Election 2016: Some observations

What can be said about this mess that hasn't already been said? Not a whole lot I imagine. But I'll throw my two cents in anyway. First, some math.

~318 million. Approximate US population. (wiki)
~225 million. Approximate US voting age population. (pew research)
~60%. Approximate expected turnout of voting age population (~135 million, pew research)
~40%. Rough average of voting population that selected candidates in primary (~90 million, Wiki)
~7.5%. Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Clinton (~17 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
~6% . Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Trump (14 mil votes in primary, Wiki)

Translation. We are selecting our president based on the selections of 13.5% of our population. The opinion of 1 in 7 or so of our voting eligible citizens has determined the course of this election. Come next month we will select our president from the two nominated major party candidates. Whether or not that is a good thing I leave to the furball that is modern political discourse. The fact remains at this point that is what will happen barring a completely unprecedented surprise change in American voter behavior. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath waiting on that to occur. At the gross scale, electoral behavior is depressingly predictable. Just ask any campaign manager.

The way I read the tea leaves right now is the scale of results on 11/8 ranges from Landslide to Hillary up to Dead Heat for Trump. In the press the phrases you tend to hear are that Trumps path to victory are limited while Clinton has far more options. Or even more simply stated, if Florida falls Clinton it is almost assured to be game over for Trump.

Could there be a silent unpolled Republican hoard embarrassed to admit their support for Trump if polled (or just plain not being polled?) but willing to go to the booth? Well... it isn't impossible. The "fun" of those numbers up there is that there are ~88 million votes out there that COULD be cast above and beyond what the typical turn out would bring. Which is plenty and to spare to throw all current predictions out the window. In fact if all cast for the same candidate it is more than enough to elect someone. As things stand, the winner will likely net somewhere in the 70 million range. If it really goes lopsided it might get into the 80's.

It is beyond unlikely such a turn out swell will happen. And even if we did have a magic voter turn out approaching 100% then statistically they are still much more likely break along similar lines of voters that are already expected to go to the polls. Statistics are a bitch. And with most voter registration closed there is no evidence of some massive swell which really could not be missed. Finally, considering the demographics most prone to not being registered or to not vote when registered... it is unlikely a 100% turnout would tilt in favor Trump.

Even considering all that. In the end I only have one assured prediction for what is going to happen. In general the sheeple of the country will remain far more fixated on the headline crap of whoever is in or wants to be in the Oval office and less time understanding what is going on in congress or their local state government. My biggest gripe with the ballot I am going to face in November is not the 4 national candidates for president. It is all the single party unopposed candidates I am looking at on the rest of the damn ballot for local Alabama elections. That depresses me and makes me not want to bother. Because for the above to change... local elections have to change. My gripe with the media is instead of mainstream coverage being primarily about tearing apart candidate policy (at all levels) and breaking down the complicated issues to try and help as many folks grasp them as possible, they are instead rehashing over and over again tabloid news stories. On BOTH major national candidates and on down through the ranks. Perhaps worse is that the majority of the support I have heard for both national candidates is not about the candidate, but instead is a condemnation of their opponent. Like them or not. Like their history or not one of these two is going to be making some pretty important decisions for the next 4 years and I'd like it if we would turn our attention there. But... I am not holding my breath.

One last non election observation before signing off. I find it absolutely horrifying that we are having a stand still on the appointment to the supreme court. I would say this regardless of which side did the stonewalling. This is a reflection of the overall lack of ability of the parties to work across the isles and their respective electorates to stomach it when they do. Disapprove a candidate fine. Disapprove 100 candidates fine. But to refuse to even bring candidates before the houses of congress for consideration is unconscionable. This refusal to discharge a basic constitutional responsibility is dangerous.

I hope to have some time to sit down before the 8th and tear into one of the few things that seems to bear some number crunching from these two. Taxes and the Debt. Not that I think it will change anything but I want to see what those numbers are saying because it seems experts in the field find both candidates proposals a bunch of hooey and that 20 Trillion debt number is something I find rather alarming. On the local front I am wanting to dig a bit more into amendment 2 about the Alabama state parks and how they are funded.