The ACA or (Affordable Care Act) is the law of the land. It cannot be repealed without congressional action. It cannot be repealed by executive fiat. Can they work together to kill it? Yep. But... as in most things it just isn't that simple. Lets take a look.
The president CAN stymie key elements of implementation of the legislation through control of the executive branch and related bureaucracies. Some of this can be expected I imagine. Our current president has done this by delaying some key provisions of the administrations signature act. So just the fact this happens is not cause for undue alarm... there could be legitimate reasons for doing this. The legitimacy of those actions is not subject to whether or not you agree with them.... well not of anyone likely to read these words. New leadership WILL make new compromises. That is inevitable. Many have questioned the current administrations choices, and many will question the next. But simply making different choices is not in and of itself malicious. The proof will be in the pudding on any decisions made.
The thing is to focus on the leaderships decision only is to ignore the important part here. For the leader of the executive branch to do this legitimately or capriciously comes at a cost if it creates real problems with real peoples health care. Make good choices reap the rewards. Make bad choices and reap the 'rewards'. The checks and balances of our system are not just at the institutional level of the branches of Government. The republicans did not waltz their way into the executive branch leadership. They squeaked in with only the 5th election in our history that had a split outcome between the popular vote and the electoral vote. Even if the current administration does not feel overly tied to the Republican party there is still a massive incentive to not upset the apple cart and risk a voter revolt against them at the mid term elections in two years handing them a hostile house, and possibly a hostile Senate.
You may have noticed that political attacks against the ACA are not targeted at the people covered, but most are (correctly) targeted at the ballooning costs of that coverage. A likely tact going forward are decisions targeted at changing those ballooning costs. Does that really sound so bad? Done right it will be a good thing. Also, the rhetoric of the campaign trail is far removed from 'official' action. It is not political candidate flakiness that causes this. Politicians have an impossible task of tailoring a message that will cut through the noise to reach voters... and the methods of doing so are by and large devoid of the nuance of reality. The issues of ACA are Rube Goldbergian in nature and you can spend years trying to understand all of the inter related issues of government surrounding the passage of any kind of legislation of its nature.... and still not understand it all. A 30 second sound bite position it is not when it comes to the actual nitty gritty dirty details of actually trying to enact it, repair it, or repeal it. Contrary to popular belief legislators do not spend all day in front of the cameras. They spend the majority of their time working on the logistical agreement details of these insanely complex pieces of legislation and the down and dirty details tend to be worked by an army of staffers.
But the republican party holds both houses of congress and the white house? Can't they do ANYTHING they want?
To a certain extent yes. In theory there is a great deal they can do that is subject only to a judicial review (more on that topic to come in future posts). Basically any act that can pass short of super majority requirements. But.... make that BUT, any legislation they pass purely on the back of their legislative majorities without fear of veto from the executive runs afoul of the same problem. They have been complaining about the ACA and fighting in various ways to either cut it or alter it. But they have not owned it. Like it or not, as law of the land, it has now gotten established and to simply yank it out of the books and revert back would probably be political suicide, result in chaos in the health care market, and most likely toss another log on the fire of civil unrest. Also... while it is presently far more likely than it has been during just about any time in our history for all legislative members to vote in party lockstep.... it does require that to actually happen. Current members of the party in more moderate districts will as always have to consider whether not voting for legislation that could swing their electorate will allow them to vote in favor purely on a party line basis. I do not envy these members but I also feel zero pity for them. It is their job. They have to balance party leadership and their voters. One of those is a constitutional duty. The other is tradition. If you do not know which is which you should brush up on your civics knowledge. I personally think a growing abdication of that duty to their electorate (even for extremely good causes) is part of the current problem we are facing. Governments job is to be a parent for the electorate and to make decisions best for all of us in theory. In practice it is a complicated and painful process to determine what exactly that path is.
The reality (at least as I see it in all my sophomoric "wisdom") is that the republican party is going to try and find a way to disassociate the whole package of US federal government health care legislation from its current democratic party signature status. In short they do not want the ACA to become enshrined as did acts like the "new deal" or the "great society" without their party being able to claim ownership or at least a major role. Right now I imagine the scheming is to ultimately be seen as the 'Savior' of universal health care in the US. The current administration rightfully or wrongfully has the image of having strong armed this legislation through and while they are taking plenty of flack for the problems, I think it is safe to say at this point the positives of the ACA are far out weighing the negatives. In other words... it is a good problem for the democrats to have. For the republican party to accomplish this they have to make changes in such a way that there is a clear net benefit to the MILLIONS impacted by their actions that they can lay claim to. As news stories have begun reporting... that means there seem to be a few 'untouchables' emerging in the new round of DC tango over health care legislation. The protection for those with prior conditions to not be denied coverage or to face sky high premiums targeted at them looks like it is untouchable. The allowance of children to remain on their parents policies up to the age of 26 is another one. These are some pretty important elements of ACA. For me personally the change regarding what insurance companies were allowed to do regarding prior existing conditions was worth quite a bit of the pain and suffering of the whole thing. Why congress didn't just pass that as stand alone legislation YEARS ago is something that never ceases to baffle me. Really, after those two what you are looking at remaining are the mandates for citizens to have coverage at a minimum defined level, Mandate for more employers to offer it to all employees at a minimum defined level, and the markets for non employer based plans.
So what is most likely about to happen is that the ACA is dead.... but long live the ACA. If you are not familiar with that particular saying as regards the transition of power of monarchs (the king is dead, long live the king). It means it will change, but there will be something doing the same job in its place. Here is hoping those changes will be for the better.
Saturday, November 12, 2016
Sunday, October 30, 2016
Recent Tech Announcement Roundup - Microsoft Surface Studio, Macbook Pro
Last week saw a couple of major product announcements from the Mac vs PC folks. The funny thing is the roles were reversed. Apple had an interesting but ultimately blah announcement with their new Macbook Pros while Microsoft wowed with the new Surface Studio all in one. Both have their issues that I am going to break my usual rule of not reviewing something I have not personally used.
What got announced?
Microsoft launched their Surface Studio all in one PC. Big desktop screen all in one computer ala an iMac. But the party trick is the hinge of the monitor allows the screen to tilt down to a 20 degree angled 'drafting' mode. Because that screen is multi touch capable and compatible with their existing Surface Pen. It also comes with a puck that allows you to have a dial. The puck can sit on the desktop and be used to scroll through options/settings. And when in drafting mode it can actually rest on the surface studio screen and be detected, which allows it to produce graphics along its base to make it a dynamic dial. IE select from a color wheel by turning and the colors shift around on the screen based on you physically twisting the puck dial. This really does look useful and having done a fair amount of digital art work the thing had me salivating once I saw it tilted down and being able to use it as a drafting table. Something old is new again, in a very exciting way.
Apple launched their long overdue Macbook Pro updates and they came with a new 'Touch bar". Basically take the function keys up at the top of your keyboard that a large majority of users do not fully utilize and replace it with an OLED touch screen. This allows you to present dynamic touch based keys and interface items that change based on your current context. Similar to the puck concept for the surface pro you can down make physical touch based sliders as a part of your keyboard for scrolling through option settings etc... Pick through emoji. Scrub through charts/pictures etc... and even have touch screen function keys... namely an 'esc' key which the intertubes blew up over the loss of once the tech leaked. The end result is in theory a seamless addition of touch interface items without requiring the user to lift their hands from the keyboard. Of course, in addition to this they made everything smaller, lighter, more powerful and lasts longer. Oh yeah... and it has touch ID plumbed in.
So first off... I cannot speak to the performance of either. What interests me is Apple finally committing to a touch interface on the Macbook other than the track pad and Microsoft looking to perhaps have figured out how to move touch successfully onto a full desktop sized screen without the dreaded numb arms of death of holding your hands out in front of you at a computer. So in a way both of these product announcements represented Apple and Microsofts take on the way touch should be incorporated into the more traditional computer form factors.
This all goes back to something Steve Jobs (among others) pointed out as something users did not want based on testing. Namely, that interacting with a vertical screen in front of you for any length of time is not a good idea. My questions is did they ever actually consider changing the method by which you interact with your computer screen. Meaning move the screen so it isn't a vertical plane that you are interacting with raised hands? The answer seems to be yes. Just that Apple thought the answer to how to accomplish that was to make the screen as small and light as possible so that you used it in new ways/places. Hence the iPad and their continued refusal to incorporate touch into their traditional computing hardware. On the other hand, the PC world took the opening of large scale capacitive touch and moved it onto laptops where you still traditionally have a vertical screen or in many cases these days, a convertible hinge that alows you to sorta use a laptop like a big clunky tablet. The surface studio though makes a new assumption. That there is a better way to interact with your PC than sitting at a desk interacting with a vertical screen. The tilt down to 'draft table' mode is genius. It is the most 'Apple' thing I have seen since the original iPad announcement and it leverages a fairly common creative setup (standing at or on a stool leaning over at a drafting desk). Funny that it came from Microsoft. But not really surprising. Risk taking is typically something left for those looking to get to the top, rarely by those comfortably at the top. And in computer hardware right now Apple is the undisputed king and has been for 5+ years or so now.
What do I not like?
Surface Studio:
I have to agree with Norman Chan of tested.com who pointed out the Surface Studio concept is less attractive as an expensive all in one with questionable specs (for the cost mind you) than it would be as an expensive stand alone monitor solution that you could pair with any level desktop. The all in one internals on the computing side will get quickly dated... in fact considering it is launching with last generation mobile Nvidia graphics I think it is in fact launching out dated. And this is EXPENSIVE. It also lacks the higher bandwidth newer ports (thunderbolt/USB C) which means you can't drive that gorgeous display from a future system or even add a credible external graphics processing card. Hopefully MS figures this out either in the next generation by adding the necessary future proofing capabilities and or actually releasing this as a stand along monitor solution and not just as an all in one.
MacBook Pro:
For the Macbook Pro. I like the concept but I sense a firewire type debacle in the long run. Unless the notion of a touch bar interface gains wide acceptance the Mac OS laptop world is a niche market that will ultimately limit its adoption by the wider development community. It is elegant and potentially a very good solution but I question its long term staying power. I think apple needs to dump out a keyboard accessory with touchbar... and perhaps shockingly, I think they need to make it with 1st class PC compatibility in mind. Not likely... and it seems its compatibility will even be somewhat limited on OS X hardware as there does not appear to be SDK tools that would allow say a web developer to make a site that could utilize the touchbar for web interface elements. With the growing use of cloud based software this seems a silly oversight on Apple's part. Thankfully it is one that isn't that hard to rectify. The last thing bugging me on the Apple front is the refusal to offer a top tier mobile graphics solution in a 'PRO' lineup and the ability to add up to 32GB of RAM. RAM configurations are limited to 16GB and these are soldered in RAM chips, not something you can user upgrade. The problem is not the architecture, it is Apple's refusal to allow a configuration that will significantly harm battery life of the models. This further limits the Macbook PRO appeal in the PRO market where RAM is king for most involved creative computing endeavors. How about a novel new RAM management system that allows you to turn off half the RAM when on battery power and utilize full capacity when plugged in? Or *gasp* allow it as a user option to opt for a mode that clearly states it will significantly lower expected battery life? When the Retina systems first launched they were one of the few laptops you could configure with 16GB of RAM. Now they are one of the few higher end machines you can't configure for 32GB. This is the kind of decisions with this line that has continued to narrow the difference between alternate solutions while keeping as high a price premium as when it offered a lot more unique capability.
Both:
Pricing. Holy crap on a stick the pricing. I love me some tech. But wow. The surface Studio starts at 3 grand. And that is with 8GB of Ram only, 1 generation back mobile graphics, and without the latest ports. Top tier cost. Mid tier or worse specs with the exception of its high resolution touch screen tilt hinge. Yes it is impressive, but it is tied to an already creaking system and you can't use it with an independent system. The Macbook Pro line is sticking to its typical nosebleed section. The problem is its distance from the competition has been severely eroded. The touchbar is its first real party piece to give it some market place separation but is it enough? Do I want one? Yes. But my personal laptop use level has tanked since I stopped being able to dual use my personal equipment for work and horsepower and build quality wise I can get similar systems for quite a bit less money. That means I am left paying the Apple tax for OS X over Windows X (much less of a compromise than windows 8 and back) and for the touch bar if I plunk down for one. Probably the biggest problem Apple is facing here from my stand point is the following. For approximately the cost of a top line iPad I can get a decent spec Surface Pro 4 which can meet the needs of a tablet and what I need from a laptop. And for the cost of a well speced Macbook Pro I can get a SurfaceBook that also meets tablet and high end laptop needs. On the Mac side I would want both an iPad and the Laptop which would cost quite a bit more... talking mid 2k cost vs 4k... and a bit. That is a lot of cheddar to stick with an OS and a half inch wide 11 inch long touch screen. This is making me wonder if the success of Surface will finally get Apple to launch an OS X capable iPad. The new chip in the iPhone scaled to iPad release raises some interesting thoughts along those lines... if an ARM architecture can run OS X apps as they sit now seamlessly (doubtful).
What am I exited about?:
Touch is breaking out of small mobile form factors and starting to become a part of the general computing landscape. It is overdue. The notion of a large touch based screen for a desk has a huge appeal and introducing the general population to a drafting desk style interface makes a lot of sense to me. In 5 years we may well look back on this 'small' screen studio as a quaint begining. 60-70" 4k screens are already well under 1000 bucks. In 5 years a true 'desktop' display could be a reality at similar or even higher resolutions. Add in touch and this is starting to merge the power of the pen in hand way of being creative in many many ways that have been traditionally extremely different and.... disconnected when it comes to computer input. The revamping of the keyboard into a dynamic device has been hinted at in the past when some have tried to make dynamic display keys. Apple seems to have cracked how to actually make it work. I really could see sitting at a studio style device with a touchbar style keyboard that then allows you to easily move to a hands on pen and puck based drafting mode and back depending on the tasks you are performing.
What got announced?
Microsoft launched their Surface Studio all in one PC. Big desktop screen all in one computer ala an iMac. But the party trick is the hinge of the monitor allows the screen to tilt down to a 20 degree angled 'drafting' mode. Because that screen is multi touch capable and compatible with their existing Surface Pen. It also comes with a puck that allows you to have a dial. The puck can sit on the desktop and be used to scroll through options/settings. And when in drafting mode it can actually rest on the surface studio screen and be detected, which allows it to produce graphics along its base to make it a dynamic dial. IE select from a color wheel by turning and the colors shift around on the screen based on you physically twisting the puck dial. This really does look useful and having done a fair amount of digital art work the thing had me salivating once I saw it tilted down and being able to use it as a drafting table. Something old is new again, in a very exciting way.
Apple launched their long overdue Macbook Pro updates and they came with a new 'Touch bar". Basically take the function keys up at the top of your keyboard that a large majority of users do not fully utilize and replace it with an OLED touch screen. This allows you to present dynamic touch based keys and interface items that change based on your current context. Similar to the puck concept for the surface pro you can down make physical touch based sliders as a part of your keyboard for scrolling through option settings etc... Pick through emoji. Scrub through charts/pictures etc... and even have touch screen function keys... namely an 'esc' key which the intertubes blew up over the loss of once the tech leaked. The end result is in theory a seamless addition of touch interface items without requiring the user to lift their hands from the keyboard. Of course, in addition to this they made everything smaller, lighter, more powerful and lasts longer. Oh yeah... and it has touch ID plumbed in.
So first off... I cannot speak to the performance of either. What interests me is Apple finally committing to a touch interface on the Macbook other than the track pad and Microsoft looking to perhaps have figured out how to move touch successfully onto a full desktop sized screen without the dreaded numb arms of death of holding your hands out in front of you at a computer. So in a way both of these product announcements represented Apple and Microsofts take on the way touch should be incorporated into the more traditional computer form factors.
This all goes back to something Steve Jobs (among others) pointed out as something users did not want based on testing. Namely, that interacting with a vertical screen in front of you for any length of time is not a good idea. My questions is did they ever actually consider changing the method by which you interact with your computer screen. Meaning move the screen so it isn't a vertical plane that you are interacting with raised hands? The answer seems to be yes. Just that Apple thought the answer to how to accomplish that was to make the screen as small and light as possible so that you used it in new ways/places. Hence the iPad and their continued refusal to incorporate touch into their traditional computing hardware. On the other hand, the PC world took the opening of large scale capacitive touch and moved it onto laptops where you still traditionally have a vertical screen or in many cases these days, a convertible hinge that alows you to sorta use a laptop like a big clunky tablet. The surface studio though makes a new assumption. That there is a better way to interact with your PC than sitting at a desk interacting with a vertical screen. The tilt down to 'draft table' mode is genius. It is the most 'Apple' thing I have seen since the original iPad announcement and it leverages a fairly common creative setup (standing at or on a stool leaning over at a drafting desk). Funny that it came from Microsoft. But not really surprising. Risk taking is typically something left for those looking to get to the top, rarely by those comfortably at the top. And in computer hardware right now Apple is the undisputed king and has been for 5+ years or so now.
What do I not like?
Surface Studio:
I have to agree with Norman Chan of tested.com who pointed out the Surface Studio concept is less attractive as an expensive all in one with questionable specs (for the cost mind you) than it would be as an expensive stand alone monitor solution that you could pair with any level desktop. The all in one internals on the computing side will get quickly dated... in fact considering it is launching with last generation mobile Nvidia graphics I think it is in fact launching out dated. And this is EXPENSIVE. It also lacks the higher bandwidth newer ports (thunderbolt/USB C) which means you can't drive that gorgeous display from a future system or even add a credible external graphics processing card. Hopefully MS figures this out either in the next generation by adding the necessary future proofing capabilities and or actually releasing this as a stand along monitor solution and not just as an all in one.
MacBook Pro:
For the Macbook Pro. I like the concept but I sense a firewire type debacle in the long run. Unless the notion of a touch bar interface gains wide acceptance the Mac OS laptop world is a niche market that will ultimately limit its adoption by the wider development community. It is elegant and potentially a very good solution but I question its long term staying power. I think apple needs to dump out a keyboard accessory with touchbar... and perhaps shockingly, I think they need to make it with 1st class PC compatibility in mind. Not likely... and it seems its compatibility will even be somewhat limited on OS X hardware as there does not appear to be SDK tools that would allow say a web developer to make a site that could utilize the touchbar for web interface elements. With the growing use of cloud based software this seems a silly oversight on Apple's part. Thankfully it is one that isn't that hard to rectify. The last thing bugging me on the Apple front is the refusal to offer a top tier mobile graphics solution in a 'PRO' lineup and the ability to add up to 32GB of RAM. RAM configurations are limited to 16GB and these are soldered in RAM chips, not something you can user upgrade. The problem is not the architecture, it is Apple's refusal to allow a configuration that will significantly harm battery life of the models. This further limits the Macbook PRO appeal in the PRO market where RAM is king for most involved creative computing endeavors. How about a novel new RAM management system that allows you to turn off half the RAM when on battery power and utilize full capacity when plugged in? Or *gasp* allow it as a user option to opt for a mode that clearly states it will significantly lower expected battery life? When the Retina systems first launched they were one of the few laptops you could configure with 16GB of RAM. Now they are one of the few higher end machines you can't configure for 32GB. This is the kind of decisions with this line that has continued to narrow the difference between alternate solutions while keeping as high a price premium as when it offered a lot more unique capability.
Both:
Pricing. Holy crap on a stick the pricing. I love me some tech. But wow. The surface Studio starts at 3 grand. And that is with 8GB of Ram only, 1 generation back mobile graphics, and without the latest ports. Top tier cost. Mid tier or worse specs with the exception of its high resolution touch screen tilt hinge. Yes it is impressive, but it is tied to an already creaking system and you can't use it with an independent system. The Macbook Pro line is sticking to its typical nosebleed section. The problem is its distance from the competition has been severely eroded. The touchbar is its first real party piece to give it some market place separation but is it enough? Do I want one? Yes. But my personal laptop use level has tanked since I stopped being able to dual use my personal equipment for work and horsepower and build quality wise I can get similar systems for quite a bit less money. That means I am left paying the Apple tax for OS X over Windows X (much less of a compromise than windows 8 and back) and for the touch bar if I plunk down for one. Probably the biggest problem Apple is facing here from my stand point is the following. For approximately the cost of a top line iPad I can get a decent spec Surface Pro 4 which can meet the needs of a tablet and what I need from a laptop. And for the cost of a well speced Macbook Pro I can get a SurfaceBook that also meets tablet and high end laptop needs. On the Mac side I would want both an iPad and the Laptop which would cost quite a bit more... talking mid 2k cost vs 4k... and a bit. That is a lot of cheddar to stick with an OS and a half inch wide 11 inch long touch screen. This is making me wonder if the success of Surface will finally get Apple to launch an OS X capable iPad. The new chip in the iPhone scaled to iPad release raises some interesting thoughts along those lines... if an ARM architecture can run OS X apps as they sit now seamlessly (doubtful).
What am I exited about?:
Touch is breaking out of small mobile form factors and starting to become a part of the general computing landscape. It is overdue. The notion of a large touch based screen for a desk has a huge appeal and introducing the general population to a drafting desk style interface makes a lot of sense to me. In 5 years we may well look back on this 'small' screen studio as a quaint begining. 60-70" 4k screens are already well under 1000 bucks. In 5 years a true 'desktop' display could be a reality at similar or even higher resolutions. Add in touch and this is starting to merge the power of the pen in hand way of being creative in many many ways that have been traditionally extremely different and.... disconnected when it comes to computer input. The revamping of the keyboard into a dynamic device has been hinted at in the past when some have tried to make dynamic display keys. Apple seems to have cracked how to actually make it work. I really could see sitting at a studio style device with a touchbar style keyboard that then allows you to easily move to a hands on pen and puck based drafting mode and back depending on the tasks you are performing.
Saturday, October 29, 2016
Election 2016: Some observations
What can be said about this mess that hasn't already been said? Not a whole lot I imagine. But I'll throw my two cents in anyway. First, some math.
~318 million. Approximate US population. (wiki)
~225 million. Approximate US voting age population. (pew research)
~60%. Approximate expected turnout of voting age population (~135 million, pew research)
~40%. Rough average of voting population that selected candidates in primary (~90 million, Wiki)
~7.5%. Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Clinton (~17 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
~6% . Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Trump (14 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
Translation. We are selecting our president based on the selections of 13.5% of our population. The opinion of 1 in 7 or so of our voting eligible citizens has determined the course of this election. Come next month we will select our president from the two nominated major party candidates. Whether or not that is a good thing I leave to the furball that is modern political discourse. The fact remains at this point that is what will happen barring a completely unprecedented surprise change in American voter behavior. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath waiting on that to occur. At the gross scale, electoral behavior is depressingly predictable. Just ask any campaign manager.
The way I read the tea leaves right now is the scale of results on 11/8 ranges from Landslide to Hillary up to Dead Heat for Trump. In the press the phrases you tend to hear are that Trumps path to victory are limited while Clinton has far more options. Or even more simply stated, if Florida falls Clinton it is almost assured to be game over for Trump.
Could there be a silent unpolled Republican hoard embarrassed to admit their support for Trump if polled (or just plain not being polled?) but willing to go to the booth? Well... it isn't impossible. The "fun" of those numbers up there is that there are ~88 million votes out there that COULD be cast above and beyond what the typical turn out would bring. Which is plenty and to spare to throw all current predictions out the window. In fact if all cast for the same candidate it is more than enough to elect someone. As things stand, the winner will likely net somewhere in the 70 million range. If it really goes lopsided it might get into the 80's.
It is beyond unlikely such a turn out swell will happen. And even if we did have a magic voter turn out approaching 100% then statistically they are still much more likely break along similar lines of voters that are already expected to go to the polls. Statistics are a bitch. And with most voter registration closed there is no evidence of some massive swell which really could not be missed. Finally, considering the demographics most prone to not being registered or to not vote when registered... it is unlikely a 100% turnout would tilt in favor Trump.
Even considering all that. In the end I only have one assured prediction for what is going to happen. In general the sheeple of the country will remain far more fixated on the headline crap of whoever is in or wants to be in the Oval office and less time understanding what is going on in congress or their local state government. My biggest gripe with the ballot I am going to face in November is not the 4 national candidates for president. It is all the single party unopposed candidates I am looking at on the rest of the damn ballot for local Alabama elections. That depresses me and makes me not want to bother. Because for the above to change... local elections have to change. My gripe with the media is instead of mainstream coverage being primarily about tearing apart candidate policy (at all levels) and breaking down the complicated issues to try and help as many folks grasp them as possible, they are instead rehashing over and over again tabloid news stories. On BOTH major national candidates and on down through the ranks. Perhaps worse is that the majority of the support I have heard for both national candidates is not about the candidate, but instead is a condemnation of their opponent. Like them or not. Like their history or not one of these two is going to be making some pretty important decisions for the next 4 years and I'd like it if we would turn our attention there. But... I am not holding my breath.
One last non election observation before signing off. I find it absolutely horrifying that we are having a stand still on the appointment to the supreme court. I would say this regardless of which side did the stonewalling. This is a reflection of the overall lack of ability of the parties to work across the isles and their respective electorates to stomach it when they do. Disapprove a candidate fine. Disapprove 100 candidates fine. But to refuse to even bring candidates before the houses of congress for consideration is unconscionable. This refusal to discharge a basic constitutional responsibility is dangerous.
I hope to have some time to sit down before the 8th and tear into one of the few things that seems to bear some number crunching from these two. Taxes and the Debt. Not that I think it will change anything but I want to see what those numbers are saying because it seems experts in the field find both candidates proposals a bunch of hooey and that 20 Trillion debt number is something I find rather alarming. On the local front I am wanting to dig a bit more into amendment 2 about the Alabama state parks and how they are funded.
~318 million. Approximate US population. (wiki)
~225 million. Approximate US voting age population. (pew research)
~60%. Approximate expected turnout of voting age population (~135 million, pew research)
~40%. Rough average of voting population that selected candidates in primary (~90 million, Wiki)
~7.5%. Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Clinton (~17 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
~6% . Rough percentage of eligible voters that selected Trump (14 mil votes in primary, Wiki)
Translation. We are selecting our president based on the selections of 13.5% of our population. The opinion of 1 in 7 or so of our voting eligible citizens has determined the course of this election. Come next month we will select our president from the two nominated major party candidates. Whether or not that is a good thing I leave to the furball that is modern political discourse. The fact remains at this point that is what will happen barring a completely unprecedented surprise change in American voter behavior. I wouldn't suggest holding your breath waiting on that to occur. At the gross scale, electoral behavior is depressingly predictable. Just ask any campaign manager.
The way I read the tea leaves right now is the scale of results on 11/8 ranges from Landslide to Hillary up to Dead Heat for Trump. In the press the phrases you tend to hear are that Trumps path to victory are limited while Clinton has far more options. Or even more simply stated, if Florida falls Clinton it is almost assured to be game over for Trump.
Could there be a silent unpolled Republican hoard embarrassed to admit their support for Trump if polled (or just plain not being polled?) but willing to go to the booth? Well... it isn't impossible. The "fun" of those numbers up there is that there are ~88 million votes out there that COULD be cast above and beyond what the typical turn out would bring. Which is plenty and to spare to throw all current predictions out the window. In fact if all cast for the same candidate it is more than enough to elect someone. As things stand, the winner will likely net somewhere in the 70 million range. If it really goes lopsided it might get into the 80's.
It is beyond unlikely such a turn out swell will happen. And even if we did have a magic voter turn out approaching 100% then statistically they are still much more likely break along similar lines of voters that are already expected to go to the polls. Statistics are a bitch. And with most voter registration closed there is no evidence of some massive swell which really could not be missed. Finally, considering the demographics most prone to not being registered or to not vote when registered... it is unlikely a 100% turnout would tilt in favor Trump.
Even considering all that. In the end I only have one assured prediction for what is going to happen. In general the sheeple of the country will remain far more fixated on the headline crap of whoever is in or wants to be in the Oval office and less time understanding what is going on in congress or their local state government. My biggest gripe with the ballot I am going to face in November is not the 4 national candidates for president. It is all the single party unopposed candidates I am looking at on the rest of the damn ballot for local Alabama elections. That depresses me and makes me not want to bother. Because for the above to change... local elections have to change. My gripe with the media is instead of mainstream coverage being primarily about tearing apart candidate policy (at all levels) and breaking down the complicated issues to try and help as many folks grasp them as possible, they are instead rehashing over and over again tabloid news stories. On BOTH major national candidates and on down through the ranks. Perhaps worse is that the majority of the support I have heard for both national candidates is not about the candidate, but instead is a condemnation of their opponent. Like them or not. Like their history or not one of these two is going to be making some pretty important decisions for the next 4 years and I'd like it if we would turn our attention there. But... I am not holding my breath.
One last non election observation before signing off. I find it absolutely horrifying that we are having a stand still on the appointment to the supreme court. I would say this regardless of which side did the stonewalling. This is a reflection of the overall lack of ability of the parties to work across the isles and their respective electorates to stomach it when they do. Disapprove a candidate fine. Disapprove 100 candidates fine. But to refuse to even bring candidates before the houses of congress for consideration is unconscionable. This refusal to discharge a basic constitutional responsibility is dangerous.
I hope to have some time to sit down before the 8th and tear into one of the few things that seems to bear some number crunching from these two. Taxes and the Debt. Not that I think it will change anything but I want to see what those numbers are saying because it seems experts in the field find both candidates proposals a bunch of hooey and that 20 Trillion debt number is something I find rather alarming. On the local front I am wanting to dig a bit more into amendment 2 about the Alabama state parks and how they are funded.
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