Prognostication Roundup, Amazon Kindle announcement, and iPhone 5 thoughts

In February 2010 I wrote the following regarding the then freshly revealed first generation iPad:

Make no mistake this is typical Apple early adopter pricing (read nose bleed high). In the long run this level of pricing may well continue to define the upper end. But based on these numbers I expect to see mobile tablets in the $100-300 range with more capability than the initial iPad inside of 2 years. E-ink is either going to step up its game (color, refresh rates), go sub $100 (sub $50?) or disappear all together. If E-ink gets to color refresh rates on par with LCD technology and remains lower power it will fold into this market quickly.

Prior to the iPad 2 release I also speculated about Retina displays

• iPad 2 would have Retina… OR
• iPad 3 would have Retina
• iPad 3 would release mid cycle

Today, September 27th 2011 about 19 months later Amazon just announced a new Kindle for $79. Not an old version made cheaper. An announced new Kindle with new higher quality E-ink display for $79. They also announced the Fire. A 7 inch color LCD device.

I’m a Genius:

• Sub 100 dollar e-ink reader in <24 months ? Check. The newly announced entry level Kindle is $79
  • Of special note, this is not a reduced cost older model but a new model with improved screen.

• E-reader move to LCD technology in <24 months ? Check (The color Nook from B&N was first a couple months back)
  • A major fallout of the move of printed material to electronics is much more direct competition with other kinds of media. I adopted a Kindle 2 for my reading only to supplant it with the iPad not because it was a better reading experience… but because the iPad offered me so much more along with a ‘good enough’ reading experience.

I’m a Schmuck:

• Tablet with better specs than original iPad for <=$300 in <24 months? Swing and a miss…. so far. 4 months to go ☺
  • Motorola Xoom has the specs (heck it beats the iPad2 specs) but the price is still north of 400 even with incentives
  • Kindle Fire and a few others have the price but not the specs
  • Double or nothing it happens < 36 months?
• iPad2 with Retina? Negatory Nostrodumus, try again
• iPad 2s/3 mid cycle release ? barring a surprise release as part of the october 4th event shockingly wrong again.

Still Waiting:

• iPad 3 with Retina ? Specs for the next iPad are still the stuff of much speculation. There is some solidifying evidence that Apple is preparing to make a tablet sized display in Retina type DPI ranges. Outlook favorable.
• Tablets a default part of the computing landscape in <=5 years? Not even 2 years in and looking good
  • Could argue we are already there.
    • Industry Tech discussion regarding tablets has gone from ‘why’ to ‘whats next’.
    • There does not seem to be any real concern about the ‘bubble bursting’ though the fact nobody can crack Apples strangle hold on the market still has a few thinking it is all a ‘distortion field’ driven market.
  • Next generation of devices is crucial to this one becoming a slam dunk and I really think a serious competitor to Apple needs to emerge to really drive this one home inside of 5 years from the release of the original iPad

Amazon made some pretty big waves a couple of days ago with its new Kindle Lineup

• Base kindle with new higher contrast e-ink perl display, wifi only for $79 bucks.
  • 4th generation device now in a pretty strong market and seriously cracking the $100 barrier vs. the typical 99.99 nonsense I think drives them even farther. 2012 will not be good to the printed book industry.
• Two new touch driven e-ink devices at only slightly higher pricing…
  • 99$, wifi only? (add supported?)
  • 149$ no adds and 3g (no adds)
• Gives a nice range of selection for the various e-bookworms to choose from.
• Highly anticipated color wifi android tablet reader for $200
  • Very aggressive pricing for a decent tablet spec.
    • Same screen technology and capacitive touch as iPad but smaller form factor and far fewer widgets (no microphone, no camera, no bluetooth etc…).
  • Amazon market for kindle material and Amazon Application market for Android represent the only real alternative challenging the iTunes/App store juggernaut from Cupertino.
  • Silk browser is creating some serious buzz and looks to be a truly useful feature

Amazon is fighting guerrilla warfare against Apple here. Head on point to point there is almost no comparison. But the e-ink devices excel at what they do and the launch of an LCD color tablet offers kindle loyalists the chance to expand within Amazon’s lineup and gives Apple escapists a real option in the tablet world with app and content support nobody else is really succeeding in putting together despite the fact android devices are hugely popular. Add in the truly tempting price point compared to even bottom bracket iPads and you have a very compelling device. This is going to be interesting.

iPhones next incarnation is finally officially being revealed on October 4th… quick thoughts.

• I am getting one regardless of the details. Will be the first Apple Device Pre-order for me in fact.
  
  
  
  • A lot of this is due to the absolute dominance of the app store and my current level of investment in apps
  
  
  • Also because I am that happy with my iPhone experience to date (primarily 3Gs but now also have a 4 for work)
  
  
  • Normally I want hands on experience before buying a device like this but the basics of the apple phone ergonomics are pretty well established. Apple would have to do something very unexpected in the reveal on the 4th to make me hesitate on a pre-order.
  
  
  
  


• Guesses that I haven’t seen on other sites… only have one really
  
  
  
  • Thunderbolt supported via 30pin dock connector which allows for super fast syncing with thunderbolt equipped machines running iTunes
    
    
    
    • Apples patent for adding thunderbolt to their 30 pin connector was a minor story several months back
    
    
    • Apple is strongly embracing thunderbolt… all Macs now have a port and the displays now connect via thunderbolt
    
    
    • I strongly believe an eventual endgame for iPad/iPhone will be the ability to drive a Cinema display (or two?) as part of a ‘desktop’ mode of operation. I see this as a long term effort by Apple to erase the basic concept that there must be a distinction between an ‘OS’ and a ‘Mobile OS’. There will just be an ‘OS’. The consumer then only has to decide on how much computing power they really need. ‘Mobile’ processors are rapidly reaching performance levels that could handle full fledged computing tasks with no apologies for the vast majority of users. If the idea of an OS becomes singular rather than context driven then processors will follow suit and the same technology will drive everything from your phone to a server cluster.
    
    
    
    
  
  
  • Ability to drive full HD on external monitors
    
    
    
    • Greater than HD would be very interesting as I mention above but I think its too soon for that. Would be an awesome ‘one more thing’ though.
    
    
    • Not much of a guess as the iPad2 can already do this and the iPhone 5 will likely have more CPU horsepower and RAM under the hood along with a graphics processor at least as powerful if not a step ahead.