makers should take note of the cell phone tethering wizard and follow suit. Wi-Fi is point and click though I have yet to attempt a WEP connection. USB host presents lots of great possibilities but they are largely thwarted by the micro USB connector… price to pay for the slenderness I suppose. Obviously a standard host port is not an option here (yes its THAT thin), though I think a mini b connector should have been chosen over the largely unknown micro. However, it DOES do host and there are solutions for it. Since it uses an up to date Linux kernel that means the sky is the limit if you are determined enough. On the software front the availability of Pidgin and Skype in full trim rather than mobile hacks makes for a very capable device when it comes to standard instant communication options. Gizmo is a bit to new to know how useful that will be and of course it includes support for standard SIP VOIP protocol so enter your account details and off you go as well. All in all very slick and tidy. Wrap it all up with a full fledged Xterm and Linux command line warriors ride off into the sunset with a very large grin firmly planted on their faces.
Available Software:
Open source repository based package installation software. While the standard Nokia repositories can be a bit flaky, there are several third party repositories with most of the same software and the new/beta/alpha developer community code. The package handling system keeps the pain of Linux software building/installation safely hidden from those not inclined to such things. Additionally it gives you access to programs that would cost you $$$ in typical mobile device software frameworks.
Browsing:
Firefox pared down to its essentials, AJAX works, Flash works. You can watch youtube and you are only limited by your connection speed. This is the best browsing you are going to get in a mobile device this side of an i-phone or UMPC running a full up desktop OS on the larger side.
The Bad
Cellular Voice/Data:
I hadn't had it for 5 minutes before I fell into the camp of followers who wish like hell this thing had a sim chip slot and GSM cellular radio. I had seen pictures of the size comparisons but it really hadn't sunk in just how close this thing is in size to my HTC slider phone. The screen difference is like night and day. Granted I think I understand the reluctance on Nokia's part to not include cell capability and It obviously isn't a deal breaker for me. Pairing with a phone isn't all bad but it is somewhat of a pain to need two devices. On the plus side, as long as Bluetooth networking and DUN are able to tie into a phone connection you can be agnostic about your carriers technology… also you don't need separate data plans if you didn't want to use the device as a phone. Personally I think they should develop a GSM world wide 3g version. Paired with a wristwatch status screen and Bluetooth headset this could be a killer device on your hip. This hardware with cellular capability is what Open Moko should be trying to get their hands on.
In the long run, Nokia is at the cross roads of smart phones and UMPC with these devices. The trend is most certainly towards mobile broadband connectivity of some sort in devices of this nature. I think the time is coming soon when there will need to be a cellular capable version of the tablet. For now I think not including it is the right choice. But CES just launched the attack of the MID's which are all firmly aiming at the Nokia Tablet and I-pod Touch successes and most of them are rolling in with Cellular options. Sooner or later the cell phone market is going to get much more friendly to mobile data access and having multiple plans, or multiple access per plan will not be such a painful consideration. I think that is going to be the glory day of the MID, Nokia Internet Tablet type device. We could be getting close to the Star Trek datapad here.
GPS:
Why in gods name did they not go with a sirfIII chipset? The cold start up time for the GPS receiver is old school… as in before mobile GPS really became very useful old school. Its reception works ok in the car on the open road, but GPS is most useful for something like city exploring… and in urban canyons it fails miserably. However, the bigger sin by far was not bundling a fully capable program with the built in receiver. The map application is mostly good only for showing that the receiver works than for any practical application of GPS. You have to fork over 100+ more dollars to get the real software. To add insult to injury the included maps take up most of the internal card space. The internal receiver, bad or not, with included functional software would have been acceptable. Crappy receiver with crippleware is just silly for the added cost to the device. There are uses for it as is… and the open source mapper provides much of what is missing provided you download the maps ahead of time or have an unlimited cellular data plan to access via your phone.
Look for the next generation to work on this… I have yet to see anyone with a posted online review/opinion of the device fail to hammer this particular issue. If GPS is what has you paying attention to on this device I would say wait or look elsewhere unless you have a serious need for a single device with some of its other capabilities.
Camera:
I suppose there are uses for a VGA webcam on a device like this but I just am not sure what. Gizmo is the only software out of the box that uses it and the user base isn't there. Not to mention video calling has been a technical reality for about 10 years now and widely practical for the last 5 and it just hasn't taken off. That is about all the camera would possibly be good for and it requires very good lighting for any kind of reasonable image. This is a feature check box… I think they would have done better to repurpose the space for the camera to minib USB or even upping back to full SD on the memory card. I could see a use for one of the higher resolution mobile cameras (2.0mp or better)… document 'scanning', business card pictures etc. It wouldn't surprise me to see the N-95 5mp camera show up on the next iteration. While I would still question just how useful it would be, I can see far more use at that point than with this current one.
PAN Connectivity:
Boo hiss on the lack of Bluetooth PAN support out of the box. One might interpret this as Nokia not wanting the device to work easily with Win Mo 6 phones seeing as they have largely moved to a DUN less setup by default and Nokia is sticking to DUN. Enabling PAN would make the device truly handset agnostic at the potential expense of Nokia phone sales. I would be one such to interpret it as so. There is NO reason why PAN should not have been included or added once it became obvious many phones were moving to incorporating it at the expense of DUN. As is, it takes a fairly involved hack to get it up and running, and the hack is something of a moving target as Nokia is releasing OS updates…. This is one of those things that should be getting easier, not more difficult. I like coding and have a fair amount of experience digging around Linux config files etc… it took me about 3 days to Google up the fix for the latest release of OS2008 which was different from the easy to find work around for the first iteration of OS2008, which were in turn different from the OS2007 and OS2006 hack details. Suffice to say if you have a PAN connection phone without DUN and root means the under soil portion of a plant to you then I would highly advise you steer clear if you are anticipating using the tablet tethered to a cell phone, unless you are also willing to switch to a phone with DUN profile
Storage:
My guess is Nokia was to far into the design by the time it became obvious that miniSD was pretty much dead on the vine with flash makers trending to Full SD or Micro. Had the trend to micro been more obvious at the time my guess is they would have kept the dual card setup of the 800 and just moved to micro. Ah how easy to say in hind sight. On the other hand it isn't like 10gb or even 14gb (new 12gb micros are coming) combined flash storage is bad. Personally I would prefer a battery covered micro paired with a full SD external. SD seems to be creeping into compact flash territory with some added peripherals in addition to memory cards being designed for the SD interface, add in the fact the max capacity/speed of SD is far superior. I see a very strong case for biting off the added size.
OS:
The customized mobile UI means that vast stretches of Linux open source software is off limits. This shows most acutely in the lack of thunderbird ports and or Open Office ports which present the most glaring gaps in functionality of the device that is currently available. To some extent such complaints are so much howling at the moon. After all there is only so much one can ask of 400mhz and 128mb of RAM so some of the lacking ports are more due to technological limitations than to desire for them. Pretty much anything else that is obvious has been ported already.
Office Software:
No Calendar, No Office Document viewing for either OO or MS Office? A mostly irrelevant contact and e-mail client? How could they let this device out the door without a FULL PIM suite? Sure there is a Garnet VM for Palm PDA folks. But the software was just not designed for this display and it shows. This is the single most glaring gap in the default device. Currently there is no solution either from Nokia or from the development community around the device. Linux has long been in search of a capable Exchange client and the search continues. I keep hoping someone will come out with a Client side for Google Apps that works standalone and syncs with the online apps. Google is making steady progress in the direction of challenging the MS stranglehold on professional PIM and office software usage.
Charging:
No charging over USB, standard Nokia charger needed. Old story with Nokia and it is still a problem. Just throwing in a USB to charger input cable would have been nice. They could have done two miniB USB connectors, both capable USB ports instead of a micro USB and single purpose power port. I really don't think anyone would have complained about the 1, maybe 2mm difference in the thickness that MAY have been required to do so.
Conclusion:
Well if you read this you might say… geee there seems to be a lot more bad about this device than good. In my mind if that is the way you read it then the device probably isn't for you. If you are of the mind… yeah but I can change a lot of those problems, or they might change in time anyway. Then I think you understand why I love this device. Software gripes can be addressed, The GPS is good enough despite the flawed execution, and there just isn't anything else in this hardware class that is as open ended a device. It has its flaws of that there is no doubt. But it has some serious strengths. For example I paired it with a stowaway Bluetooth keyboard and BAM I had a pretty capable little note taking setup that was much smaller and more flexible than even a micro laptop setup. There is software for pairing it with a bluetooth OBDII scanner for running diagnostics on your car ECU (model years 96 and beyond). Unlike smart phones you can comfortably read text without feeling like you are constantly scrolling/flipping the page etc… it fits a good amount of data on the screen at once at readable levels. It has a high quality build with plenty of thoughtful touches, buttons are not in high traffic hold points, built in kickstand with multiple notches for different angles, protected Micro card slot, USB port, and battery case release button. A screen that can still be viewed in full sunlight.
N810 vrs N800 decision points.
If you are one of the folks agonizing over a choice between the 800 and 810 the key considerations are size, GPS, storage, and of course the slide out keyboard. I feel very confident saying the 810 will go with you more places than the 800. The size reduction gets the tablet into upper end of the smart phone range as opposed to being well outside of it for the 800. Put another way the 800 will likely stay in your backpack where the 810 will go in your pocket. The keyboard is the second major factor. For me, this kind of device without a keyboard is a deal breaker and is probably the single largest factor in me deciding against the 770 and 800, but to each their own. Storage can be an issue, two SD slots provides a great deal more flexibility in storage and even periphial interfaces for the 800. The drawback is the bulk of the 800, your call. MicroSD into a mini adaptor now gives up to 12gb on a single chip. If I could choose one thing to change on the 810 I think it would be for a full size SD in place of the mini. Last and definitely least is in my opinion is the GPS. Yes it has it but it is horribly implemented and the decision to not put in a sirf III chipset or one of equivalent capability was moronic…. This is a last gen GPS without a good bundled software solution. For the added cost of the 810 over the 800 + the cost to upgrade the GPS software to practical status you could by a nice dedicated Garmin or TOM TOM unit. If integration and one device is a huge deal then look into the upcoming SD based sirf III chips for the n800, or go with a blue tooth receiver on either device (seriously)…. To give you an idea how much this receiver sucks, I will probably continue to use my sirf III Bluetooth receiver with my 810.
Unlike many I just do not think cost should be a major deciding factor, there are non-cost reasons to go with the 800 over the 810. And the reasons for choosing the 810 over the 800 have to do with specific features that are not shared… IE you can't really address them with the 800 so added cost just goes with the territory. For example do not cheat yourself out of a built in keyboard if you need it… it will just make you hate settling. If you need the slimmer size you will regret the larger clunk. The only case in which money should be the decider is if you just can't afford the 810 and the 800 will still meet your personal needs. If the answer for you is the 810 then I would just keep saving rather than settling on the 800.
N810 vrs i-pod touch/i-phone decision points.
If you only want web browsing and music/video content management then don't discount the Touch and/or i-phone. Key lack of the touch is no Bluetooth so no tethering for cellular data access, wifi only. Lack of a keyboard on either kills them for me. Touch screens are good at many things… typing isn't one of them. They also hold the edge in size, but at the cost of some VERY valuable pixels, granted there is a heaping serving of Apple mojo to stretch the pixels they do have to their absolute max with out of this world zoom technology.
Saturday, January 05, 2008
The New Hampshire Debates
The New Hampshire Debates
Here are my quick thoughts on the debates tonight.
Republicans:
Well I now understand why Huckabee is doing so well. The man has a solid solid presence and frankly I would say he had the best mix of 'in touch' and presidential demeanor. His religious bearing/history mixed with a fair amount of Arkansas dirty laundry concerns me. Romney is a tool... I just can't think of any other way to put it. He is the definition of a slick politician and everyone, I mean EVERYONE on the stage took pot shots at him the whole night. Ron Paul, how do you do him justice? These are the three I didn't know and Ron Paul is the one that still has me scratching my head. He is very feisty but the question remains, is he just feisty or is he foaming at the mouth mad bonkers and a stark raving mad economic ludite? I will have to look harder at him because he is damn smart, and his background says he isn't nutz. Part of me would like to see someone like him go in and take a sledgehammer to existing beauracracies, but part of me really cringes to think what a bull in china shop approach would do. All in all its proabbly an event you would rather read about in a history book than live through... but it might just be time for something like that. Guiliani, I said it before and I will say it again. He is following last years play book. He is trying to follow the established road to the presidency and has not seemed to fully grasp the fact that this round is going to be different. If the old playbook were working then Barak Obama would not have just taken a primary with a clear lead. Change is the word and he aint it. McCain is McCain. Venerable veteran who is getting better at the national stage every time he goes through this... if he had another 10 or so goes I think he might finally put it all together. I am starting to like him as a VP choice... I honestly think he would make a decent president but I just don't think he will ever put the votes together. Fred Thompson surprised me a bit, he was pretty solid but he has much the same problem Giliani has and the man just isn't 'with it'. He is smart, and he is Washington smart. But I don't think he is front man material.
Democrats:
Richardson is toast baring some miracle... perhaps a VP selection. Edwards is not quite there. he is passionate but he is no longer as carefree in his speaking as he once was. He kept going off on 'I don't want to leave anyone out or offend anyone' tangents during otherwise good responses. He clearly stepped into Obama's camp and sniped Clinton on multiple ocasions, perhaps an indication of things to come? Clinton did well. She definatly lost her temper a couple of times but I really don't think that is a bad thing. As long as she doesn't stick her foot in her mouth in the heat of passion I can think of worse things than a well spoken indignant candidate. She just doesn't have the 'slickness' of her Husband and if she keeps the lid on her temper to much it will just draw attention to how much less accomplished she is at the glass facade political game. She is going to have to fight hard to proove she is still an agent of change because one thing she isn't is 'fresh'. Sure she has the whole 'First Female for President' thing going on but hell... most folks have already cracked jokes about her already having served two terms as president. It is going to be interesting to see how well her experience card plays out. Obama is one smooth dude. He certainly doesn't come across as green. He has the kind of charisma political campaign managers have wet dreams about. He is starting to fill out the details of his positions and his ideas of how he wants to handle being president. But he needs to do more on this front. The cloudy poupular agent of change image will take him a bit farther yet but before long he has GOT to silence the growing volume of calls asking for more details on just how he is going to 'change' things.
All in all I think the Democrats have got to be happy that finally they seem to have the better crop of candidates. The Republicans have a good candidate... if you could combine all the strengths of the guys that were on stage. And apart from Ron Paul none of them had that air of something new going on. However despite the Romney attacks I think the air was FAR more charged with the dems on the stage. They have the ability to pull their party apart if they are not careful. And I don't mean pull apart as in be devisive... I mean a full on party split that could end us up with two candidates and perhaps a new party. If they do manage to split the party then the race dynamics are going to seriously favor the republican nominee unless there is a real cross party movement for someone. Strap yourselves in folks. This is going to be a long and rather interstin ride.
Here are my quick thoughts on the debates tonight.
Republicans:
Well I now understand why Huckabee is doing so well. The man has a solid solid presence and frankly I would say he had the best mix of 'in touch' and presidential demeanor. His religious bearing/history mixed with a fair amount of Arkansas dirty laundry concerns me. Romney is a tool... I just can't think of any other way to put it. He is the definition of a slick politician and everyone, I mean EVERYONE on the stage took pot shots at him the whole night. Ron Paul, how do you do him justice? These are the three I didn't know and Ron Paul is the one that still has me scratching my head. He is very feisty but the question remains, is he just feisty or is he foaming at the mouth mad bonkers and a stark raving mad economic ludite? I will have to look harder at him because he is damn smart, and his background says he isn't nutz. Part of me would like to see someone like him go in and take a sledgehammer to existing beauracracies, but part of me really cringes to think what a bull in china shop approach would do. All in all its proabbly an event you would rather read about in a history book than live through... but it might just be time for something like that. Guiliani, I said it before and I will say it again. He is following last years play book. He is trying to follow the established road to the presidency and has not seemed to fully grasp the fact that this round is going to be different. If the old playbook were working then Barak Obama would not have just taken a primary with a clear lead. Change is the word and he aint it. McCain is McCain. Venerable veteran who is getting better at the national stage every time he goes through this... if he had another 10 or so goes I think he might finally put it all together. I am starting to like him as a VP choice... I honestly think he would make a decent president but I just don't think he will ever put the votes together. Fred Thompson surprised me a bit, he was pretty solid but he has much the same problem Giliani has and the man just isn't 'with it'. He is smart, and he is Washington smart. But I don't think he is front man material.
Democrats:
Richardson is toast baring some miracle... perhaps a VP selection. Edwards is not quite there. he is passionate but he is no longer as carefree in his speaking as he once was. He kept going off on 'I don't want to leave anyone out or offend anyone' tangents during otherwise good responses. He clearly stepped into Obama's camp and sniped Clinton on multiple ocasions, perhaps an indication of things to come? Clinton did well. She definatly lost her temper a couple of times but I really don't think that is a bad thing. As long as she doesn't stick her foot in her mouth in the heat of passion I can think of worse things than a well spoken indignant candidate. She just doesn't have the 'slickness' of her Husband and if she keeps the lid on her temper to much it will just draw attention to how much less accomplished she is at the glass facade political game. She is going to have to fight hard to proove she is still an agent of change because one thing she isn't is 'fresh'. Sure she has the whole 'First Female for President' thing going on but hell... most folks have already cracked jokes about her already having served two terms as president. It is going to be interesting to see how well her experience card plays out. Obama is one smooth dude. He certainly doesn't come across as green. He has the kind of charisma political campaign managers have wet dreams about. He is starting to fill out the details of his positions and his ideas of how he wants to handle being president. But he needs to do more on this front. The cloudy poupular agent of change image will take him a bit farther yet but before long he has GOT to silence the growing volume of calls asking for more details on just how he is going to 'change' things.
All in all I think the Democrats have got to be happy that finally they seem to have the better crop of candidates. The Republicans have a good candidate... if you could combine all the strengths of the guys that were on stage. And apart from Ron Paul none of them had that air of something new going on. However despite the Romney attacks I think the air was FAR more charged with the dems on the stage. They have the ability to pull their party apart if they are not careful. And I don't mean pull apart as in be devisive... I mean a full on party split that could end us up with two candidates and perhaps a new party. If they do manage to split the party then the race dynamics are going to seriously favor the republican nominee unless there is a real cross party movement for someone. Strap yourselves in folks. This is going to be a long and rather interstin ride.
Wednesday, January 02, 2008
A look at “The Issues”. Part 1: Social Security
I went out and checked out the glassbooth website today. You know on the surface this seems like a cool concept. Fill out some Q and A to find out which presidential candidate best suits you. However on closer inspection I found a few things I really didn't like. One, it did not just show you the complete candidate comparison list by default. Two, it really didn't seem dead on regarding some of the things I was looking at. But that aside I think it is a fantastic website for taking a look at some collected information about the various candidate about 'THE ISSUES”.
Of course... this look mostly confirms my suspicions that sound bites just don't make for good issues discussion. For example lets take a look at the social security debate. Based on the quotes listed Hillary and Obama are pretty far apart on the issue of SS. They both think privatization is a bad idea but they are diametrically opposed on the issue of extending the cap on SS earnings. Hillary thinks it is silly to consider the additional tax without first dealing with fiscal responsibility and doesn't like the idea of increasing taxes (how very centrist of her). Obama looks at the new source of revenue as a means to attain fiscal responsibility. If you ask me they both are a bit off center on this one.
First I just have to pick on Hillary. Who says you have to increase taxes if you extend the cap? You could just as easily reduce the rates but extend the cap such that it was a relatively revenue neutral choice... one which in my mind would be VERY favorable. It would be a real drop in the middle class burden and significantly up the SS contribution made by the top 5% who account for more than 50% of the wealth in the nation. Bam Bam... you get raised taxes on the wealthy in a fair way (paying SS on all income and not just the first 90k or so) AND you drop the load on the middle/lower class. Seems like a no brainer to me if ever there was one. I mean come on... you get to hand pretty much anyone making less than 100 grand a 1-5% raise... if that ain't a vote getter I don't know what is.
As for Obama? Well his stance is classic “Counting chickens before they hatch”. I always disapprove of spending money before it comes in. The current available Federal Budget is in excess of a couple of Trillion dollars. Frankly, I feel if the Government can't be fiscally responsible with that then I don't think a new resource is going to help much. I think Hillary is right that we should sort out the current mess without asking folks for more money... however as I said above, you don't have to ask for more money (overall) when extending the SS cap.
Regardless of if the move was made to alleviate the SS rates, or just to extend through all earnings I think SS is long overdue for a serious overhaul. I think it is time that SS stopped being viewed as an individual bank in bank out program and instead be viewed as a general purpose program in which the healthy working population pays to support those that cannot. I don't think SS should have scaled payout rates according to pay in. Benefits should be based on cost of living and tied to inflation much the same way Obama suggests regarding the minimum wage. In fact I think the Minimum wage and SS benefits should be largely connected at the hip. After all, they are fundamentally about the same thing, how much it costs to live. I think folks should receive SS benefits and additional retirement income up to double the base living income (poverty line). IE their SS payouts begin to decrease once they get more money on their own than they do from SS alone until they receive no SS retirement benefits if their private sources are double the poverty income level.
Lets look at a simple practical examples. Lets say the SS payout is 100 dollars a year. With no private retirement income you get your 100 dollars a year of SS. If you have 50 dollars of private income you get 150 (SS + your income). If you get 100 in private you get 200. But if you get 150 in private income then you still only get 200 total. So once you get 200 in private income you receive no more SS benefits. The idea being that at that point you are privately receiving double the current poverty line in retirement income. I think the dead zone in there is more than worth the safety net you get in return.
I don't think this means you have to throw out the basic concept behind the privatization of SS accounts either. The Gore idea of a Locked box is comforting but in reality money locked away is generally money not doing what it is best at (making more money). If you are of a biblical bent then go check out the parable of the talents. I certainly agree that the government needs to stop using SS as a slush fund for government programs that realistically will never pay back what they take out. It needs to be a responsibly managed investment setup run strictly on conservative reliable return ventures. For example I talked a while back about how we could establish a pure scientific research facility whos technological achievements could be spun off on a for profit basis and it would take only a small portion of the SS fund to put it in action. Done properly it might manage to create a self sustaining system in which a large chunk of corporate profits ARE government profits used to sustain programs like SS without asking for tax money but instead by reaping the rewards of products in the market place utilizing government funded/developed technology.
At any rate the old saw goes “It takes money to make money” And it takes a lot of money to make a lot of money. Individual privatized accounts are not 'a lot of money' but there are few sums of money that match just the yearly income of SS... much less any kind of long term accrual in times when input outstrips payouts. The idea of individual money management is pretty absurd though attractive concept. Bet the whole pile and reap the benefits of large scale investments rather than throwing all the little peons to the wolves individually. Just whatever we do we have got to stop this raiding of the piggy bank with nothing but worthless agency iou's to show for it.
Ok I think I have ranted long enough....
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