iPad 2: Rumor Roundup and Thoughts

Hmmmm... perhaps I should change this blog title to “There aint no such thing as a free Apple”. Seeing as I have done so many apple reviews. Oh well.

Anyway the rumor mill is churning away on the next generation iPad and here are the basics.

• SD card slot. Opinion seems pretty solid that this would be as a ‘photo import’ or similar function ONLY device and not a true memory expansion option. Given the gnarly nature of app authentication and licensing nightmares around itunes media purchases I unfortunately think that is a very real possibility. Here is hoping it will allow you to have some expanded shared document repository functions for license free media/photos and files. It would be a very nice change from the current device. Hooking up to itunes to transfer files for the apps that support it is very annoying. A possible big change in Mobile me could be another way of easing the blow of not completely opening up the compact flash slot for use.
• Cameras on the front and back is pretty much a given at this point. SDK diving has revealed there is a good chance the rear job will be a lowly 1mp job for Augmented reality and barcode scanning type applications. The front camera will be a crappy vga deal for face time ala iPhone 4. Crappy may be harsh... so I will give it a quality vga deal (ie smooth etc...). I personally could care less about the front facing camera but it being there looks like the move is finally on to real video phoning being common. The back camera being the 1mp deal seems annoying... just like it was on the Touch. The camera cost is pretty small for those tiny little things and they already have massive production numbers with the iPhone 4 or even the older sensor in the 3Gs for something with a much better quality image. Including more spec will make it more useful... trust the folks out there to find the uses and give them the easy capacity for the couple of bucks the extra mega pixels would cost.
• A usb port has been rumored but largely dismissed. I unfortunately think the tea leaves read that way as well. The device can’t run the USB host spec without seriously hamstringing the battery and Apple has shown no sign of offering alternatives to the Apple dock for interfacing physically with their devices. Also SD cards are a better solution for flash memory additions due to being housed internaly which is the only viable host function an iPad USB port could serve. In other words SD is the ‘USB’ option. Apple has never been coy at utilizing less than standard ports. USB host interface will still be available through the dock connector as it is now. Any full implementation of USB host would rely on a powered dock apparatus.
• Bumped CPU and Graphics processing to dual core jobs. Both will be welcome though it would seem the Graphics bump will be tied to the big momma rumor of the Retina display for iPad. Without it there would be little need for such a serious jump in pixel pushing power. This is par for the course stuff on a refresh but along with the also expected RAM bump this could allow for some better multitasking in a future iOS release (iOS 5 I’m looking at YOU).
• Mini Display Port. Hmmmm... this is also somewhat tied to the Retina display discussion below. Suffice it to say if Retina iPad happens then this makes sense to me. It wouldn’t be that much of a stretch for it to run the 27” apple monitor at native resolution at that point... and with readily available adapters (just 30$ a pop) it would actually have to drive LESS pixels on almost any other display currently out there. Translation... graphics would no longer be a sticking point on an iPad serving as the basis of your ‘desktop’ system... and mobile multi core processors are rapidly becoming powerful enough to be viable main use options. Hell, many folks today run on 720p resolution desktops... which the iPad can push out externally now. Having a dedicated port instead of relying on the dock connection based adapters means two things. One, they need it to push higher resolutions than they can through the dock connector without modifying it and breaking compatibility with the existing dock periphials (if it can work then don’t expect a separate display port). Two, Apple may seriously be considering a non-tethered life for iPad... ie that it is a primary computing device in and of itself rather than an adjunct device to a ‘base’ computer running iTunes. I think the hardware will be ahead of the software on that front. Think in terms of the delayed release of 4.2 for iPad vrs when it was released. iOS 5 and an iTunes Cloud could promote the iPad to primary device status in the eyes of Apple. To make that jump it will need to run accessories like displays, and iOS will probably have to deign to work with a mouse/trackpad.
• Retina Display. See below... this one is to big for even one of my ‘bullets’

The Retina Display for the iPad is rumored to consist of a whopping 2048x1536 resolution 10inch display. While not quite as pixel dense as its iPhone 4 sibling it is still 260ish DPI which is more than double current desktop monitor averages. Many seem to think this unlikely because it is hard or to expensive to make the display.. they would be wrong. Making a 10inch 260dpi display is technically easier than making a 320dpi 4 inch (iPhone 4). Manufacturers didn’t stop increasing pixel densities due to technical holdups in making them. They stopped because of numerous factors that caused desktop display resolutions to hit an HD resolution wall in the market. The question here isn’t how is Apple going to manage to produce a mobile device with this level of resolution... the question is why current desktops/laptops don’t have even higher resolutions/DPI. I bought a 15” laptop with a screen resolution of 1920x1200 more than 4 years ago. It was the absolute bleeding edge of semi portable laptop resolution at the time and it was about a year behind wide spread availability of that resolution on desktops. That marked the start of a stagnation of computer resolutions... largely because bigger screens were not really an option and increasing resolution without increasing physical dimensions means higher DPI which broke, and still breaks, the usability of a huge amount of desktop software and even the Operating Systems. A point driven home to me by some problems I had with that same laptop (its display had something like 140dpi). To my knowledge 1920x1200 is still the maximum resolution available for a laptop today and I don’t think computer monitor resolutions have EVER remained this static for this long since the birth if GUI based personal desktop. I saw several stories about 1 inch HD screens a couple of years ago (camcorder eye piece monitors). That is almost 2000 DPI. 300 DPI is NOT a problem. The graphics for 300 DPI are and Apple is in a position to make the transition to higher DPI levels for iOS devices and have already started with iPhone 4.

You may be asking what the big deal is with 300 DPI. The answer is as simple as comparing a printout of a sheet of text with the same text on your screen. Standard printout quality is 300 DPI. It has remained there despite the technical ability to produce thousands of DPI (used sometimes in high end graphics printing). Apple’s marketing for the Retina display is based on it. Its what you can easily distinguish at typical distances for using printouts. Smaller elements (higher DPI) would look the same. It represents the highest quality display level that will be unquestionably appreciated by the masses. Much higher and the only folks that can tell much (if any) difference are those with either super vision, or those who just always think more is better no matter what they can actually see/distinguish. Either is a niche market. 300dpi is the mass market display resolution maximum barring some means of improving average human vision.

The remaining questions are these. One, does Apple think increased DPI is a marketable feature that will distinguish their devices? Retina display is an Apple marketing term and is one of the leading features touted for the iPhone 4. Case closed, lets move on. I honestly wouldn’t be surprised to see a ‘retina display’ macbook/pro, imac etc... in the not to distant future.

Two, Can Apple afford to bootstrap a new production line for a massed produced screen that has currently only been demonstrated? Yes, they have one of the largest reserves of capital of any company and the money needed to do this does not represent a significant proportion of those reserves (say 2-5 billion out of hundreds in the bank). They even have current experience pushing super high volume of high DPI screens with the iPhone 4... scaling to a 10” screen is not a problem and with the current success of the iPad I think not much of a risk either. Next up, 30 inch screens? Now THAT would be a risk... for now.

Can Jobs and Co convince the board to take a multibillion dollar leap? Yes, the iMax, iPod, iPhone and iPad have proved that over and over again.

This leaves the final and critical question. Was Jobs/Apple confident enough to bankroll a completely new line like this for the brand new tablet market in time for an April ’11 release? iPad was enough of a gamble that by the time the returns were in and they knew for certain how big it was may have been to late for an April ’11 release of the next device with the new screen. In any case I have seen enough to firmly believe it is now just a question of iPad 2 or iPad 3 that comes with a ‘retina’ display.

My take? 15 months is forever in the tech world and from now that is the time it would take to get to an April ’12 device. 15 months ago the iPad didn’t exist and tablets where largely thought to be crazy. Now 17million iPads have been sold to the tune of Billions and dozens of competitors are racing tablet devices to market and corporate environments are sucking them up in almost unprecedented fashion. In 15 months time the iPad could be caught and slaughtered by cheaper super powered android units. It is time to double down for Apple and a 15 month delay for such a stand out feature may miss the boat in a market they created. So, I think the Retina display makes it this round. Possibly with a delayed release. An odd possibility, but not unprecedented for Apple, may be that this becomes a model difference (lower and higher resolution iPads). This is pretty similar to 3gs and iPhone 4s currently. This may also allow a bit higher (or stagnate) price point for the top tier devices while dropping the older generation device down to compete with all the ‘bandwagon’ competitors now rushing to the bottom.

If nothing else I hope this breaks the dam on display DPI being stuck around 100. 300dpi print quality screens are LONG over due. My seriously long range prediction (at least in tech terms) at this point is that iOS 5 and OS XI seriously change how graphics work so that instead of pixels, graphics are based around DPI leading to much easier scaling of various software across different devices with various screen technologies.... it might even be that iOS 5 and OS XI are one and the same literally rather than just very close siblings like 4 and X. If iPad 2 ships with a mini Display port I view it as a sign of this being a real possibility. This also has implications for the iPhone if it continues to match or even exceed iPad specs on the processing side (iPhone 4 currently outstrips iPad in pretty much every way). As that would mean anything an iPad could do... an iPhone could do as well. Food for thought.