Thoughts: Apple Spring Forward Keynote - iWatch and Macbook

So Apple did its big spring announcement and the short version is....

Pricing and final features of the Apple Watch - no real surprises, if you liked it carry on

Brand new MacBook design - It is exciting like the Ford Thunderbird remake

and the really big news, Research kit.... no seriously. But back to that in a bit, got to save the best for last after all :-)  

Apple Watch:

First lets talk price vs function:

$350 - $10,000+ pricing. Difference in function? Zip. The utilitarian sport aluminum $350 apple watch will do everything the 18kt gold Apple Watch Edition will do. The only functional difference is style and materials. The truly valuable (from a functional standpoint) difference in watch face of Sapphire (also avaialble starting at $549) seems the more worthy of the two. Gold vrs Aluminum.... that has me scratching my head. Granted I am not a watch person so I place almost no value in precious metals for the sake of precious metals. I was kind of surprised the edition really didn't have more to distinguish itself. In this I grant creedence to the folks saying Apple is to some extent going after the "Vertu" crowd. For those not familiar Vertu has made a business of selling ho humm android phones in fancy casings of precious metals and jewels. However, I would suggest it is more accurate to say that Apple is at risk of only attracting the Vertu crowd rather than who they really desire.... but who is that? Vertu is about folks that place form over function. They do not CARE the Vertu phone does nothing new only that it is more unique and 'stylish'. This is a bit different crowd than you see buying 10k watches where regardless of how valuable you view hand crafted movements and polished micro gearing etc... there is a functional difference you get in the higher end mechanical movement watch world vrs the lower end mechanical movement watch world. Really, stereotypes of silver spoon folks with inherited fortunes and silly sports/pop/lottery winners aside, folks with money generally do not get that money by being stupid with money. Hence my surprise that Apple didn't do a bit more on separating the functionality. This would seem to leave naked snob/peer pressure as what will drive folks to go for the Edition over the more plebeian offerings. On the other hand, separating the rich from the poor functionality wise would cause some development nightmares. The numbers that make the Apple ecosystem so attractive to develop for are kind of the antithesis of a elite device owned by only a select few. 

Now lets talk style vrs. function:

Like it or not, understand it or not, agree with it or not, from a social standpoint there are circles in which someone would not be caught dead wearing a 'cheap' or 'common' watch no matter how utilitarian. It would be akin to things like a clip on tie, tennis shoes under a suit, gaudy costume jewelry in inappropriate situations  etc... they are signs of not belonging, of immaturity etc... and in such cases it would be better to go with no watch at all IF social opinions of you in that peer group is something which concerns you. One can argue all day and night for or against the merits of such a circle with such values but they will not make them go away. In this world one gets the sense that cellphones have invaded those environs somewhat in spite of their everyman nature due to their indispensable nature. In this context it would seem that companies like Vertu have exploited a void in this world unfilled by smart phone makers to sheath that utility inside something more aesthetically pleasing (talking theory more than the actual success here... but they are still in business...). Yet to me (someone who generally cares not about these things) the difference between a phone and a watch is simple. One you wear for the world to see whether or not it is in use. The other they only see when in use. As a result one is a fashion item that is subject to all that goes with that. The other is not. I think Apple's bet is Vertu is gilding the lily.... or perhaps more accurately... putting lipstick on a pig when they try and turn a purely utilitarian and largely hidden item like a phone into a fashion item. By comparison, it could be argued that the Apple Watch Edition is about having a necessary fashion IQ for an item that requires it in order to be used by a VERY desirable class of customer. Translation: The iPhone is used across all social strata without stigma BECAUSE it is not generally viewed as an item of fashion. An Apple watch attempting to penetrate in the same manner as the phone across all strata of society is fighting an uphill battle if it does not make an attempt to make a version that wouldn't be viewed the same as a 'clip on tie' at a black tie gala event. Even a bad silk tie with a garish pattern and poorly tied is better than a polyester clip on in this sense. In a way if all Apple manages to do is start a legitimate conversation (heck make that argument) in this world as opposed to being outright dismissed they win. Why? Because if they can get their foot in the door on the fashion front I think the obvious utility may carry them through to true success in making a successful high end fashion luxury item. I think their chances of success are better than 50\50. 

Now lets talk value:

Should you plunk down a minimum $350 for an iPhone accessory? Most Android wear devices and the Pebble are cheaper than this and in about 1.5 years have not managed to exactly set the world on fire. Will the Apple Watch be different? My bet is yes and Android wear is actually my answer as to why. Despite its awkward ways, an Android wear watch is useful. Surprisingly so. If an Apple Watch is only as good as the best Android wear device it will be far more successful than any single Android wear device to date, and most likely all of them combined along with Pebble to boot. That is to say I think Apple clears 2 million devices (the current combined estimate of those two worlds) before 2016 hits. Probably before 2nd quarter is over to be honest. Why? Here are the keys as I see them.

• Even with slower iOS 8 adoption Apple has a much more homogenous audience than Android and they are proven higher spenders. 
• This all but assures higher adoption rates and better app eco system development. Since this can add to existing apps/eco systems there are already a myriad of ways for folks to be seduced into wrist wrapped silicon.  
• Glance notifications on your wrist are better than you think if you have not yet experienced them.
• Silent wrist notifications are better than vibrating phones on desks or even in pockets in many cases. 
• Even if the phone in your pocket is silent, your rustling and moving to dig it out is not.
• Glancing at your wrist has a much higher social acceptance than glancing at your phone. 
• It is possible this will erode over time if folks start associating wrist glancing with phone glancing but if that happens it will only be because it has become common enough that someone looking at their wrist is no longer associated with looking at a watch 'first'. Trust me, Apple would be thrilled if this happened.  
• Apple Pay biometrically authenticated on your wrist is the potential killer feature.
• I see this as a way to finally kill the password. If this works and folks trust this feature with their bank account then I suspect this could be a link to a drastic reduction in password entry needs. 
• Design may prove much more stable than folks seem to think. Mass discussion seems to all assume this device will be on a phone/tablet type refresh cycle and that is probably not the way it will go
• The horsepower is on the phone. The watch just needs to be able to display stuff snappily and by all appearances it is on par with current phone level responsiveness and the last generation or two of phones really have hit the point of diminishing returns on speeding up the interface.  

The reasons to not get one? 

• It is possible it won't take off. If the app ecosystem development does not follow\scale at a similar rate to those of iPhone and iPad it will be a good indicator of whether or not this thing has legs. 
• First generation designs from Apple have a tendency to be rougher than they look so if you can hold off from having the latest thing I'd let this get out into the wild for a month or three and see if any ugly unforeseen design flaws raise their heads. 
• Apple only seems disappointed in two things and combined I think these two things will drive Apple watch early adopters to eventually want to get a new version much earlier than will be the case down the road (v2-v4 at a guess). But I do not expect this to be on a similar pace as phones.
• Battery life. Expect Apple to figure out how to drastically improve this if the watch takes off. They seem to be on the longer end of all the smart watches (other than Pebble) and the reviews will tell us if this is true or not. They have got to be betting the utility makes it worth dealing with charging. My experience with Android wear says it can make it worth dealing with.... but only just. I think long term a week is the territory a smart watch needs to get to, if not a month. 
• Sensors. Several credible stories seem to prove out that Apple had to drastically scale back their plans on the sensor front as they proved tougher nuts to crack than expected. Those same sources are all also saying they didn't give up.

Bottom line? 

If you are tired of the smartphone hunch and on a scale of thumb warrior and read only you slot more towards the read only end then the Apple Watch (or Android Wear/Pebble) are worth your attention and quite possibly your money. If you have callouses on your thumbs from your furious texting despite the oily glossy smooth touch screen of current phones I am not sure you will get much benefit unless you are going to talk to your watch as your phone will be out most of the time anyway.

As for me, its the first time I have been interested in personally buying a watch for any reason since I got my first smart phone. Apple Sport Space Grey (or maybe Watch) with a Milanese loop please.... and yes, from the Apple page it seems the sport/Milanese loop combination is possible. And it would be cheaper than an Apple Watch with a Milanese loop. If I go for the watch it will be for the Sapphire and if I think it has a legitimate chance of being a 5 year device. Otherwise I will wait.

Macbook Revamp:

I am really excited about this design. But unfortunately I think I am more excited about what it means for the Pro updates down the road than I am for this particular device. I smell the original Macbook Air part II. Why? Looks like you can't go to 16GB of RAM on the configuration. Combine that with the current lackluster M core chip performance folks have been seeing in all the other supper thin and lights popping out and I think 'tolerable' will be the best outcome on the performance front once these hit reviewers hands (I'll be happy if they prove me wrong mind you...). For those that want silent and portable it will be enough and it should be a success. I tend to require more oomph and it looks like that is not ready for prime time with a serious chip. The Air's have more power than this guy.... quite a bit more power.

The single USB C port thing is I think going to cause more wailing and gnashing of teeth than it merits. But, that said, until the world catches up a bit to the connector less laptop method of operating it is going to be a bit painful on the early adopter front. Be very sure before buying this thing that it will fit your work flow needs.

Those misgivings aside everything else looked stellar. The keyboard I look forward to trying. The trackpad seems a good update and the 30% reduction on the screen power consumption is staggering. All metal body, no internal moving parts, solid keys, more solid track pad. If they got the design nailed this thing could be a very long lived device. Hence my real worry about the somewhat under powered nature of the CPU/RAM options. They may have sacrificed to much to get rid of the fan/vents. 

Why does this make me salivate for the MacBook Pro updates? Take the current design that gets 9 hours and add a 30% reduction in screen power needs and you probably wind up with 10 - 11 hours of battery life with no other changes. Shrink the logic board in a similar fashion and even if you still need an active cooling solution for the higher horse power it still fits in a smaller package. Bump up the battery capacity using that terracing technique at the same time you drop the logic board and display power\space usage and you may hit 15+ hours of real usage on a serious laptop. Put USB C ports on both sides of the chassis and you can now plug power in from either end YES. No more being just the width of your computer away from the nearest power source (happens to me all the time for some reason). I do give a frowny face for loosing mag-safe power connection. I'll get over if if a future Pro has USB C that can power the laptop from either side of the device.

I would like to see a fully tarted up 15" along these lines at WWDC or maybe in the fall (new display tech, new keyboard, new terraced all metal unibody with form fitting batteries, shrunken logic board even if it retains active cooling). But it is more likely it will get bumped more along the lines of the way the 13" got bumped (Flash speed bump, force trackpad). Does it get USB C though? That seems to be the way Apple thinks things are going to go. But I was kind of surprised to not see a USB C on the 13" RMBP refresh. Perhaps they are hedging their bets a bit here? Or just that they admit the professional world adoption of USB c is likely going to lag behind the more general consumer market. Who knows. 

Research kit:

Everyone is talking about the Watch and Macbook announcements. But I have seen almost nobody talk about Research kit. Folks.... that is a bonefied potential game changer in the world of medical research. And, that is a big deal. Even if they do not significantly increase participation levels and they only manage to significantly increase the amount and quality of data points per participant it will represent a significant improvement. If they successfully change the scale (they are talking potentially going from 10's - 100's to MILLIONS) at which folks participate AND increase the amount and quality of data capture it could lead to major increases in both the speed and accuracy of results from medical studies. This is a foundation they are laying and it seems to align nicely with the idea that future versions of the Apple watch will introduce major advancements in health related sensors. Future headline prediction "Many decry the supposed frivolousness and waste of insurance companies now paying for Dr. proscribed Apple watches for medical monitoring". You heard it here first.