Prognostication Roundup, Amazon Kindle announcement, and iPhone 5 thoughts

In February 2010 I wrote the following regarding the then freshly revealed first generation iPad:

Make no mistake this is typical Apple early adopter pricing (read nose bleed high). In the long run this level of pricing may well continue to define the upper end. But based on these numbers I expect to see mobile tablets in the $100-300 range with more capability than the initial iPad inside of 2 years. E-ink is either going to step up its game (color, refresh rates), go sub $100 (sub $50?) or disappear all together. If E-ink gets to color refresh rates on par with LCD technology and remains lower power it will fold into this market quickly.

Prior to the iPad 2 release I also speculated about Retina displays

• iPad 2 would have Retina… OR
• iPad 3 would have Retina
• iPad 3 would release mid cycle

Today, September 27th 2011 about 19 months later Amazon just announced a new Kindle for $79. Not an old version made cheaper. An announced new Kindle with new higher quality E-ink display for $79. They also announced the Fire. A 7 inch color LCD device.

I’m a Genius:

• Sub 100 dollar e-ink reader in <24 months ? Check. The newly announced entry level Kindle is $79
  • Of special note, this is not a reduced cost older model but a new model with improved screen.

• E-reader move to LCD technology in <24 months ? Check (The color Nook from B&N was first a couple months back)
  • A major fallout of the move of printed material to electronics is much more direct competition with other kinds of media. I adopted a Kindle 2 for my reading only to supplant it with the iPad not because it was a better reading experience… but because the iPad offered me so much more along with a ‘good enough’ reading experience.

I’m a Schmuck:

• Tablet with better specs than original iPad for <=$300 in <24 months? Swing and a miss…. so far. 4 months to go ☺
  • Motorola Xoom has the specs (heck it beats the iPad2 specs) but the price is still north of 400 even with incentives
  • Kindle Fire and a few others have the price but not the specs
  • Double or nothing it happens < 36 months?
• iPad2 with Retina? Negatory Nostrodumus, try again
• iPad 2s/3 mid cycle release ? barring a surprise release as part of the october 4th event shockingly wrong again.

Still Waiting:

• iPad 3 with Retina ? Specs for the next iPad are still the stuff of much speculation. There is some solidifying evidence that Apple is preparing to make a tablet sized display in Retina type DPI ranges. Outlook favorable.
• Tablets a default part of the computing landscape in <=5 years? Not even 2 years in and looking good
  • Could argue we are already there.
    • Industry Tech discussion regarding tablets has gone from ‘why’ to ‘whats next’.
    • There does not seem to be any real concern about the ‘bubble bursting’ though the fact nobody can crack Apples strangle hold on the market still has a few thinking it is all a ‘distortion field’ driven market.
  • Next generation of devices is crucial to this one becoming a slam dunk and I really think a serious competitor to Apple needs to emerge to really drive this one home inside of 5 years from the release of the original iPad

Amazon made some pretty big waves a couple of days ago with its new Kindle Lineup

• Base kindle with new higher contrast e-ink perl display, wifi only for $79 bucks.
  • 4th generation device now in a pretty strong market and seriously cracking the $100 barrier vs. the typical 99.99 nonsense I think drives them even farther. 2012 will not be good to the printed book industry.
• Two new touch driven e-ink devices at only slightly higher pricing…
  • 99$, wifi only? (add supported?)
  • 149$ no adds and 3g (no adds)
• Gives a nice range of selection for the various e-bookworms to choose from.
• Highly anticipated color wifi android tablet reader for $200
  • Very aggressive pricing for a decent tablet spec.
    • Same screen technology and capacitive touch as iPad but smaller form factor and far fewer widgets (no microphone, no camera, no bluetooth etc…).
  • Amazon market for kindle material and Amazon Application market for Android represent the only real alternative challenging the iTunes/App store juggernaut from Cupertino.
  • Silk browser is creating some serious buzz and looks to be a truly useful feature

Amazon is fighting guerrilla warfare against Apple here. Head on point to point there is almost no comparison. But the e-ink devices excel at what they do and the launch of an LCD color tablet offers kindle loyalists the chance to expand within Amazon’s lineup and gives Apple escapists a real option in the tablet world with app and content support nobody else is really succeeding in putting together despite the fact android devices are hugely popular. Add in the truly tempting price point compared to even bottom bracket iPads and you have a very compelling device. This is going to be interesting.

iPhones next incarnation is finally officially being revealed on October 4th… quick thoughts.

• I am getting one regardless of the details. Will be the first Apple Device Pre-order for me in fact.
  
  
  
  • A lot of this is due to the absolute dominance of the app store and my current level of investment in apps
  
  
  • Also because I am that happy with my iPhone experience to date (primarily 3Gs but now also have a 4 for work)
  
  
  • Normally I want hands on experience before buying a device like this but the basics of the apple phone ergonomics are pretty well established. Apple would have to do something very unexpected in the reveal on the 4th to make me hesitate on a pre-order.
  
  
  
  


• Guesses that I haven’t seen on other sites… only have one really
  
  
  
  • Thunderbolt supported via 30pin dock connector which allows for super fast syncing with thunderbolt equipped machines running iTunes
    
    
    
    • Apples patent for adding thunderbolt to their 30 pin connector was a minor story several months back
    
    
    • Apple is strongly embracing thunderbolt… all Macs now have a port and the displays now connect via thunderbolt
    
    
    • I strongly believe an eventual endgame for iPad/iPhone will be the ability to drive a Cinema display (or two?) as part of a ‘desktop’ mode of operation. I see this as a long term effort by Apple to erase the basic concept that there must be a distinction between an ‘OS’ and a ‘Mobile OS’. There will just be an ‘OS’. The consumer then only has to decide on how much computing power they really need. ‘Mobile’ processors are rapidly reaching performance levels that could handle full fledged computing tasks with no apologies for the vast majority of users. If the idea of an OS becomes singular rather than context driven then processors will follow suit and the same technology will drive everything from your phone to a server cluster.
    
    
    
    
  
  
  • Ability to drive full HD on external monitors
    
    
    
    • Greater than HD would be very interesting as I mention above but I think its too soon for that. Would be an awesome ‘one more thing’ though.
    
    
    • Not much of a guess as the iPad2 can already do this and the iPhone 5 will likely have more CPU horsepower and RAM under the hood along with a graphics processor at least as powerful if not a step ahead.
    
    
    
    
  
  
  
  

Review (long term update): 2012 Mustang GT with Brembo Package

There have been quite a few mustang reviews for this model so I won’t go into my usual level of detail. For once there is plenty out there and more on the subject. Besides… its a Mustang so whats to know right? Big(ish) engine, bad handling, awful fall apart interior and mullets galore right?

Wrong. Very Very Very wrong. For one, I owned a Mustang that gloriously lived up to that stereotype and this car is nothing like it. For one it doesn’t actively try to kill me at the slightest provocation despite the fact it does still have a live rear axel. Just exactly how Ford managed that is a deep dark mystery… but I suspect someone lost their soul over it.

The new 5.0 deserves its Press. 400+hp hitched to a slick shifting 6 speed tied to standard limited slip differentials in 3 exciting flavors (3.31 ‘fun’, 3.55 ‘hell yeah’ and 3.73 ‘holy $#!&’). All that and it is still a typical base mustang engine (read lots of tuning potential). The difference is unlike in the past you no longer have to tune it just to get the power level that should be there from the start. 400hp with damn near 400 tq out of a lighting fast NA engine is a whole lot of automotive ju ju to play with.

The Brembo Package is a no brainer option for anyone who actually buys this car to drive for reasons other than making large clouds of white smoke (though thats certainly still an option). For those that don’t know this ~$1800 bundle of goodness brings you an actually sporty suspension tune, 255 max performance summer rubber on decent looking if heavy wheels, 14” 4 piston Brembo’s up front that can stand a hot lap or three without melting and a track mode for the electronic nanny for a nice additional touch. Any one of those upgrades over standard would cost you about the same thing as the whole ford factory package and each would risk voiding large sections of your warranty.

Combine the basic GT Mustang with the Brembo option and you get the following…

“Mustang…. its not just for straight lines any more”

It doesn’t even really take the Brembo package… that just seals the deal. Even the base beast is no longer just a traffic light drag race warrior. The base car is now essentially the 2008 Bullit limited edition car with a nicer interior and a serious drive train upgrade which isn’t exactly shabby.

Don’t take my word for it… go drive one. I did and will now do so on a daily basis for the foreseeable future. It may take surgical implements to remove the grin. All this and its still a ‘bang for the buck bargain’. Ford is currently pushing 0% financing out to 60 months and just 1.9% for 72 through early October (2011). Invoice cost is realistic though (patience may be required) and that drops damn near 2k off the sticker.

Oh yeah… I will throw in a couple of nuggets I know nobody else has bothered to report on. The rear latch system will work for a baby trend seat and the V-8 apparently has a distinct rumble that sends infants (well at least one) immediately to sleep :-)

Update: 2/21/2013

So after more than a year of ownership and ~22k miles what do I think? Well the Pirelli's that come with the car are expensive and they do not last long. Many folks on the forums quite 12-15k of life. I got 21 before getting down to the wear marks. Have seen a few folks claim 30k miles but they must really be driving like granny's to get it. I am not some hooligan doing burnouts and donuts all over the place. But I will break the back end loose on occasion and chirp the tires launching every now and then just because I can. After all, if you are not interested in that why exactly would you buy a 400+hp car to begin with? If you buy from tire rack and are looking to replace this tire look for the Audi spec one. it is $100 less than the Mercedes spec they quote as OEM for the mustang with the Brembo brake package and A call to Perelli confirmed they are the same tire. Same compound, same carcass. And from my experience so far the exact same driving experience. For some reason the speed ratings are different. but the Audi spec is still rated for 186Mph... considering the car in stock trim is electronically limited to 155Mps I think its safe to say the least. Even if you remove the limiter 186 is beyond the reach of the stock engine setup as the car tops out around 170 something in stock power/aerodynamic trend.

Other than that the only issues have been a slight misalignment of my front tire courtesy of a curb I lost track of in a drive through and oil changes every 5k miles. Ford says every 10k but they do not use synthetic by default in these cars and it is cheap peace of mind if over cautious to half the service interval (about 50$ for a dealer inspection/oil change). Think I paid around $100 for my 15k that also did the various filters.

I replaced that damned plastic piece of garbage they called a steering wheel in my 200a interior (base level) with a take off Boss unit from Roush. Wheel cost $250 from Roush (vs 400+ direct from Ford) and 150 to install and program the computer to use the new radio control buttons. Makes a HUGE difference in the quality of the interface with the car. Whoever approved that base level wheel needs to be sacked.  The 150 install was a bit of a ripoff... but I really didn't want to mess with the airbag and Ford had to hook it up to their shop computer to program it regardless so I let them do the whole thing. Ended up costing about the same installed as if I had bought the wheel from Ford Racing parts.

Beyond that I have not done any modifications to the car and do not think it needs any to enjoy driving legally on public roads. However, for future HPDE runs I would like to do I am following the Vorshlag build discussion (google it) and have given a lot of consideration to their recommended wheel/tire/suspension upgrades. Vorshlag camber plates at 2-2.5 neg camber, AST adjustible shocks, linear springs, white line watts link, 18"x10" forge star or Dforce 20# wheels and probably some BFG Rival super high performance tires for a street able setup that can haul ass around the bendy stuff without quickly destroying 1000+ worth of tires in the process... oh yeah and probably carbotech pads and some braided steel lines. Brembo's seem more than up to snuff for hot laps otherwise. Works out to around 6k of stuff. Add in some aero work it it looks like you have a really serious road racer on your hands in the Coyote s197 package. Stock power is plenty and to spare for the stock setup... and probably even for that super nice suspension setup based on what they are seeing with their second car. They have done no power mods on it and have been running similar laps to their first car with new headers and a tune pushing 420ish or so to the rear wheels.

iPad3 Retina Display and the implications

Ok. So back before the iPad 2 launch I had a post speculating about the possibility of an iPad with a retina display. I held that it was coming on either the iPad 2 (which it didn’t) or the iPad 3. Why do I think this will happen? Numerous reasons

• The technology exists
• Apple has patented an update to their 30 pin connection to allow for thunderbolt connections which will allow them to support pushing such a gargantuan resolution to an external display.
• Rumors have not stopped circulating that Apple is in talks to buy iPad three parts and that acquiring this level of resolution display from samsung is under discussions.
• Thunderbolt can be used to run at least 2 monitors at this resolution
• As I have discussed before, getting to the 300dpi mark in a device like the iPad will eventually spell the death of the print out and make good on all those thoughts of ‘paperless’ offices
• Apple wants to change the primary computing paradigm
• iPad is experiencing one of the fastest rates of uptake for a new technology in a corporate environment ever
• Lion is showing the future of Apple by moving to a more iOS type interface and method of document handling
  • Don’t worry... there will always be a need for a more nitty gritty OS experience... but Apple is looking to pave the nuts and bolts over for real. But in order to pave the way for a universal application environment the current paradigms have to be merged (Mobile and Full Fledge OS).

Here is how all this adds up.

Imagine if you would docking your iPad (or iPhone for that matter) and running an Apple cinema display attached to a keyboard an mouse. The iPad itself could become a pallete based input device or secondary display to assist with actions on the large screen. The large screen itself could even accept touch input and be mounted on a pivot that would allow you to do so with greater ease (see touch iMac patent for how). When you are done you simply undock the iPad and go about your merry business. Your works is saved on the device and if desired on Apples (or other services) cloud servers. You didn’t have to ‘save’ anything, it just did this as you did your work. Lost documents because you forgot to save becomes super rare and generally only costs seconds/minutes of work instead of hours/days. Information is stored in multiple places by default and so the problem of losing a device becomes less critical. Distinctions between working on a document on a ‘mobile’ device or a PC have all but disappeared. Any of your friends that have such a dock setup would be an opportunity for you to run your own personal computer setup rather than having to borrow theirs. When viewing documents on the go the screens 280 DPI or better resolution would be a close match for your standard laser print out quality. Printers soon start becoming something old and stodgy people rely on like fax machines in the face of e-mail. However don’t expect that transition to take a decade or more as with e-mail and fax. As this sort of on the go computing becomes more and more ‘normal’ there will be a ridiculous explosion in how our information interacts. What Facebook has done for online social interaction, tablets are going to do for moribund business processes mired in static media.

This is in a nutshell what Jobs means when he pontificates about a ‘post PC’ world. Make no mistake, Apple is not after a niche market here. They want the brass ring they lost to Microsoft in the early war for the desktop computer market. If they keep going on like this then the late 80’s decline into almost oblivion may ultimately be a ‘blip’ in a computing history dominated by the Cupertino crowd going forward.

The iPad 3 and similar devices are not going to accomplish all of that vision in one fell swoop. But a retina display and ability to drive such a high resolution external monitor will in my opinion be the ‘missing link’ device that gets us a large step down the road from a mobile & PC world to a unified general computing world. OS X and windows 8 both mark a move by the Major OS world to align with the mobile world just as the Tablet interfaces have steadily encroached on what has been considered basic computing.

Will they pull it off? Who knows. Going to be fun to watch.