The ACA or (Affordable Care Act) is the law of the land. It cannot be repealed without congressional action. It cannot be repealed by executive fiat. Can they work together to kill it? Yep. But... as in most things it just isn't that simple. Lets take a look.
The president CAN stymie key elements of implementation of the legislation through control of the executive branch and related bureaucracies. Some of this can be expected I imagine. Our current president has done this by delaying some key provisions of the administrations signature act. So just the fact this happens is not cause for undue alarm... there could be legitimate reasons for doing this. The legitimacy of those actions is not subject to whether or not you agree with them.... well not of anyone likely to read these words. New leadership WILL make new compromises. That is inevitable. Many have questioned the current administrations choices, and many will question the next. But simply making different choices is not in and of itself malicious. The proof will be in the pudding on any decisions made.
The thing is to focus on the leaderships decision only is to ignore the important part here. For the leader of the executive branch to do this legitimately or capriciously comes at a cost if it creates real problems with real peoples health care. Make good choices reap the rewards. Make bad choices and reap the 'rewards'. The checks and balances of our system are not just at the institutional level of the branches of Government. The republicans did not waltz their way into the executive branch leadership. They squeaked in with only the 5th election in our history that had a split outcome between the popular vote and the electoral vote. Even if the current administration does not feel overly tied to the Republican party there is still a massive incentive to not upset the apple cart and risk a voter revolt against them at the mid term elections in two years handing them a hostile house, and possibly a hostile Senate.
You may have noticed that political attacks against the ACA are not targeted at the people covered, but most are (correctly) targeted at the ballooning costs of that coverage. A likely tact going forward are decisions targeted at changing those ballooning costs. Does that really sound so bad? Done right it will be a good thing. Also, the rhetoric of the campaign trail is far removed from 'official' action. It is not political candidate flakiness that causes this. Politicians have an impossible task of tailoring a message that will cut through the noise to reach voters... and the methods of doing so are by and large devoid of the nuance of reality. The issues of ACA are Rube Goldbergian in nature and you can spend years trying to understand all of the inter related issues of government surrounding the passage of any kind of legislation of its nature.... and still not understand it all. A 30 second sound bite position it is not when it comes to the actual nitty gritty dirty details of actually trying to enact it, repair it, or repeal it. Contrary to popular belief legislators do not spend all day in front of the cameras. They spend the majority of their time working on the logistical agreement details of these insanely complex pieces of legislation and the down and dirty details tend to be worked by an army of staffers.
But the republican party holds both houses of congress and the white house? Can't they do ANYTHING they want?
To a certain extent yes. In theory there is a great deal they can do that is subject only to a judicial review (more on that topic to come in future posts). Basically any act that can pass short of super majority requirements. But.... make that BUT, any legislation they pass purely on the back of their legislative majorities without fear of veto from the executive runs afoul of the same problem. They have been complaining about the ACA and fighting in various ways to either cut it or alter it. But they have not owned it. Like it or not, as law of the land, it has now gotten established and to simply yank it out of the books and revert back would probably be political suicide, result in chaos in the health care market, and most likely toss another log on the fire of civil unrest. Also... while it is presently far more likely than it has been during just about any time in our history for all legislative members to vote in party lockstep.... it does require that to actually happen. Current members of the party in more moderate districts will as always have to consider whether not voting for legislation that could swing their electorate will allow them to vote in favor purely on a party line basis. I do not envy these members but I also feel zero pity for them. It is their job. They have to balance party leadership and their voters. One of those is a constitutional duty. The other is tradition. If you do not know which is which you should brush up on your civics knowledge. I personally think a growing abdication of that duty to their electorate (even for extremely good causes) is part of the current problem we are facing. Governments job is to be a parent for the electorate and to make decisions best for all of us in theory. In practice it is a complicated and painful process to determine what exactly that path is.
The reality (at least as I see it in all my sophomoric "wisdom") is that the republican party is going to try and find a way to disassociate the whole package of US federal government health care legislation from its current democratic party signature status. In short they do not want the ACA to become enshrined as did acts like the "new deal" or the "great society" without their party being able to claim ownership or at least a major role. Right now I imagine the scheming is to ultimately be seen as the 'Savior' of universal health care in the US. The current administration rightfully or wrongfully has the image of having strong armed this legislation through and while they are taking plenty of flack for the problems, I think it is safe to say at this point the positives of the ACA are far out weighing the negatives. In other words... it is a good problem for the democrats to have. For the republican party to accomplish this they have to make changes in such a way that there is a clear net benefit to the MILLIONS impacted by their actions that they can lay claim to. As news stories have begun reporting... that means there seem to be a few 'untouchables' emerging in the new round of DC tango over health care legislation. The protection for those with prior conditions to not be denied coverage or to face sky high premiums targeted at them looks like it is untouchable. The allowance of children to remain on their parents policies up to the age of 26 is another one. These are some pretty important elements of ACA. For me personally the change regarding what insurance companies were allowed to do regarding prior existing conditions was worth quite a bit of the pain and suffering of the whole thing. Why congress didn't just pass that as stand alone legislation YEARS ago is something that never ceases to baffle me. Really, after those two what you are looking at remaining are the mandates for citizens to have coverage at a minimum defined level, Mandate for more employers to offer it to all employees at a minimum defined level, and the markets for non employer based plans.
So what is most likely about to happen is that the ACA is dead.... but long live the ACA. If you are not familiar with that particular saying as regards the transition of power of monarchs (the king is dead, long live the king). It means it will change, but there will be something doing the same job in its place. Here is hoping those changes will be for the better.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Recent Tech Announcement Roundup - Microsoft Surface Studio, Macbook Pro
Last week saw a couple of major product announcements from the Mac vs PC folks. The funny thing is the roles were reversed. Apple had an interesting but ultimately blah announcement with their new Macbook Pros while Microsoft wowed with the new Surface Studio all in one. Both have their issues that I am going to break my usual rule of not reviewing something I have not personally used.
What got announced?
Microsoft launched their Surface Studio all in one PC. Big desktop screen all in one computer ala an iMac. But the party trick is the hinge of the monitor allows the screen to tilt down to a 20 degree angled 'drafting' mode. Because that screen is multi touch capable and compatible with their existing Surface Pen. It also comes with a puck that allows you to have a dial. The puck can sit on the desktop and be used to scroll through options/settings. And when in drafting mode it can actually rest on the surface studio screen and be detected, which allows it to produce graphics along its base to make it a dynamic dial. IE select from a color wheel by turning and the colors shift around on the screen based on you physically twisting the puck dial. This really does look useful and having done a fair amount of digital art work the thing had me salivating once I saw it tilted down and being able to use it as a drafting table. Something old is new again, in a very exciting way.
Apple launched their long overdue Macbook Pro updates and they came with a new 'Touch bar". Basically take the function keys up at the top of your keyboard that a large majority of users do not fully utilize and replace it with an OLED touch screen. This allows you to present dynamic touch based keys and interface items that change based on your current context. Similar to the puck concept for the surface pro you can down make physical touch based sliders as a part of your keyboard for scrolling through option settings etc... Pick through emoji. Scrub through charts/pictures etc... and even have touch screen function keys... namely an 'esc' key which the intertubes blew up over the loss of once the tech leaked. The end result is in theory a seamless addition of touch interface items without requiring the user to lift their hands from the keyboard. Of course, in addition to this they made everything smaller, lighter, more powerful and lasts longer. Oh yeah... and it has touch ID plumbed in.
So first off... I cannot speak to the performance of either. What interests me is Apple finally committing to a touch interface on the Macbook other than the track pad and Microsoft looking to perhaps have figured out how to move touch successfully onto a full desktop sized screen without the dreaded numb arms of death of holding your hands out in front of you at a computer. So in a way both of these product announcements represented Apple and Microsofts take on the way touch should be incorporated into the more traditional computer form factors.
This all goes back to something Steve Jobs (among others) pointed out as something users did not want based on testing. Namely, that interacting with a vertical screen in front of you for any length of time is not a good idea. My questions is did they ever actually consider changing the method by which you interact with your computer screen. Meaning move the screen so it isn't a vertical plane that you are interacting with raised hands? The answer seems to be yes. Just that Apple thought the answer to how to accomplish that was to make the screen as small and light as possible so that you used it in new ways/places. Hence the iPad and their continued refusal to incorporate touch into their traditional computing hardware. On the other hand, the PC world took the opening of large scale capacitive touch and moved it onto laptops where you still traditionally have a vertical screen or in many cases these days, a convertible hinge that alows you to sorta use a laptop like a big clunky tablet. The surface studio though makes a new assumption. That there is a better way to interact with your PC than sitting at a desk interacting with a vertical screen. The tilt down to 'draft table' mode is genius. It is the most 'Apple' thing I have seen since the original iPad announcement and it leverages a fairly common creative setup (standing at or on a stool leaning over at a drafting desk). Funny that it came from Microsoft. But not really surprising. Risk taking is typically something left for those looking to get to the top, rarely by those comfortably at the top. And in computer hardware right now Apple is the undisputed king and has been for 5+ years or so now.
What do I not like?
Surface Studio:
I have to agree with Norman Chan of tested.com who pointed out the Surface Studio concept is less attractive as an expensive all in one with questionable specs (for the cost mind you) than it would be as an expensive stand alone monitor solution that you could pair with any level desktop. The all in one internals on the computing side will get quickly dated... in fact considering it is launching with last generation mobile Nvidia graphics I think it is in fact launching out dated. And this is EXPENSIVE. It also lacks the higher bandwidth newer ports (thunderbolt/USB C) which means you can't drive that gorgeous display from a future system or even add a credible external graphics processing card. Hopefully MS figures this out either in the next generation by adding the necessary future proofing capabilities and or actually releasing this as a stand along monitor solution and not just as an all in one.
MacBook Pro:
For the Macbook Pro. I like the concept but I sense a firewire type debacle in the long run. Unless the notion of a touch bar interface gains wide acceptance the Mac OS laptop world is a niche market that will ultimately limit its adoption by the wider development community. It is elegant and potentially a very good solution but I question its long term staying power. I think apple needs to dump out a keyboard accessory with touchbar... and perhaps shockingly, I think they need to make it with 1st class PC compatibility in mind. Not likely... and it seems its compatibility will even be somewhat limited on OS X hardware as there does not appear to be SDK tools that would allow say a web developer to make a site that could utilize the touchbar for web interface elements. With the growing use of cloud based software this seems a silly oversight on Apple's part. Thankfully it is one that isn't that hard to rectify. The last thing bugging me on the Apple front is the refusal to offer a top tier mobile graphics solution in a 'PRO' lineup and the ability to add up to 32GB of RAM. RAM configurations are limited to 16GB and these are soldered in RAM chips, not something you can user upgrade. The problem is not the architecture, it is Apple's refusal to allow a configuration that will significantly harm battery life of the models. This further limits the Macbook PRO appeal in the PRO market where RAM is king for most involved creative computing endeavors. How about a novel new RAM management system that allows you to turn off half the RAM when on battery power and utilize full capacity when plugged in? Or *gasp* allow it as a user option to opt for a mode that clearly states it will significantly lower expected battery life? When the Retina systems first launched they were one of the few laptops you could configure with 16GB of RAM. Now they are one of the few higher end machines you can't configure for 32GB. This is the kind of decisions with this line that has continued to narrow the difference between alternate solutions while keeping as high a price premium as when it offered a lot more unique capability.
Both:
Pricing. Holy crap on a stick the pricing. I love me some tech. But wow. The surface Studio starts at 3 grand. And that is with 8GB of Ram only, 1 generation back mobile graphics, and without the latest ports. Top tier cost. Mid tier or worse specs with the exception of its high resolution touch screen tilt hinge. Yes it is impressive, but it is tied to an already creaking system and you can't use it with an independent system. The Macbook Pro line is sticking to its typical nosebleed section. The problem is its distance from the competition has been severely eroded. The touchbar is its first real party piece to give it some market place separation but is it enough? Do I want one? Yes. But my personal laptop use level has tanked since I stopped being able to dual use my personal equipment for work and horsepower and build quality wise I can get similar systems for quite a bit less money. That means I am left paying the Apple tax for OS X over Windows X (much less of a compromise than windows 8 and back) and for the touch bar if I plunk down for one. Probably the biggest problem Apple is facing here from my stand point is the following. For approximately the cost of a top line iPad I can get a decent spec Surface Pro 4 which can meet the needs of a tablet and what I need from a laptop. And for the cost of a well speced Macbook Pro I can get a SurfaceBook that also meets tablet and high end laptop needs. On the Mac side I would want both an iPad and the Laptop which would cost quite a bit more... talking mid 2k cost vs 4k... and a bit. That is a lot of cheddar to stick with an OS and a half inch wide 11 inch long touch screen. This is making me wonder if the success of Surface will finally get Apple to launch an OS X capable iPad. The new chip in the iPhone scaled to iPad release raises some interesting thoughts along those lines... if an ARM architecture can run OS X apps as they sit now seamlessly (doubtful).
What am I exited about?:
Touch is breaking out of small mobile form factors and starting to become a part of the general computing landscape. It is overdue. The notion of a large touch based screen for a desk has a huge appeal and introducing the general population to a drafting desk style interface makes a lot of sense to me. In 5 years we may well look back on this 'small' screen studio as a quaint begining. 60-70" 4k screens are already well under 1000 bucks. In 5 years a true 'desktop' display could be a reality at similar or even higher resolutions. Add in touch and this is starting to merge the power of the pen in hand way of being creative in many many ways that have been traditionally extremely different and.... disconnected when it comes to computer input. The revamping of the keyboard into a dynamic device has been hinted at in the past when some have tried to make dynamic display keys. Apple seems to have cracked how to actually make it work. I really could see sitting at a studio style device with a touchbar style keyboard that then allows you to easily move to a hands on pen and puck based drafting mode and back depending on the tasks you are performing.
What got announced?
Microsoft launched their Surface Studio all in one PC. Big desktop screen all in one computer ala an iMac. But the party trick is the hinge of the monitor allows the screen to tilt down to a 20 degree angled 'drafting' mode. Because that screen is multi touch capable and compatible with their existing Surface Pen. It also comes with a puck that allows you to have a dial. The puck can sit on the desktop and be used to scroll through options/settings. And when in drafting mode it can actually rest on the surface studio screen and be detected, which allows it to produce graphics along its base to make it a dynamic dial. IE select from a color wheel by turning and the colors shift around on the screen based on you physically twisting the puck dial. This really does look useful and having done a fair amount of digital art work the thing had me salivating once I saw it tilted down and being able to use it as a drafting table. Something old is new again, in a very exciting way.
Apple launched their long overdue Macbook Pro updates and they came with a new 'Touch bar". Basically take the function keys up at the top of your keyboard that a large majority of users do not fully utilize and replace it with an OLED touch screen. This allows you to present dynamic touch based keys and interface items that change based on your current context. Similar to the puck concept for the surface pro you can down make physical touch based sliders as a part of your keyboard for scrolling through option settings etc... Pick through emoji. Scrub through charts/pictures etc... and even have touch screen function keys... namely an 'esc' key which the intertubes blew up over the loss of once the tech leaked. The end result is in theory a seamless addition of touch interface items without requiring the user to lift their hands from the keyboard. Of course, in addition to this they made everything smaller, lighter, more powerful and lasts longer. Oh yeah... and it has touch ID plumbed in.
So first off... I cannot speak to the performance of either. What interests me is Apple finally committing to a touch interface on the Macbook other than the track pad and Microsoft looking to perhaps have figured out how to move touch successfully onto a full desktop sized screen without the dreaded numb arms of death of holding your hands out in front of you at a computer. So in a way both of these product announcements represented Apple and Microsofts take on the way touch should be incorporated into the more traditional computer form factors.
This all goes back to something Steve Jobs (among others) pointed out as something users did not want based on testing. Namely, that interacting with a vertical screen in front of you for any length of time is not a good idea. My questions is did they ever actually consider changing the method by which you interact with your computer screen. Meaning move the screen so it isn't a vertical plane that you are interacting with raised hands? The answer seems to be yes. Just that Apple thought the answer to how to accomplish that was to make the screen as small and light as possible so that you used it in new ways/places. Hence the iPad and their continued refusal to incorporate touch into their traditional computing hardware. On the other hand, the PC world took the opening of large scale capacitive touch and moved it onto laptops where you still traditionally have a vertical screen or in many cases these days, a convertible hinge that alows you to sorta use a laptop like a big clunky tablet. The surface studio though makes a new assumption. That there is a better way to interact with your PC than sitting at a desk interacting with a vertical screen. The tilt down to 'draft table' mode is genius. It is the most 'Apple' thing I have seen since the original iPad announcement and it leverages a fairly common creative setup (standing at or on a stool leaning over at a drafting desk). Funny that it came from Microsoft. But not really surprising. Risk taking is typically something left for those looking to get to the top, rarely by those comfortably at the top. And in computer hardware right now Apple is the undisputed king and has been for 5+ years or so now.
What do I not like?
Surface Studio:
I have to agree with Norman Chan of tested.com who pointed out the Surface Studio concept is less attractive as an expensive all in one with questionable specs (for the cost mind you) than it would be as an expensive stand alone monitor solution that you could pair with any level desktop. The all in one internals on the computing side will get quickly dated... in fact considering it is launching with last generation mobile Nvidia graphics I think it is in fact launching out dated. And this is EXPENSIVE. It also lacks the higher bandwidth newer ports (thunderbolt/USB C) which means you can't drive that gorgeous display from a future system or even add a credible external graphics processing card. Hopefully MS figures this out either in the next generation by adding the necessary future proofing capabilities and or actually releasing this as a stand along monitor solution and not just as an all in one.
MacBook Pro:
For the Macbook Pro. I like the concept but I sense a firewire type debacle in the long run. Unless the notion of a touch bar interface gains wide acceptance the Mac OS laptop world is a niche market that will ultimately limit its adoption by the wider development community. It is elegant and potentially a very good solution but I question its long term staying power. I think apple needs to dump out a keyboard accessory with touchbar... and perhaps shockingly, I think they need to make it with 1st class PC compatibility in mind. Not likely... and it seems its compatibility will even be somewhat limited on OS X hardware as there does not appear to be SDK tools that would allow say a web developer to make a site that could utilize the touchbar for web interface elements. With the growing use of cloud based software this seems a silly oversight on Apple's part. Thankfully it is one that isn't that hard to rectify. The last thing bugging me on the Apple front is the refusal to offer a top tier mobile graphics solution in a 'PRO' lineup and the ability to add up to 32GB of RAM. RAM configurations are limited to 16GB and these are soldered in RAM chips, not something you can user upgrade. The problem is not the architecture, it is Apple's refusal to allow a configuration that will significantly harm battery life of the models. This further limits the Macbook PRO appeal in the PRO market where RAM is king for most involved creative computing endeavors. How about a novel new RAM management system that allows you to turn off half the RAM when on battery power and utilize full capacity when plugged in? Or *gasp* allow it as a user option to opt for a mode that clearly states it will significantly lower expected battery life? When the Retina systems first launched they were one of the few laptops you could configure with 16GB of RAM. Now they are one of the few higher end machines you can't configure for 32GB. This is the kind of decisions with this line that has continued to narrow the difference between alternate solutions while keeping as high a price premium as when it offered a lot more unique capability.
Both:
Pricing. Holy crap on a stick the pricing. I love me some tech. But wow. The surface Studio starts at 3 grand. And that is with 8GB of Ram only, 1 generation back mobile graphics, and without the latest ports. Top tier cost. Mid tier or worse specs with the exception of its high resolution touch screen tilt hinge. Yes it is impressive, but it is tied to an already creaking system and you can't use it with an independent system. The Macbook Pro line is sticking to its typical nosebleed section. The problem is its distance from the competition has been severely eroded. The touchbar is its first real party piece to give it some market place separation but is it enough? Do I want one? Yes. But my personal laptop use level has tanked since I stopped being able to dual use my personal equipment for work and horsepower and build quality wise I can get similar systems for quite a bit less money. That means I am left paying the Apple tax for OS X over Windows X (much less of a compromise than windows 8 and back) and for the touch bar if I plunk down for one. Probably the biggest problem Apple is facing here from my stand point is the following. For approximately the cost of a top line iPad I can get a decent spec Surface Pro 4 which can meet the needs of a tablet and what I need from a laptop. And for the cost of a well speced Macbook Pro I can get a SurfaceBook that also meets tablet and high end laptop needs. On the Mac side I would want both an iPad and the Laptop which would cost quite a bit more... talking mid 2k cost vs 4k... and a bit. That is a lot of cheddar to stick with an OS and a half inch wide 11 inch long touch screen. This is making me wonder if the success of Surface will finally get Apple to launch an OS X capable iPad. The new chip in the iPhone scaled to iPad release raises some interesting thoughts along those lines... if an ARM architecture can run OS X apps as they sit now seamlessly (doubtful).
What am I exited about?:
Touch is breaking out of small mobile form factors and starting to become a part of the general computing landscape. It is overdue. The notion of a large touch based screen for a desk has a huge appeal and introducing the general population to a drafting desk style interface makes a lot of sense to me. In 5 years we may well look back on this 'small' screen studio as a quaint begining. 60-70" 4k screens are already well under 1000 bucks. In 5 years a true 'desktop' display could be a reality at similar or even higher resolutions. Add in touch and this is starting to merge the power of the pen in hand way of being creative in many many ways that have been traditionally extremely different and.... disconnected when it comes to computer input. The revamping of the keyboard into a dynamic device has been hinted at in the past when some have tried to make dynamic display keys. Apple seems to have cracked how to actually make it work. I really could see sitting at a studio style device with a touchbar style keyboard that then allows you to easily move to a hands on pen and puck based drafting mode and back depending on the tasks you are performing.
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Election 2016: Some observations
What can be said about this mess that hasn't already been said? Not a whole lot I imagine. But I'll throw my two cents in anyway. First, some math.
~318 million. Approximate US population. (wiki)
~225 million. Approximate US voting age population. (pew research)
~60%. Approximate expected turnout of voting age population (~135 million, pew research)
~40%. Rough average of voting population that selected candidates in primary (~90 million, Wiki)
~7.5%. Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Clinton (~17 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
~6% . Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Trump (14 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
Translation. We are selecting our president based on the selections of 13.5% of our population. The opinion of 1 in 7 or so of our voting eligible citizens has determined the course of this election. Come next month we will select our president from the two nominated major party candidates. Whether or not that is a good thing I leave to the furball that is modern political discourse. The fact remains at this point that is what will happen barring a completely unprecedented surprise change in American voter behavior. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath waiting on that to occur. At the gross scale, electoral behavior is depressingly predictable. Just ask any campaign manager.
The way I read the tea leaves right now is the scale of results on 11/8 ranges from Landslide to Hillary up to Dead Heat for Trump. In the press the phrases you tend to hear are that Trumps path to victory are limited while Clinton has far more options. Or even more simply stated, if Florida falls Clinton it is almost assured to be game over for Trump.
Could there be a silent unpolled Republican hoard embarrassed to admit their support for Trump if polled (or just plain not being polled?) but willing to go to the booth? Well... it isn't impossible. The "fun" of those numbers up there is that there are ~88 million votes out there that COULD be cast above and beyond what the typical turn out would bring. Which is plenty and to spare to throw all current predictions out the window. In fact if all cast for the same candidate it is more than enough to elect someone. As things stand, the winner will likely net somewhere in the 70 million range. If it really goes lopsided it might get into the 80's.
It is beyond unlikely such a turn out swell will happen. And even if we did have a magic voter turn out approaching 100% then statistically they are still much more likely break along similar lines of voters that are already expected to go to the polls. Statistics are a bitch. And with most voter registration closed there is no evidence of some massive swell which really could not be missed. Finally, considering the demographics most prone to not being registered or to not vote when registered... it is unlikely a 100% turnout would tilt in favor Trump.
Even considering all that. In the end I only have one assured prediction for what is going to happen. In general the sheeple of the country will remain far more fixated on the headline crap of whoever is in or wants to be in the Oval office and less time understanding what is going on in congress or their local state government. My biggest gripe with the ballot I am going to face in November is not the 4 national candidates for president. It is all the single party unopposed candidates I am looking at on the rest of the damn ballot for local Alabama elections. That depresses me and makes me not want to bother. Because for the above to change... local elections have to change. My gripe with the media is instead of mainstream coverage being primarily about tearing apart candidate policy (at all levels) and breaking down the complicated issues to try and help as many folks grasp them as possible, they are instead rehashing over and over again tabloid news stories. On BOTH major national candidates and on down through the ranks. Perhaps worse is that the majority of the support I have heard for both national candidates is not about the candidate, but instead is a condemnation of their opponent. Like them or not. Like their history or not one of these two is going to be making some pretty important decisions for the next 4 years and I'd like it if we would turn our attention there. But... I am not holding my breath.
One last non election observation before signing off. I find it absolutely horrifying that we are having a stand still on the appointment to the supreme court. I would say this regardless of which side did the stonewalling. This is a reflection of the overall lack of ability of the parties to work across the isles and their respective electorates to stomach it when they do. Disapprove a candidate fine. Disapprove 100 candidates fine. But to refuse to even bring candidates before the houses of congress for consideration is unconscionable. This refusal to discharge a basic constitutional responsibility is dangerous.
I hope to have some time to sit down before the 8th and tear into one of the few things that seems to bear some number crunching from these two. Taxes and the Debt. Not that I think it will change anything but I want to see what those numbers are saying because it seems experts in the field find both candidates proposals a bunch of hooey and that 20 Trillion debt number is something I find rather alarming. On the local front I am wanting to dig a bit more into amendment 2 about the Alabama state parks and how they are funded.
~318 million. Approximate US population. (wiki)
~225 million. Approximate US voting age population. (pew research)
~60%. Approximate expected turnout of voting age population (~135 million, pew research)
~40%. Rough average of voting population that selected candidates in primary (~90 million, Wiki)
~7.5%. Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Clinton (~17 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
~6% . Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Trump (14 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
Translation. We are selecting our president based on the selections of 13.5% of our population. The opinion of 1 in 7 or so of our voting eligible citizens has determined the course of this election. Come next month we will select our president from the two nominated major party candidates. Whether or not that is a good thing I leave to the furball that is modern political discourse. The fact remains at this point that is what will happen barring a completely unprecedented surprise change in American voter behavior. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath waiting on that to occur. At the gross scale, electoral behavior is depressingly predictable. Just ask any campaign manager.
The way I read the tea leaves right now is the scale of results on 11/8 ranges from Landslide to Hillary up to Dead Heat for Trump. In the press the phrases you tend to hear are that Trumps path to victory are limited while Clinton has far more options. Or even more simply stated, if Florida falls Clinton it is almost assured to be game over for Trump.
Could there be a silent unpolled Republican hoard embarrassed to admit their support for Trump if polled (or just plain not being polled?) but willing to go to the booth? Well... it isn't impossible. The "fun" of those numbers up there is that there are ~88 million votes out there that COULD be cast above and beyond what the typical turn out would bring. Which is plenty and to spare to throw all current predictions out the window. In fact if all cast for the same candidate it is more than enough to elect someone. As things stand, the winner will likely net somewhere in the 70 million range. If it really goes lopsided it might get into the 80's.
It is beyond unlikely such a turn out swell will happen. And even if we did have a magic voter turn out approaching 100% then statistically they are still much more likely break along similar lines of voters that are already expected to go to the polls. Statistics are a bitch. And with most voter registration closed there is no evidence of some massive swell which really could not be missed. Finally, considering the demographics most prone to not being registered or to not vote when registered... it is unlikely a 100% turnout would tilt in favor Trump.
Even considering all that. In the end I only have one assured prediction for what is going to happen. In general the sheeple of the country will remain far more fixated on the headline crap of whoever is in or wants to be in the Oval office and less time understanding what is going on in congress or their local state government. My biggest gripe with the ballot I am going to face in November is not the 4 national candidates for president. It is all the single party unopposed candidates I am looking at on the rest of the damn ballot for local Alabama elections. That depresses me and makes me not want to bother. Because for the above to change... local elections have to change. My gripe with the media is instead of mainstream coverage being primarily about tearing apart candidate policy (at all levels) and breaking down the complicated issues to try and help as many folks grasp them as possible, they are instead rehashing over and over again tabloid news stories. On BOTH major national candidates and on down through the ranks. Perhaps worse is that the majority of the support I have heard for both national candidates is not about the candidate, but instead is a condemnation of their opponent. Like them or not. Like their history or not one of these two is going to be making some pretty important decisions for the next 4 years and I'd like it if we would turn our attention there. But... I am not holding my breath.
One last non election observation before signing off. I find it absolutely horrifying that we are having a stand still on the appointment to the supreme court. I would say this regardless of which side did the stonewalling. This is a reflection of the overall lack of ability of the parties to work across the isles and their respective electorates to stomach it when they do. Disapprove a candidate fine. Disapprove 100 candidates fine. But to refuse to even bring candidates before the houses of congress for consideration is unconscionable. This refusal to discharge a basic constitutional responsibility is dangerous.
I hope to have some time to sit down before the 8th and tear into one of the few things that seems to bear some number crunching from these two. Taxes and the Debt. Not that I think it will change anything but I want to see what those numbers are saying because it seems experts in the field find both candidates proposals a bunch of hooey and that 20 Trillion debt number is something I find rather alarming. On the local front I am wanting to dig a bit more into amendment 2 about the Alabama state parks and how they are funded.
Friday, July 01, 2016
Review: Hamilton - Broadway Musical Sound Track
This is one I have been meaning to write about for a while. I would be surprised if you had not heard in some form or fashion about Lin Manuel Miranda's sensational Broadway show about the life and times of Alexander Hamilton but if not let me see if I can capture in a nutshell what all the fuss is about.
So lets look a bit deeper into the historical side of this. I had a fairly good understanding of Hamilton's role in the Federalist papers and how he shaped the early US financial landscape. But little else. His war history and ties to Washington were a bit of a surprise as was his link to the Marquis De Lafayette. And I had not encountered the Reynolds affair... and had never really dug more into the Duel with Burr. The story as told in the songs is way to pat... I knew that. So I grabbed the Chernov biography that inspired Miranda to see how far he had to twist things to get such a dramatic story. And found that surprisingly enough the twisting was ultimately fairly minor. Here is what I have so far at about half way through the biography.
1- The Caribbean pre-story leading to Hamilton making it to the new world is surprisingly accurate. The only real egregious dramatic interpretation that stood out to me was to latch onto the somewhat questionable characterization of Hamilton's mother as a "Whore". It seems that was more of a claim of her first husband used for gain rather than anything rooted in literal accuracy. Makes for catchy and memorable setup in the titular song though... and its continual call backs through out the play emphasizing just how far Hamilton climbed from his humble beginnings. And this is to some extent a semantics issue. She was decried publicly as a Whore by her Husband who wrangled some legal repercussions out of her choice to pursue an extramarital relationship. Historical study seems to show the claims were not based on any kind of literal fact of say her working in a bordello or otherwise literally prostituting herself. Miranda using this side of the story is more like continuing to spread bad rumors in order to prop his boy up more. It may be the only real questionable twist of the story told by Chernov as far as I can tell.
2 - The image of Hamilton with Burr, Laurens, Muligan and Lafayette in a pub is pretty inaccurate and is overlaying Hamilton's kings College Days with his stint as Washington's aide de camp. The Burr connection at this point is substantially stronger in the telling of the play than was in reality. However, that said there were connections to all of these characters. Burr was not Charles Lee's second so Hamilton and Burr did not meet as seconds on the 'field of honor' when Laurens dueled Lee in the aftermath of the battle of Monmouth. Also, the connection with Seaburry with that fuge like back and forth over the rise of the rebellion is not terribly well explained in the play but is otherwise pulled largely from the pages of the biography. This was a teenager taking on a reigning politician anonymously through the paper publishing games of the day.
3 - The courting of Eliza Schulyer and the link to Angelica were also dramatically shortened and highlighted respectively. That there was a deep affection between Hamilton and Angelica is accurate. Anything more has been a source of academic speculation since... well hell when they were alive. But the dramatic license used to have Angelica pass on Hamilton does not seem to be anywhere near accurate. But as with the early introduction and strengthening of the Burr connection this really does not detract for the core of the accuracy of the story and unlike the use of Whore to describe Hamilton's mother with zero shading/nuance I wouldn't exactly classify this as misleading. More a reasonable extrapolation of how things could have gone down. The other surprise was that Miranda chose not to utilize the reality that Angelica was connected to Jefferson as well.
4 - If anything his overall military accomplishments and his role as Washington's right hand man is underplayed in reading Chernov. Certainly his overall battlefield experience prior to joining Washington't staff was down played to raise the power of his request for command. Hamilton would have had a decent military legacy without his role in the Battle of Yorktown... but that certainly sealed it for him. The relationship with Washington is also free of the realities of the muddle of history in the telling. Again it seems Miranda weaves a clear narrative out of multiple possible interpretations... but in places it presents a far clearer story than the historical evidence presents. Again in the vein of story telling no major flaws.
5 - Found it interesting that Miranda shied away from digging deeper into the shenanigans of Washington's cabinet going on between Jefferson and Hamilton. Those two rap battles of cabinet discourse could probably have been expanded into the whole play.
6 - The Reynolds affair timeline is definitely tidied up to make for easier story telling. I actually found it surprising how little it ultimately did deviate. Mostly he just simplified the story without getting much into the broader issue of James Reynolds and the accusations of improper speculation beyond a couple of verses here and there alluding the the charges Jefferson was really pursuing when he got surprised by the underlying reality of the affair as opposed to financial scandal he suspected. He also kind of sticks to the story of a more unwitting Maria Reynolds where in reality she and her Husband were likely a con artist pair who were attempting to blackmail Hamilton into abusing his powers as treasuring secretary for their benefit in addition to the extortion over the affair. Neither way of telling the story does a better job of explaining what the hell happened for Hamilton to drop his pants or why he didn't back away from it all sooner. Also... if anything the Whole Reynolds pamphlet section of the song underplays just how insane Hamilton's nuclear option response was to try and clear his name through a detailed confession of the details surrounding his affair.
7 - The play never says Phillip Hamilton was an only child but unless his siblings appear as part of the stage show it really does seem to be implied. I imagine to make the loss of him to a duel even more powerful. Reality was the Hamilton's had LOTS of kids, 8 in total.
And so far that is it. Haven't gotten to the second half. I am about at the end of Washington's second term in the book. But the general take away thus far has been that while Miranda's telling doesn't stand up as a rigorous historical re-telling, in terms of a play/movie/entertainment etc... goes it is damn near archival in nature in comparison to the usual lose affiliation with the truth other "inspired by true events" story telling you encounter.
Anyway. The music is good and incredibly catchy and solid throughout. It is definitely more powerful as a whole work than in any individual track. It is a powerful retelling of elements of the founding of the US and ticks off some very powerful elements in very succinct segments nutshelling a lot of very complex subjects that help build the bedrock of the nation. George Washington saying goodbye and the incredulity of European leadership at the American Experiment. Setting the tone of just how improbable our separation from England was. Explaining why we did not join with the rebellion in France despite their aide. The importance of establishing our financial system in a way that helped us maintain our independence. And many more. The songs are powerful mnemonical devices for remembering important historical issues wrapped up in an improbably true story of an amazing American.
If you hadn't guessed I think its worth a listen if you haven't done so yet. Here is hoping that the PBS taping of the show will make it out in its entirety at some point.
A play predicated on early American History centered around one of the less well known founding fathers, Alexander Hamilton. In particular his efforts as first Secretary of the treasury. And by all initial accounts the history was pretty accurate all things considered. Truly 'riviting' stuff right?
The cast of the show is pretty much as color blind as it can be with no regard to trying to cast 'accurately' based on the ethnicity of the various historical characters. I'd say the more shocking element of this is how shocking some find it. Personally I consider the need to have accurate ethnicity represented in things like plays/movies etc... is less about accuracy than it is about a fundamental underlying assumption about the importance of race no matter what is said on the surface about how meaningless it is or should be. Put another way... for example: In depicting the figure of George Washington, what he stood for and how he managed what he did is far far far more important than that he was a white guy. But put a black George Washington on stage and it seems that is all folks can talk about. Why is that if race is unimportant?
Finally, the music is largely centered in contemporary hip hop style with bits and pieces here and there of more traditional show tunes. And it was done well enough the album has made it well up the charts.
So think about that for a second. A historically accurate (well essentially accurate) play sung in hip hop about the founding fathers by an ultra diverse cast. I do not question for a second how this would get popular on Broadway in New York. It does not however, explain a rise on the charts for the music independent of the stage performance indicating a much wider popularity than a Broadway musical typically garners. I became intrigued.
I first began hearing about this odd combination of things through a rather odd channel. Adam Savage kept raving about it as part of his Tested.com podcasts. They even dedicated a whole spoiler cast to it where it was the primary topic. If you go looking through the list of topics of their spoiler casts Hamilton leaps out as "one of these is not like the others". Most of the other things on tested like this I am well versed in and know plenty about. When Hamilton cropped up I was initially clueless what they were talking about. The more I heard the more intrigued I became. Then I found that Google Play and Amazon Prime both have the soundtrack available. I listened to a couple of tracks... And kind of went about my business. Only to get Lebowski'ed.
Background: I know a bit more about Hamilton as a Political Science major than the average bear. You can't get through any study of the founding of the Constitution and the Federalist papers without getting a good dose of Hamilton. While he in large part got written out of the larger popular origin story most students get tortured with in school his contributions are substantial areas of study for any real dive into the start of the nation. After all, there is a reason his mug is on the 10$ bill even if (well until recently) the vast majority of the population probably couldn't have even named him, much less why he was in the company of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Franklin ETC... The amazing thing is how much of that survived AFTER his role has been in large parts diminished in popular history. In parts overshadowed by the insanity of his death at the hands of Arron Burr and his personal life scandal which combined provide most of the dramatic excitement of the play... And some of the least accurate history if still based on a core of truth. The rest is just due to the rather dry subject matter of founding the economy of the US and funding of the fledgling government. Boring accounting stuff that reeks of Wall Street mumbo jumbo. Fitting seeing as he is in large parts credited with starting Wall Street down the path to becoming the world wide economic force that it became... For good or bad.
So what do I mean by Lebowski'ed? One of my favorite movies of all times is the Cohen brothers "The Big Lebowski". When I first saw it I probably would have classified it as one of my least favorite. I was not particularly taken with it. But it just stuck in my head. It wormed its way in. It is one of the finer examples of studios having no clue how to market unusual content that defies classification. My initial disappointment was due to expecting a fairly light hearted goof off movie in the vein of Dumb and Dumber rather than the almost art house dark comedy it was.
My initial brush with the music of Hamilton was not nearly as negative. But it was still more of a 'meh' than a 'holy shit'. I listened to the opening track and 'Take a Break'. Or more accurately I think I listed far enough into the sound track that I heard both and they were the ones that registered. I thought... Interesting. The rapid fire was clever and the harmonies pretty damn awesome. But in general Hip Hop has never really captured me musically. Prior to this about the only song in this vein I could say captured me at all was "Lose Yourself" by Eminem.
But bits and pieces of those songs stuck. Refrains kept sneaking back up on me. My brain kept working to unravel what it had heard. Which normally I don't do. Lyrics can stick in my head for 'singing along with the radio'.... But they rarely stick on a conscious level.
Then I had to drive to Houston for work... And I queued up the album, cranked it up. And somewhere around the Battle for Yorktown I experienced something I had never experienced before. I had a movie playing in my head from a set of songs. This is what happens to me when reading a book I like. I stop seeing words on the page and start experiencing a movie in my head. I listened to it again. And got more. Again. More. Again. The music form for all its catchiness is still not exactly the greatest thing for me. But the words. The imagery. The emotion.... Those all speak to me very much regardless of the delivery mechanism. And apparently they have found a hold in a large swath of people as evidenced by the popularity the music has attained.
So lets look a bit deeper into the historical side of this. I had a fairly good understanding of Hamilton's role in the Federalist papers and how he shaped the early US financial landscape. But little else. His war history and ties to Washington were a bit of a surprise as was his link to the Marquis De Lafayette. And I had not encountered the Reynolds affair... and had never really dug more into the Duel with Burr. The story as told in the songs is way to pat... I knew that. So I grabbed the Chernov biography that inspired Miranda to see how far he had to twist things to get such a dramatic story. And found that surprisingly enough the twisting was ultimately fairly minor. Here is what I have so far at about half way through the biography.
1- The Caribbean pre-story leading to Hamilton making it to the new world is surprisingly accurate. The only real egregious dramatic interpretation that stood out to me was to latch onto the somewhat questionable characterization of Hamilton's mother as a "Whore". It seems that was more of a claim of her first husband used for gain rather than anything rooted in literal accuracy. Makes for catchy and memorable setup in the titular song though... and its continual call backs through out the play emphasizing just how far Hamilton climbed from his humble beginnings. And this is to some extent a semantics issue. She was decried publicly as a Whore by her Husband who wrangled some legal repercussions out of her choice to pursue an extramarital relationship. Historical study seems to show the claims were not based on any kind of literal fact of say her working in a bordello or otherwise literally prostituting herself. Miranda using this side of the story is more like continuing to spread bad rumors in order to prop his boy up more. It may be the only real questionable twist of the story told by Chernov as far as I can tell.
2 - The image of Hamilton with Burr, Laurens, Muligan and Lafayette in a pub is pretty inaccurate and is overlaying Hamilton's kings College Days with his stint as Washington's aide de camp. The Burr connection at this point is substantially stronger in the telling of the play than was in reality. However, that said there were connections to all of these characters. Burr was not Charles Lee's second so Hamilton and Burr did not meet as seconds on the 'field of honor' when Laurens dueled Lee in the aftermath of the battle of Monmouth. Also, the connection with Seaburry with that fuge like back and forth over the rise of the rebellion is not terribly well explained in the play but is otherwise pulled largely from the pages of the biography. This was a teenager taking on a reigning politician anonymously through the paper publishing games of the day.
3 - The courting of Eliza Schulyer and the link to Angelica were also dramatically shortened and highlighted respectively. That there was a deep affection between Hamilton and Angelica is accurate. Anything more has been a source of academic speculation since... well hell when they were alive. But the dramatic license used to have Angelica pass on Hamilton does not seem to be anywhere near accurate. But as with the early introduction and strengthening of the Burr connection this really does not detract for the core of the accuracy of the story and unlike the use of Whore to describe Hamilton's mother with zero shading/nuance I wouldn't exactly classify this as misleading. More a reasonable extrapolation of how things could have gone down. The other surprise was that Miranda chose not to utilize the reality that Angelica was connected to Jefferson as well.
4 - If anything his overall military accomplishments and his role as Washington's right hand man is underplayed in reading Chernov. Certainly his overall battlefield experience prior to joining Washington't staff was down played to raise the power of his request for command. Hamilton would have had a decent military legacy without his role in the Battle of Yorktown... but that certainly sealed it for him. The relationship with Washington is also free of the realities of the muddle of history in the telling. Again it seems Miranda weaves a clear narrative out of multiple possible interpretations... but in places it presents a far clearer story than the historical evidence presents. Again in the vein of story telling no major flaws.
5 - Found it interesting that Miranda shied away from digging deeper into the shenanigans of Washington's cabinet going on between Jefferson and Hamilton. Those two rap battles of cabinet discourse could probably have been expanded into the whole play.
6 - The Reynolds affair timeline is definitely tidied up to make for easier story telling. I actually found it surprising how little it ultimately did deviate. Mostly he just simplified the story without getting much into the broader issue of James Reynolds and the accusations of improper speculation beyond a couple of verses here and there alluding the the charges Jefferson was really pursuing when he got surprised by the underlying reality of the affair as opposed to financial scandal he suspected. He also kind of sticks to the story of a more unwitting Maria Reynolds where in reality she and her Husband were likely a con artist pair who were attempting to blackmail Hamilton into abusing his powers as treasuring secretary for their benefit in addition to the extortion over the affair. Neither way of telling the story does a better job of explaining what the hell happened for Hamilton to drop his pants or why he didn't back away from it all sooner. Also... if anything the Whole Reynolds pamphlet section of the song underplays just how insane Hamilton's nuclear option response was to try and clear his name through a detailed confession of the details surrounding his affair.
7 - The play never says Phillip Hamilton was an only child but unless his siblings appear as part of the stage show it really does seem to be implied. I imagine to make the loss of him to a duel even more powerful. Reality was the Hamilton's had LOTS of kids, 8 in total.
And so far that is it. Haven't gotten to the second half. I am about at the end of Washington's second term in the book. But the general take away thus far has been that while Miranda's telling doesn't stand up as a rigorous historical re-telling, in terms of a play/movie/entertainment etc... goes it is damn near archival in nature in comparison to the usual lose affiliation with the truth other "inspired by true events" story telling you encounter.
Anyway. The music is good and incredibly catchy and solid throughout. It is definitely more powerful as a whole work than in any individual track. It is a powerful retelling of elements of the founding of the US and ticks off some very powerful elements in very succinct segments nutshelling a lot of very complex subjects that help build the bedrock of the nation. George Washington saying goodbye and the incredulity of European leadership at the American Experiment. Setting the tone of just how improbable our separation from England was. Explaining why we did not join with the rebellion in France despite their aide. The importance of establishing our financial system in a way that helped us maintain our independence. And many more. The songs are powerful mnemonical devices for remembering important historical issues wrapped up in an improbably true story of an amazing American.
If you hadn't guessed I think its worth a listen if you haven't done so yet. Here is hoping that the PBS taping of the show will make it out in its entirety at some point.
Thursday, June 30, 2016
3d Printing Meets Adventures in Home Ownership
Home ownership is full of its up and downs... and recently it has been more downs around here.
Last Friday I wake up, get out of bed, step onto soft spot next to the bed. Crap. Open the door to the HVAC system and feel damp breeze waft out and see water all around the bottom of the unit dripping down from the ducting going up into the ceiling. Fun. Let work know I won't be in. start soaking water up with towels and start calling around town to find an outfit with an opening that day in the first week of the first real heat wave of the summer. Right... well I get lucky and after some begging get someone to send a tech by to at least try and help me figure out what the problem is and what to do. Ducts are water logged... leaking back down. Need to replace ducts. Set up duct replacement. Continue changing out towels. Maybe its not that bad. Come home from work to change out towels on Monday and remember its time to change the filter. Lift filter and see a glint... a reflection.... CRAP. Shine flash light.... DOUBLE CRAP. Take vents off and take a picture of.....
Needless to say the words to describe the feeling that hit at that point are numerous, short and involve lots and lots of beeps. Quick trip to Home Depot and I am sucking up fuzz and .... whatever the hell that was into the new super suck 9000 unit (RIGID Shop Vac). And seeing plenty of drips still coming down so obviously the towel routine had not been as effective as we thought. Start going over the unit and find the source as the access less PVC drain pipe coming off what I later learn is the the condensation pan. Water is pooling on the top and weeping down the side of the unit coming primarily out from where the pipe connects. Didn't look like much really, just all adds up. Ok... now what. I really don't want to turn off the unit but I can't let the water continue to soak into the wood. To late to go to the store. Previous adventures in plumbing tell me to leave the damn pipe alone and let someone that knows what the hell they are about deal with it. So my brain runs through a few dozen different possible ways to re-direct the water so I can get it gathered before it gets to the floor. Stop gap one was using a towel as a wick to get into a bucket, or change out before it starts dripping (worked, but to much water)... Tried getting it to a bucket, got about half of it going through the towel.... not bad but not good enough.
Then it hits me. I have a 3d printer now. 2 hours later the mark one Home Emergency Weeping Water Redirection Unit (HEWWFRU).... or really just a quick and dirty flat sided funnel.... pops off the bed.
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| Mark 1 Home Emergency Water Re-direction Unit (HEWWFRU) .... also known as a flat sided funnel |
Not the best outcome. Can't see it here but the top layers (in terms of print direction) of the funnel before the spout partially failed to fill in so there was more than the expected hole through the spout which I had thought to use with some tubing to run out into a large bucket for a reservoir. Couple of magnets and a rag as a wick and it is mounted to the side of the unit and the majority of the water is now going where I want it... a gallon pitcher down the side of the unit. But... the flat lip is problematic as there is still more than a little bit of water escaping down the side (and back) of the unit. Enter the Mark two.
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| Mark 2 Home Emergency Weeping Water Flow Redirection Unit or HEWWFRU (right)... still a funnel, but a bit more specialized one |
It is wider. Has angled edges into a curved lip to gather a wide area of weeping water into the collection area. To get it far enough away from the side to drip where I want it, I extended out the skinner section. The holes were in the design (ie didn't have to add them later). The angles selected and the walls mean no overhangs (overhang was the problem with undesired holes in the MK 1 seen above). Those with sensitive dispositions may look away now, extreme item repurposing below.
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| Mark 2 installed with multiple magnetic fastening units, water wick and Trojan water seal |
So the rag is wrapped around the pipe junction with the unit and sitting where the water has been pooling and is draped over the side into the Mark 2 HEWWFRU (gotta be a better acronym... it will do for now). You may notice a repurposed prophylactic (Trojan© Water Shield or TWS) is providing a nice water tight shield to prevent water from slipping down behind the HEWWFRU. Why a Condom? Well it was the quick fix. I later tried some plumbers putty but couldn't get it on thin enough and it caused problems with the magnets. I didn't want to epoxy the thing to the side so I went back to the TWS solution. Worked like a champ.
You can't see them here but inside are a couple of neodymium magnets I had laying around and that is what is holding this all in place.
Now I had another problem. With the water redirected I could now determine how much was coming out. Gallon jug lasted 2 hours. Half a gallon an hour. More short expressive words and broadcast beeping. This caused two issues, one: retro calculating back to first indication of a problem several days prior meant there was a crap ton of water presumably now spread through out the sub floor. Two... I would need to get up to empty the damn thing every 90 minutes or so (not to mention not being able to leave the unit on and go to work). This found me bleary eyed at Lowes soon after it opened the next morning. The Mark 2 had taken several hours to print and I didn't want to try and design a printable tube on the design again after the mark 1 failure... so I just wanted to figure out how to get from that drop out of the MK II into a bigger bucket outside the closet the unit was in.
Quick Aside: while all this was going on I had of course immediately called for the HVAC guys to come back once I found the water under the unit etc... and once I had shop vac'ed up that standing water and crud I had a bunch of pans under the unit in that horror space catching the drip off from water collected under the unit. At this point I was pretty confident that the water was no longer getting to the floor of the house otherwise the unit would have been turned off. This was later confirmed by the contractor contact from state farm who came out to assess the water damage with the help of his humidity sensor. While there was still some collecting under the unit but that was kind of 'damage is done' deal. Replacing or even shoring that up from underneath is going to be a bastid....
Returning from my early morning Lowes run I had some .5" tubing, a through hull, a sacrificial plastic box, an adapter with a barb to get from the through hull to the tubing. Hmmmm... sacrificial box was to wide, forgot to measure damnit. Hmmmm.... used baby wipe plastic box is the right size. Cobble cobble cobble together.... out with the gallon jug, in with the Lower High Capacity Receiving Unit (LHCRU.... or more accurately a kludge). The tube from the LHCRU is run out to ye olde 5 gallon bucket (YOFGB).
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| Lower High Capacity Receiving Unit (LHCRU) For The HEWWFRU with TWS |
If you look close you can also see that after I put in the new highly modified HEWWFRU LHCRU I added a final piece of flare in the form of a splash reduction apparatus ( SRA AKA a spare piece of Lexan) to reduce the amount of..... splash. Right.
Now I have a reasonable amount of time where what I thought was the source of the leak (failed pipe connection) is re-directed so that everything else should be drying out. Only to find while most of the drips underneath had stopped... there were some still going. Far lower rate that what I had going into the bucket but still problematic. So in addition to the bucket I am occasionally changing out/draining pans under the unit and waiting for HVAC.
Now lets be clear on a couple of things. The above is meant to be a bit humorous and the silly jargon and acronym stuff is all with tongue firmly in cheek. If I knew what the hell I was about I would have fixed the problem rather than simply stopping the damage from continuing. Once the guys that do this for a living got there it took them about 30 minutes to diagnose and fix the problem. Turned out to be a clogged condensation drain. The pipe connection was fine, water was coming from the overflowing pan, just happened to be primarily coming out above where the pipe join was. While they were at it I had them install a safety float switch that shuts the unit down if this ever happens again. This also provides access to the drain pipe so I can easily blow it out/drop bleach down it etc... Very expensive little switch at 200 bucks... but worth it.
As I mentioned In the midst of this I also had a contractor in to assess water damage and they found the humidity out away from the unit was low enough it wasn't registering on the detector. So the steps I took were effective otherwise I would have shut the damn thing down. The other bitter sweet bit of news was those soft spots were now crackly where they had been spongey. Neither the initial HVAC tech (who missed them damn leak) or the Contractor believed I needed to shut it down as long as I was getting the water taken care of. Basically, the bottom line of all the above shenanigans meant I didn't need to shut the unit off in 90+ degree heat and take us all to a hotel or something while waiting for a repair to be made.
I don't think I would have been successful without the HEWWFRU which I could not have done without having my new toy. Without this piece the TWS, LHCRU with SRA and YOFGB would not have been able to do their respective jobs as I do not think I could have redirected enough of the water sufficiently by other means in the time available before I called it quits, shut the unit off and bugged out to a Ho Jo. Between the avoided two or three nights in a hotel and probably a boarded Trudi I think the Printrbot almost paid for itself as a result of this particular adventure in home ownership. Not exactly a reason to justify the purchase of a fancy plastic melter but it was an interesting case of what you can do with one which I thought some of you out there may enjoy reading about. If you hadn't figured it out yet though, this is NOT recommended as a primary solution by any means!
Friday, June 03, 2016
Tech Review: Oculus Rift CV1, VR is here
First off a word about what this is not.... This is not a "is the Rift better than the Vive?" discussion. But if my opinion on the subject is of interest... Vive is probably the better overall deal if room scale is the draw. Otherwise the tech in play is very similar. If that is Greek (or should I say geek?) I'll put it this way... If you want to walk around with a mask on with cables running out of it to experience the most immersion possible get the Vive so long as we are on the first generation. Otherwise the two are so similar that picking by coin flip will work. And no, the later release of Oculus touch doesn't really change that take... no camera on the rift so no way to do something like the chaperone feature of the vive.
There, with that out of the way let's talk the rift and VR in general.
I could go on for ages about the story of Palmer Luckey and his rise to the tech stratosphere... And if it interests you at all I highly encourage you to Google it and read up. But I want to skip to the end.
90fps + (< 5ms delay) + low_persistence_high_resolution_display = ability to fuck with your brain to the point it will interpret what it is seeing as you being somewhere else.
This is the "equation" of VR presence. Achieving presence is the difference between seeing a picture of the coliseum and something of the sense you are standing next to it on the streets of Rome. A palpable sense of presence is what is now being achieved with these headsets. Is it perfect? Hell no. Vision is only one piece of the puzzle of the way the human brain interprets its surroundings. But there is something to the adage seeing is believing. Once you believe your eyes are telling you you are somewhere else the rest of your cognition seems to follow to a certain extent.
This is the "equation" of VR presence. Achieving presence is the difference between seeing a picture of the coliseum and something of the sense you are standing next to it on the streets of Rome. A palpable sense of presence is what is now being achieved with these headsets. Is it perfect? Hell no. Vision is only one piece of the puzzle of the way the human brain interprets its surroundings. But there is something to the adage seeing is believing. Once you believe your eyes are telling you you are somewhere else the rest of your cognition seems to follow to a certain extent.
What does this mean in practical terms? It is one of those rare transformative things for which there is no wide spread understanding upon which to communicate a common understanding. Or put another way.... It's something you need to experience to fully grasp what folks are talking about. I have imagined what it would be like ever since I first wanted to turn my head in a flight sim on a computer more than 20 years ago and even so I was still surprised by what I experienced from my initial experience with the rift.
The good:
Presence. When it works the mind trickery is magic. I could go on in explicative laden hyperbolic bombast... and if you have had any interest in VR news you have likely read many statements along those lines. But really, this is one you need to experience to understand. Don't let the sheer volume of things I have in the other sections distract from this singular point.
Fit. While nowhere near "stylish" this is light years down the road from the monstrosities of the last VR craze. You can wear it comfortably for a long time and is very well balanced.
The So So:
Current crop of software/games for VR:
In solving presence and getting the tech to the point it is no longer an automatic vomit creation machine for a large majority of the population a new set of problems now need to be resolved.
Bottom line here... if you really are wanting to see where VR is headed keep an eye on the software store content levels along with the price of a decent entry level rig. More software (and I mean from established AAA content makers) means more sales means bigger market means lowering price of entry. If that cycle starts in earnest it is hard to predict where this tech ends up in 2-5 years. If it doesn't, then things are unlikely to change dramatically from its present state.
The resolution of the screens:
If not for the recent push to super high resolution displays you couldn't have VR.... but.... they have not yet gone far enough. While CV1 Rift and the Vive have largely gotten ride of the glaring "screen door" effect (seeing the space separating the individual LED pixels) of the earlier dev models, it is not gone. The end result is that despite the high resolution the graphics quality is actually a step back overall. It is a factor of how close your eyes are to the screen. The screens in use are the first round of purpose built VR tech... they will get better. But pressing forward in resolution comes with an inescapable need to push quite a few more pixels. That said, Nvidia's pascal line of video cards bodes well for the future of even higher resolution VR headsets. 2-3 generations of video cards designed for VR and screens designed for VR and we could be in some very interesting territory. For now the graphics are "good enough"... but not what they need to be in the long haul. Especially for non-gaming functions.
The So So:
Current crop of software/games for VR:
In solving presence and getting the tech to the point it is no longer an automatic vomit creation machine for a large majority of the population a new set of problems now need to be resolved.
- Movement in games independent of your physical movement still largely equals a trip to queasy town for a decent percentage of folks. Everything you have learned about moving in a virtual game world is null and void seems to be what the early games are figuring out and new methods that are VR centric are emerging. Probably the harshest criticism the Rift is rightfully getting is that while the "presence" is awesome.... just adding that to an otherwise standard 2d screen based game has limited appeal... it isn't going to keep driving sales of a ~$1500-2000 setup. Either VR has to get a lot cheaper or it is destined to remain fairly niche in its applications without a better solution in this area.
- Looking beyond games is the basic idea of doing work in software with a headset on. You are separated from your normal inputs. A mouse works ok, a keyboard is an advanced course in touch typing. Even the average touch typist still look for those less common hits. Fully navigating a modern OS and Software often requires more than 'typing' for odd button combos... and its a rare person that can hit ctrl-option-function key of choice without looking etc... A part of the solution is a dedicated VR interface device. Vive has the hand units, Rift has some on the way. However, the elephant in the room on both is still typing. This is where VR is at a serious disadvantage to AR tech like Microsofts holo lens. As things sit now AR seems to be a better bet for getting work done where full immersion is not the goal, VR seems better suited to more immersive but ultimately limited interaction gaming solutions.
Bottom line here... if you really are wanting to see where VR is headed keep an eye on the software store content levels along with the price of a decent entry level rig. More software (and I mean from established AAA content makers) means more sales means bigger market means lowering price of entry. If that cycle starts in earnest it is hard to predict where this tech ends up in 2-5 years. If it doesn't, then things are unlikely to change dramatically from its present state.
The resolution of the screens:
If not for the recent push to super high resolution displays you couldn't have VR.... but.... they have not yet gone far enough. While CV1 Rift and the Vive have largely gotten ride of the glaring "screen door" effect (seeing the space separating the individual LED pixels) of the earlier dev models, it is not gone. The end result is that despite the high resolution the graphics quality is actually a step back overall. It is a factor of how close your eyes are to the screen. The screens in use are the first round of purpose built VR tech... they will get better. But pressing forward in resolution comes with an inescapable need to push quite a few more pixels. That said, Nvidia's pascal line of video cards bodes well for the future of even higher resolution VR headsets. 2-3 generations of video cards designed for VR and screens designed for VR and we could be in some very interesting territory. For now the graphics are "good enough"... but not what they need to be in the long haul. Especially for non-gaming functions.
The bad:
VR sickness: I didn't choose the phrase "fucking with your brain" lightly. Make no mistake, VR is seriously fucking with one of your primary senses. When done poorly or irresponsibly this thing is a guaranteed chunder fest. Fooling your eye is not the same as fooling your inner ear. When those two senses get to disconnected you are in for a bad time. It does not take much of this for a large portion of the population of the world to revisit their last meal upon whoever or whatever is nearest in short order. It is also hard to predict. I play project cars... my Wife is a huge F1 fanatic and during the weekend for the Monaco Grand Prix I wanted to have her drive a lap around Monaco in VR because its awesome. What was awesome for me and had zero stomach flip factor made her dizzy and nauseous instantly and had her off kilter for the next hour or so.
Lack of optimized interface. Mouse and keyboard doesn't work well. Tracked controllers are still in their infancy. Very awkward to transition between the two modes in order to deal with more complex interactions like.... Typing.
Missing depth adjustment. You can adjust the IPD (distance between your eyes) but not back and forward. Doubt long term any headsets will not have both of these.
Think oculus goofed not launching with the touch controllers. without them you really are reliant on the controller (Xbox or Oculus puck) but they can be sorely lacking at times... and trying to blind find a keyboard while in VR is a BITCH. That goes back to the seeing is believing thing. Once your brain buys that you are somewhere else visually it is HARD to keep a separate physical map. IE reaching for a keyboard in reality when your VR world has no such thing causes a pretty weird disconnect. I almost have to shut my eyes and revert to other senses to determine my surroundings.
Conclusion:
Much as I hate to say it... VR does not have its "Killer App" at this time. I have little doubt some form of consumer level VR is here to stay but I think the jury is out on whether or not this is the 'iPhone' moment for the technology. By that I mean the thing that takes a tech from the geeky corners and into the mainstream. This may be more of a blackberry/palm pilot era for now. The focus until now has been on getting the graphics good enough to not make people sick... but the interface questions still loom large. This is still a good parallel to the early smart phones and PDAs where the capability of the pocket computer was undeniable... but it was all locked behind an impossible input conundrum that took capacitive touch and a firm break from desktop OS interface tropes to resolve. For anyone who has experienced the thrill a good 'presence' experience can provide it is fairly obvious there is something here to exploit. We just need to figure out how to actually harness it.
Do I regret my purchase? No.... make that... HELL no. But hindsight being what it is I am thinking a bit more patience may have been the better path if I had it to do over again. The only thing I am really frustrated at right now is being denied my high quality general aviation simulator with a VR headset experience. FSX hasn't been updated in a long time and doesn't support VR. Xplane worked with the Dev kits but does not work with CV1 that I can find. Oculus dropped OpenGL support for the time being. But there is DCS.... and they have a freebie P-51 mustang model :-) Landing a mustang is a real challenge.... and it is made harder by the headset in some key ways, and much easier in others. Visual cues and being able to look out the side easily as the nose obscures the runway is good. Interacting with all the special keys to do gear, flaps, mixture, throttle etc.... Not so much.
Misc:
Weirdest experience thus far:
The Apollo 11 VR experience starts you out sitting in a 60's living room watching a "film" projection on a wall. Two things happened in this. First, it finally clicked why there are so many skew morphic 2d screen concepts for VR (IE sitting in a movie theater, or a living room etc....). On a 2d screen skew morphic design has always fallen a bit flat for me. In VR it MAKES SENSE. seeing a 2d image projected onto a wall, or on a large screen tracks completely with your expectations and it fits. This was almost immediately followed by looking around and going "WHAT THE FUCK... WHERE IS MY BODY" when I looked down into an empty chair that I was "sitting" in. This is the level of brain screwing going on. No matter how cognizant I was of the fact I was not really there the basic level of my brains perception was and remains severely disturbed by not having a visual re-enforcement of my physical presence when doing things like moving an arm and feeling it move but not seeing it in the VR session.
Coolest experiences thus far:
Think oculus goofed not launching with the touch controllers. without them you really are reliant on the controller (Xbox or Oculus puck) but they can be sorely lacking at times... and trying to blind find a keyboard while in VR is a BITCH. That goes back to the seeing is believing thing. Once your brain buys that you are somewhere else visually it is HARD to keep a separate physical map. IE reaching for a keyboard in reality when your VR world has no such thing causes a pretty weird disconnect. I almost have to shut my eyes and revert to other senses to determine my surroundings.
Conclusion:
Much as I hate to say it... VR does not have its "Killer App" at this time. I have little doubt some form of consumer level VR is here to stay but I think the jury is out on whether or not this is the 'iPhone' moment for the technology. By that I mean the thing that takes a tech from the geeky corners and into the mainstream. This may be more of a blackberry/palm pilot era for now. The focus until now has been on getting the graphics good enough to not make people sick... but the interface questions still loom large. This is still a good parallel to the early smart phones and PDAs where the capability of the pocket computer was undeniable... but it was all locked behind an impossible input conundrum that took capacitive touch and a firm break from desktop OS interface tropes to resolve. For anyone who has experienced the thrill a good 'presence' experience can provide it is fairly obvious there is something here to exploit. We just need to figure out how to actually harness it.
Do I regret my purchase? No.... make that... HELL no. But hindsight being what it is I am thinking a bit more patience may have been the better path if I had it to do over again. The only thing I am really frustrated at right now is being denied my high quality general aviation simulator with a VR headset experience. FSX hasn't been updated in a long time and doesn't support VR. Xplane worked with the Dev kits but does not work with CV1 that I can find. Oculus dropped OpenGL support for the time being. But there is DCS.... and they have a freebie P-51 mustang model :-) Landing a mustang is a real challenge.... and it is made harder by the headset in some key ways, and much easier in others. Visual cues and being able to look out the side easily as the nose obscures the runway is good. Interacting with all the special keys to do gear, flaps, mixture, throttle etc.... Not so much.
Misc:
Weirdest experience thus far:
The Apollo 11 VR experience starts you out sitting in a 60's living room watching a "film" projection on a wall. Two things happened in this. First, it finally clicked why there are so many skew morphic 2d screen concepts for VR (IE sitting in a movie theater, or a living room etc....). On a 2d screen skew morphic design has always fallen a bit flat for me. In VR it MAKES SENSE. seeing a 2d image projected onto a wall, or on a large screen tracks completely with your expectations and it fits. This was almost immediately followed by looking around and going "WHAT THE FUCK... WHERE IS MY BODY" when I looked down into an empty chair that I was "sitting" in. This is the level of brain screwing going on. No matter how cognizant I was of the fact I was not really there the basic level of my brains perception was and remains severely disturbed by not having a visual re-enforcement of my physical presence when doing things like moving an arm and feeling it move but not seeing it in the VR session.
Coolest experiences thus far:
- When I was first plopped into the cockpit of a P-51D Mustang at altitude over Tibilisi in DCS.
- The shift from the 60's living room to a projection of the moon filling my field of view in the Apollo experience with the space ship coming into view to my side. 3d, stereoscopic rounded detailed moon... peripheral vision registering something and just turning my head to see the Apollo capsule and lunar lander coming by on its way to its date with history. Magic.. as is this whole thing. More than any other 'story' mode VR thing I have tried this one shows the promise of VR to reach people in a new an powerful way.
- Oculus dream deck has several cool factor shorts... T-Rex on the prowl in a museum, standing on the edge of a TALL building (serious vertigo just like if I had been there) where the two that registered the most. Another sampler has a Minecraft cathedral that is awesome.
- Project Cars sitting in a Mustang GT heading out onto the Nurburgring and FINALLY being able to really appreciate the elevation changes and road camber angles etc.... Close second is the corkscrew at Laguna Seca, driving a Bac Mono around Monaco.
- And of course can't leave out getting shot out of a launch tube Battlestar Galactica style in Eve Valkyrie.... absolute crying shame about the rest of the experience. They REALLY need a game/story there beyond the handful of multiplayer maps that it has. Glad it was included, id have hated it if I had paid full price for it.
Disappointments:
- Lucky's tale. It LOOKS SO COOL. And it is fun... right up to the point you get told you have to repeat the early levels getting bonus points etc... until you unlock the next one. Super Mario this is not. artificial game mechanic play time extensions are bad enough when the hook sets strong enough to keep you on the treadmill. When your level designs are heavily relying on the novelty of VR as opposed to a honed game mechanic its idiocy. Double so when instead of maybe forcing replays of the most challenging areas... you are forcing replays of the introductory areas. I was liking the build up of complexity and wanted to play the next level... had ZERO interest in repeating levels to get there. Haven't opened it since. Seriously disappointing.
- Virtual desktop. It is beta and it may well move out of this column. But right now its buggy and weird running this software through steam on the oculus. Biggest bummer was not being able to define multiple virtual desktops to arrange around me. You can only arrange what you have physically (IE if you only have one monitor attached you can only have one desktop. I get the underlying windows driver issue that forces this.... does not make it suck any less. Absolutley nuts a virtual environment requires real monitors you can't look at to be able to display them virtually. It isn't a physical processing limit... its a "we never thought anyone would ever do that" problem. Hopefully Microsoft releases an update that addresses this.
- Pricing of VR titles vs value. Many of the games are at best tech demos but a lot of them are charging AAA release rates. Project cars is the only thing I have seen thus far that rates full price. The Climb may also rate it... but haven't shelled out to try it yet.
- Adrift: again highly highly highly cool experience. But once that wears off, it is VERY slow and boring... and it can easily test the fortitude of your stomach in a hurry. Think I would like it more without the 'game'. IE just set me free on that station to explore.... both before and after the accident.... PLEASE.
- Farlands: again... the game is not the draw. The ability to pop around in a VR alien environment is and you are severely artificially limited in how freely you can do that.
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